Xi pushes Trump on Taiwan as U.S. and China seek reset in Beijing

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Mishandling the self-ruled island of Taiwan could lead the U.S. and China to conflict, Chinese President Xi Jinping said Thursday, as he and U.S. leader Donald Trump agreed to a new “constructive strategic and stable relationship” at a summit in Beijing.

China, which claims Taiwan as its territory and has threatened to annex the democracy by force, has been hoping to pressure Mr. Trump to scale back, delay or even cancel a planned arms sale to Taipei, as the Taiwanese government seeks to build up its military in response both to Chinese aggression and pressure from the White House to bear more of the burden for its own defence.

Meeting Mr. Trump in the Great Hall of the People on Thursday, Mr. Xi said Taiwan was the “most important issue in China-U.S. relations,” and if handled properly, “the bilateral relationship will enjoy overall stability.”

“Otherwise, the two countries will have clashes and even conflicts, putting the entire relationship in great jeopardy,” Mr. Xi said, according to a Chinese readout.

A summary of the meeting released by the White House did not mention Taiwan, saying the two sides “discussed ways to enhance economic co-operation between our two countries, including expanding market access for American businesses into China and increasing Chinese investment into our industries.”

Michelle Lee, a spokeswoman for Taiwan’s cabinet, said Thursday, “China’s military threat is the sole source of insecurity in the Taiwan Strait and the broader Indo-Pacific region.”

Reiterating Taiwan’s desire to secure an additional US$14-billion in arms from the U.S., she told reporters “continuously strengthening national defence and effective collective deterrence is the single most critical factor in ensuring regional peace and stability.”

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China has ramped up pressure against Taiwan in recent years, blocking the island from participating in international events, picking off its few remaining diplomatic allies, and staging large-scale war games in the air and water around it.

Even as the U.S. military has been stretched by the war in Iran and Washington has drawn down on forces in Asia as a result, most analysts do not believe China is ready to stage any invasion of Taiwan, in part due to continuing purges in the Chinese People’s Liberation Army.

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A recent assessment by the U.S. intelligence community said fears Beijing might seek to annex Taiwan as early as 2027 were overstated, noting, “China, despite its threat to use force to compel unification if necessary and to ⁠counter what it sees as a U.S. attempt to use Taiwan to undermine China’s rise, prefers to achieve unification without the use of force, if ​possible.”

Tough rhetoric on Taiwan has long been a feature of high-level exchanges between China and the U.S., almost becoming a pro-forma topic, with both sides stating their well-rehearsed positions before moving on to other matters. Mr. Trump’s unpredictability and desire for deal-making, as well as his occasionally critical remarks about Taiwan, had left some observers fearing he could make unusual concessions, however.

Writing ahead of Thursday’s summit, Mark Montgomery, a retired U.S. rear admiral and senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, cautioned against this.

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“Xi is likely to offer trade deals and rare earth co-operation, if Trump will constrain arms sales or acknowledge that the United States opposes Taiwan’s independence. Xi will calibrate his appeal to a president who thinks transactionally,” he wrote.

“President Trump should recognize that Taiwan is offering the far better deal. It has already done what Washington would want from an ally. It is a democracy. It is spending over 3 per cent of GDP on defence and committed to 5 per cent. It is buying American weapons specifically designed for its threat environment. It is standing daily against a U.S. peer adversary. And it is the source of the semiconductor chips that energize American economic and military power in the twenty-first century.”

The White House statement said Mr. Xi and Mr. Trump had agreed “that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open to support the free flow of energy.”

“President Xi also made clear China’s opposition to the militarization of the Strait and any effort to charge a toll for its use, and he expressed interest in purchasing more American oil to reduce China’s dependence on the Strait in the future,” it added. “Both countries agreed that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon.”

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China’s foreign ministry said the two leaders had agreed to establish a new “constructive strategic and stable relationship.”

“Both sides should work together to maintain the hard-won positive momentum,” the statement added. “China’s door to opening up will only open wider, and American companies are deeply involved in China’s reform and opening up. China welcomes the U.S. to strengthen mutually beneficial co-operation with China.”

It quoted Mr. Trump as saying “the U.S. and China are the most important and powerful countries in the world,” and “U.S.-China co-operation can accomplish many great and beneficial things for both countries and the world.”

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