PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon speaks at a news conference in front of the National Assembly, in Quebec City on Sept. 8.Jacques Boissinot/The Canadian Press
The Parti Québécois’s commitment to a third referendum on independence took centre stage in the Quebec election campaign this week, despite the party’s best efforts to shift the attention of a nervous electorate away from the question of sovereignty.
On Friday, the PQ confirmed it will cost at least $130-million to hold an independence referendum in a first mandate, as Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has promised to do if his party forms government on Oct. 5.
Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon also said this week that he would pursue a referendum even without a majority government – a challenging proposition that would require support from members of opposition parties.
Meanwhile, Christine Fréchette, leader of the governing Coalition Avenir Québec and Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon’s chief rival, tripped up over the independence question this week when she refused – not for the first time – to say if she is a sovereigntist despite her opposition to a referendum.
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Sovereignty is broadly unpopular in Quebec, with support for independence stuck around 30 per cent as the escalating Canada-U.S. trade war looms over the campaign. Last month, Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon announced he would not hold a referendum until after U.S. President Donald Trump leaves office. Mr. Trump’s current term is meant to end Jan. 20, 2029. The move was the PQ Leader’s bid to focus the campaign elsewhere.
For a while, that seemed to work. In the early days of the campaign, other issues were shunted aside as the major party leaders jockeyed to position themselves as best equipped to defend Quebec’s interests against a hostile U.S. administration.
But the PQ Leader faced repeated questions this week about his insistence on a referendum. In an interview with The Canadian Press published Friday, he said the party has budgeted $20-million for a travelling commission that would consult on the adoption of a provisional constitution.
Holding a referendum in 2029 or 2030 would cost at least $110-million, he said. The party has confirmed the figures to The Globe and Mail.
The PQ has been leading in the polls for the better part of three years, but currently seems unlikely to form a majority government. Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon maintained several times this week that his commitment to a referendum would not change in a minority context.
“I think I have a responsibility to keep my promises,” he told a panel of Radio-Canada journalists during a televised event Wednesday featuring interviews with each of the five main party leaders.
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In Quebec, the National Assembly must adopt the text of a referendum question drafted by the government, meaning a PQ minority would require support from opposition parties to trigger a vote on independence.
Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon suggested that some members of the nationalist CAQ, the sovereigntist Québec Solidaire and the Quebec Conservatives could support a PQ minority. “There are plenty of scenarios,” he said.
However, Conservative Leader Éric Duhaime was quick to say this week that if his party holds the balance of power in a minority government, he would “block any referendum project.” The Conservatives are projected to win seats in the provincial legislature for the first time this fall.
Leader of the governing Coalition Avenir Québec, Christine Fréchette, speaks during a news conference in Montreal, in August.Graham Hughes/The Canadian Press
Ms. Fréchette has also said repeatedly that this would be the “worst moment” in the 50 years since the Parti Québécois first formed government to hold a referendum, given the tariff war with the United States.
But on Thursday, she refused to say whether she herself remains a sovereigntist. “My personal position doesn’t matter,” she told reporters.
Ms. Fréchette worked as a staffer for the Parti Québécois between 2012 and 2014. This is not the first time she has refused to say how she would vote in a third referendum on independence.
“What I’ve observed is that 70 per cent of Quebeckers don’t want a referendum,” she said in a video posted later to social media.
Liberal Leader Charles Milliard, who has cast his party as the only federalist option, demanded that Ms. Fréchette clarify her position, calling her answer “shameful.”
When QS Leader Ruba Ghazal was asked if she would support the PQ’s sovereignty referendum, she said her party would campaign for an independent Quebec, but also advocate for broad public consultations to ensure “everyone is on board.”
QS co-spokespersons Ruba Ghazal, left, and Sol Zanetti arrive for the launch of the party's election campaign in Montreal, in August.Graham Hughes/The Canadian Press
The “most plausible ally” for the PQ in launching a referendum is the QS, said Patrick Taillon, professor of constitutional law at Laval University.
However, given their strong disagreements over everything from government spending to immigration, and QS’s weaker emphasis on independence as opposed to social justice, there is no guarantee the parties would work together on a referendum project.
It is also unclear how many of their 11 seats QS will retain after the election, given the party’s weak position in the polls currently.
On top of unreliable support in the legislature, the PQ faces a number of self-imposed hurdles to launching a referendum in its first mandate, Prof. Taillon noted.
“The PQ’s roadmap includes several steps before the referendum: consultations on a provisional constitution, adoption of that constitution by the National Assembly, and dialogue with First Nations. Even apart from the question of a minority government, this represents a fairly demanding timetable.”
With reports from The Canadian Press