Good morning. A week packed with key economic reports and events is ahead. More on that below – along with Canada‘s new face in Washington, and the trouble with curbing steel imports.
Up first
In the news
Real estate: Canada’s residential market slumped in November, with sales declining and home prices falling as sellers offered discounts to move properties.
Quantum: The federal government is expected to unveil a program today aimed at supporting key homegrown players in the emerging quantum computing space.
Climate: An American start-up pitching a way to cut carbon capture costs in half is targeting Alberta’s oil sands.
Shoppers brave a Costco in Toronto last week.Sammy Kogan/The Globe and Mail
In focus
Making our lists, checking their price
Inflation watch
Canada’s November inflation data this morning is largely expected to show prices rising at a mild pace – but the more telling story might be in the grocery aisle.
Food prices are projected to have risen 3 per cent year-over-year, and could jump another 4 to 6 per cent over 2026.
The Bank of Canada’s preferred measures of inflation, which filter out extreme price swings, show stable underlying price growth. But households are feeling the pressure at the checkout: a family of four could be facing an increase of nearly $1,000 in their annual food bill in 2026, according to a recent report.
Help might be on the horizon. The grocery sector code of conduct isn’t designed to address high food prices – the most common public complaint in the industry – but it could help consumers in other ways.
Karen Proud, the president and adjudicator of the office overseeing the code, which takes effect on Jan. 1, told retailing reporter Susan Krashinsky Robertson that setting rules for major retailers and their suppliers could result in smaller companies getting their products on shelves – providing more choice for shoppers.
Carney’s Wiseman in Washington
Globe reports that Canadian financier Mark Wiseman will be the next ambassador to the United States are expected to be confirmed in the coming days.
Wiseman will take over from Kirsten Hillman, who has served in Washington since 2017, and will occupy Canada’s most important diplomatic role as the country prepares for intense USMCA talks.
From the fans:
- Wiseman is a close friend of Prime Minister Mark Carney and brings extensive business connections stateside.
- Officials believe his financial background will be respected by Trump’s top trade advisers.
From the critics:
- Wiseman has no formal diplomatic or government experience. (Neither did Carney! Maybe I’ve still got a shot.)
- Opposition parties seized on a social-media post Wiseman shared in May, 2023, which said that immigration aimed to expand the country’s population to “100-million may not be federal policy, but it should be – even if it makes Quebec howl.”
- Both the Bloc and Conservatives said sharing that comment makes him ill-suited to negotiate on behalf of Quebec.
South of the border
After the record-long government shutdown delayed key economic reports, November inflation and labour data will give investors a welcome gauge of the economy’s footing and help determine the Federal Reserve’s next rate move.
The U.S. jobs report for November is due tomorrow; the monthly consumer price index is published on Thursday.
In announcing its third-consecutive cut last week, the Fed’s guidance didn’t leave a whole lot of room for interpretation. The central bank could be done making moves under the stewardship of Jerome Powell, but some economists still see one more cut in January as a possibility.
At the bell
BlackBerry reports on Thursday after the close. If history is any guide, Amber Kanwar writes in her weekly earnings setup, the enterprise software company could beat expectations once again.
Some analysts are expecting a rosy forecast on the back of double-digit growth for QNX, its in-car infotainment platform. You can read more on that venture in this story by technology reporter Sean Silcoff.
Nike also reports results on Thursday. The retail index has been speeding ahead of the market – rising 8 per cent over the past month, while the S&P 500 flattened. Suddenly, sporty clothing and footwear is looking good.
Maybe it’s time to wave goodbye to AI and leap into sock stocks?
Micron Technology Inc. investors might beg to differ. Shares of the semiconductor giant have risen nearly 200 per cent this year as hyperscalers pay up for their memory chips. Analysts are expecting the company to paint a bright picture of the year ahead in its earnings report on Wednesday. One for the memory banks.
Also on our radar
- After the Bank of Canada held its benchmark lending rate last week and signalled a sustained pause, attention turns back to Governor Tiff Macklem as he addresses the Montreal Chamber of Commerce tomorrow.
- A new release due Thursday will show whether employer payroll data is beginning to improve. The most recent Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours data showed payroll employment was essentially flat in September compared with a year earlier, while the Labour Force Survey pointed to an increase of 228,000 paid employees over the same period.
Charted
Steel sorting it out
With Canadian steel exports to the U.S. in free fall, Ottawa has taken a series of escalating steps to shore up demand for the country’s steel mills by restricting imports of foreign-made metal. The measures have been welcomed by domestic steel producers, Mark Rendell reports – but they’ve drawn warnings of shortages and rising prices from buyers in the West.
Quoted
I can’t live knowing that my herd is safe for 360 days a year, for five days a year they might drown.
— Matt Dykshoorn, farmer
Residents and farmers in the Fraser Valley are hoping for water levels to continue falling as they begin to take stock of the damage inflicted by floods that burst over the Nooksack River’s banks.
Morning update
Global markets steadied with European shares moving higher, but investor caution capped gains at the start of a week loaded with big central bank decisions and economic data.
Wall Street futures pointed to a recovery from last week’s selloff, while TSX futures followed sentiment higher
Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 was up 0.8 per cent in morning trading. Britain’s FTSE 100 rose 0.9 per cent, Germany’s DAX gained 0.49 per cent and France’s CAC 40 advanced 1.05 per cent.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei closed 1.31 per cent lower, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.34 per cent.
The Canadian dollar traded at 72.60 U.S. cents.