Good morning. In focus today: We look at how a “new normal” played a role in propelling a boisterous year on Bay Street. Ahead of that, a snapshot of the Trump administration’s momentous week.
Up first
Washington turns up the heat
The U.S. government escalated its bid to control resources across the Western Hemisphere this week, seizing Venezuelan oil tankers days after U.S. forces arrested the country’s president, and refusing to rule out military action to take over Greenland.
- The tanker seizures yesterday marked a shift from financial sanctions to direct intervention in oil flows, representing the first case of U.S. forces taking physical control of Venezuelan crude shipments since broader restrictions were imposed in 2019.
- The White House also said yesterday it would “prefer” diplomacy in its efforts to acquire Greenland, a self-governing territory of Denmark, which is a founding member of NATO. U.S. President Donald Trump floated the idea of buying the country in his first term, calling it “essentially … a large real-estate deal.”
- But speaking with reporters in Washington yesterday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said military force is not off the table.
- “If the President identifies a threat to the national security of the United States, every President retains the option to address it through military means,” he said.
- The region is a key piece in the U.S. ballistic missile early-warning system, and Russia and China have shown interest in the island’s untapped rare-earth deposits.
- Rubio is planning to meet with Danish officials next week.
Toronto's Financial District earlier this week. When it rains (money), it pours (money).Cole Burston/The Globe and Mail
In focus
Bay’s big year: Don’t call it a comeback
Canada’s capital markets snapped back in 2025. Companies returned to equity markets after a long freeze, corporate bond issuance climbed to its highest level in more than a decade, and deal-making pushed back toward the highs of the pandemic-era boom.
If you saw these numbers in passing, you might assume a return to normal.
You’d be right, and you might even be smarter than you think: The numbers are more recognizable to investors and executives who remember the Before Times, but they also reflect a “normal” as we’ve come to understand that concept in an era shaped by the pandemic, a U.S. trade war and persistent uncertainty about what comes next.
Across markets, Jameson Berkow reports, Corporate Canada prioritized securing access over waiting for clarity – raising money, refinancing and changing who owns them to reduce exposure to trade and policy risk.
The result was a wave of capital moving through Canadian markets at a scale not seen since BlackBerry thought it could beat the iPhone. Canadian public companies issued $31.4-billion in new shares in 2025, more than double the $15.5-billion raised in 2024 and about 2 per cent below the 10-year average, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.
Corporate bond issuance exceeded $100-billion for the year. Mergers and acquisitions involving Canadian companies totalled about US$303-billion in 2025, the second-highest annual level in the past decade.
That rush might reflect a persistent worry from Canadian businesses, which have been bingeing on debt in recent months as they seek to retool in the face of trade war threats.
Even as Canada’s top economists predict a gradual improvement in the country’s overall fortunes, businesses surveyed by the Bank of Canada say they expect to hold back on investing and keep or lower staffing levels. Close to half of them said they planned to prioritize maintenance over growth.
A chunk of the debt deals came late in the year, and earlier than planned. December alone produced roughly $13-billion in corporate bond sales – an unusually busy finish as issuers chose certainty of funding over waiting for the possibility of calmer markets.
Patrick MacDonald, co-head of Canadian debt capital markets at RBC, said the data show companies were able to navigate market and trade volatility, and capitalized on “an exceptionally supportive funding environment.”
The bank has estimated that upward of $120-billion of Canadian corporate debt will need to be refinanced in 2026, which would be enough to keep the deals rolling. And as Canadian officials attempt to make meaningful progress in talks with the White House, guarding against instability remains a priority for most Canadian businesses.
What business leaders are seeing in the political landscape isn’t giving them the sense they can wait it out. It hasn’t been a week since the U.S. invaded Venezuela and pronounced it would restore its oil sector, the Coalition of the Willing hasn’t been willing to share much that would have us believe Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will soon end, and Trump isn’t behaving like someone coming to the free-trade negotiations in July with an open heart.
What will the next year bring? Whatever you’re imagining: Yes, quite possibly! Imagine planning for that, with investors to please, people to employ, money to be made.
In the face of constant uncertainty and ever-moving goal posts, the rush of deal-making shows that businesses are doing most of what politicians and policymakers can’t – and that’s normal. But is a market building around instability a normal we can count on?
Charted
A quake awaits
Canada has an average of 4,000 earthquakes every year. That number is higher than I would’ve guessed, but most of those quakes are minor events, Clare O’Hara reports. For insurers, a catastrophic earthquake − an event that experts say could hit Canada within the next 50 years − would be ... catastrophic.
Quoted
There are staggering legal, financial and security risks for American energy companies that cannot be ignored willy-nilly by C-suite executives and corporate directors.
Despite Trump’s phantasm, returning to Venezuela is too risky for U.S. oil majors, Rita Trichur writes.
Noted
More files we’re following
In the ocean: Ottawa has asked the governments of South Korea and Germany, two countries with companies bidding to build the Canadian navy’s next submarine, to facilitate auto industry production pledges in Canada as part of the pitches, a source familiar with the matter said.
In the sky: Canadian airlines are cutting U.S.-bound capacity by 10 per cent during the busy snowbird season.
By the numbers: Canada reports its trade balance data for October this morning. Economists are expecting a deficit as exports to the U.S. slowed.
(If the U.S. hadn’t shut down, we’d be reading the November report today. Statistics Canada says it plans to publish on an accelerated schedule as the U.S. shares more data, and it aims to catch up to this February by April. Got it?)
It makes sense, trust me.
Heating up: Bo Bichette’s favourite restaurant, Animl Steakhouse Toronto, is offering him steak for life if he signs with the Blue Jays. Well done.
Morning update
Global stocks lost momentum as investors assessed the implications of deepening geopolitical tensions and mixed U.S. labour market data.
Wall Street futures were in the red, while TSX futures pointed lower after Canada’s main stock index snapped its winning streak yesterday.
Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 was down 0.35 per cent in morning trading. Britain’s FTSE 100 declined 0.22 per cent, Germany’s DAX gave back 0.13 per cent and France’s CAC 40 slid 0.24 per cent.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei closed 1.63 per cent lower, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.17 per cent.
The Canadian dollar traded at 72.11 U.S. cents.