There is a grim pattern to Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine: Whenever the Russian army is bogged down, or is being driven backward, his forces strike at Ukrainian civilians with missiles and drones.
It’s a tactic, aimed at sapping Ukrainian morale and public support for the war, that Russia has used throughout the invasion, which was launched more than four years ago. But the air strikes have become more devastating in recent months, as Russia exploits Ukraine’s growing shortage of American-made air defence missiles.
The latest demonstration came Tuesday, when Russia launched a barrage of 656 drones and 73 missiles at Kyiv, Dnipro and other Ukrainian cities in one of the deadliest assaults of the war. At least 22 people were killed, and more than 100 people were injured.
Although Kyiv was the main target of the attack, it was Dnipro, the country’s third-largest city, that was hit hardest. Sixteen people were killed and 42 were injured there in what Oleksandr Ganzha, head of the local military administration, said was a rocket strike on a residential neighbourhood. At least four children were among the dead, he said.
Ukraine’s air force said it had shot down more than 90 per cent of the drones that Russia launched Monday night and Tuesday morning – as well as 29 of 32 cruise missiles – but it was only able to intercept 11 of 33 Iskander-M ballistic missiles. Russia also launched eight Zircon hypersonic missiles as part of the attack, all of which reached their targets.
Residents gather outside an apartment building in Kyiv damaged during Russian missile and drone strikes.Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters
Moscow had been warning for days about a major attack on Kyiv, advising foreign embassies to leave the city and saying it would target Ukraine’s “decision-making centres.” No embassies are known to have evacuated.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov portrayed Tuesday’s barrage as revenge for a May 22 Ukrainian missile strike on a college dormitory in the Russian-occupied region of Luhansk. While the Ukrainian military said it had targeted a military facility in the town of Starobilsk, Russian state media reported that 21 civilians – reportedly students at Luhansk Pedagogical University – were killed.
Mr. Peskov said that the war had entered a “new paradigm” after the Starobilsk incident, which would see “systematic” strikes carried out on Kyiv and other cities.
Mr. Putin and his entourage, however, have rarely shown concern about civilian casualties over the course of a war that has killed hundreds of thousands of people and forced millions more to flee their homes. It’s a war that Mr. Putin instigated, and one he could end at any moment.
The “new paradigm” seems to have been motivated instead by the Russian army’s failure to break through Ukrainian defensive lines in the country’s southeastern Donbas region, which Mr. Putin claims as Russian territory. After two years of slowly but relentlessly grinding forward, Russia’s advance has come to an effective halt in 2026.
A resident stands at a site of a Russian drone and missile strike in Kyiv.Stringer/Reuters
“Since Russian forces are no longer capable of achieving results on the battlefield, Putin’s concept is to exert pressure on Ukraine’s civilian population,” said Mykhailo Samus, a Kyiv-based military analyst. “He believes that, by killing people and terrorizing Ukrainian cities, the Ukrainian public will begin to protest against Zelensky and demand ‘peace’ – in other words, Ukraine’s immediate capitulation.”
The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War estimated this week that Russian forces had actually been driven back from 281 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory over the past six months, while capturing just 41 square kilometres. Military analysts attribute the reversal on the battlefield to Ukraine’s widespread use of cheap attack drones, which have made it almost impossible for Russia’s tanks and artillery pieces to move near the front lines without being hit.
In parallel, Ukraine has carried out a campaign of long-range drone strikes deep inside Russia, repeatedly targeting the country’s military supply chain, as well as its oil industry – and even Moscow itself. The threat of drone strikes is believed to have caused Mr. Putin to dramatically scale back the country’s annual Victory Day parade on May 9, which in past years served as a demonstration of the country’s military prowess.
One remaining advantage Russia has over Ukraine is its arsenal of ballistic missiles. It’s an edge that’s growing as Kyiv runs dangerously low on U.S.-supplied Patriot air defence missiles.
There is now a global shortage of the missiles, a crisis that deepened after more than 1,000 were fired by the United States and its allies around the Middle East during the first two weeks of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran. That number is believed to exceed the annual production capacity of Lockheed Martin, the only company that produces the PAC-3 interceptor missiles that the Patriot systems fire.
Russia launched hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles against Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities overnight, killing at least 22 civilians and wounding 138 others, authorities said Tuesday.
The Associated Press
While Ukrainian anti-aircraft batteries have become adept at shooting down Russian explosive drones and cruise missiles, only the Patriot systems have proven effective against ballistic missiles.
Signalling his rising concern, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky took the unusual step of sending a letter to U.S. President Donald Trump and every member of Congress last week, urging them to help Ukraine secure more PAC-3 interceptors.
While the U.S. stopped direct military aid to Ukraine when Mr. Trump took office last year, it had allowed other NATO allies to purchase weapons on Kyiv’s behalf. Mr. Zelensky wrote that deliveries via the NATO program were “no longer keeping up with the reality of the threat we face.”
In response to the letter, Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth said the U.S. would “find a way” to help Ukraine defend its skies. However, Mr. Hegseth has skipped the past two meetings of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group, where Kyiv’s allies gather to co-ordinate military and other assistance to the war-torn country.
After Tuesday’s attacks, Mr. Zelensky took to social media to repeat his plea for the U.S. to send more help.
“We urgently need help from the United States in supplying missiles for the Patriot systems,” he wrote on his Telegram channel. “If Ukraine is not protected from ballistic and other missile strikes, these attacks will continue.”