PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon said the debate over Quebec’s future 'must not be hijacked by the ups and downs of American politics.'Christinne Muschi/The Canadian Press
Parti Québécois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon says if his party forms government he will not hold a referendum on independence in Quebec until after U.S. President Donald Trump leaves the White House.
In a statement posted to social media Tuesday, Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon said the debate over Quebec’s future “must not be hijacked by the ups and downs of American politics, nor by the outbursts of an unpredictable president, nor by fear campaigns.”
Though he is sticking to his promise to hold a referendum in a first mandate if he becomes premier after this fall’s provincial election, he now says that referendum will not take place until after Jan. 20, 2029, when Mr. Trump’s second term is set to end.
Mr. Trump’s trade war and “51st state” musings have triggered an upswell of national unity in Canada since he was inaugurated in January, 2025. But in Quebec, the sovereigntist PQ is leading in the polls, and in Alberta, residents are preparing for an Oct. 19 referendum on whether to remain in Canada or lay the legal groundwork for a second, binding secession vote.
Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon’s statement, published days before the Quebec election campaign is expected to start, appears to be an attempt to shift the focus of the campaign to other issues. While the Parti Québécois is polling ahead of the governing Coalition Avenir Québec and the opposition Liberals, public opinion surveys consistently show support for sovereignty in Quebec is only around 30 per cent.
“There is a broad consensus in Quebec that, after eight years of CAQ government, Quebec needs real change,” Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon wrote Tuesday. “The vote must therefore focus first and foremost on this fundamental question: Who can we trust to put Quebec back on the right track?”
The Quebec election must take place by Oct. 5.
In April, a Leger poll found that support for the PQ would jump eight points, from 31 per cent to 39 per cent, if the party abandoned its promise for a referendum in the next four years. But Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon, who has promised a referendum since he was elected leader of the party in 2020, has never backed down.
Sébastien Dallaire, chief insights officer for Leger, said in an interview that Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon has support from Quebeckers who want a sovereignty vote and others who don’t. The PQ Leader’s statement showed him trying to manage both groups while addressing concerns about economic uncertainty that Mr. Trump has fomented, Mr. Dallaire said.
The PQ Leader may also be trying to distance his party from Alberta’s upcoming vote on secession, which Mr. Dallaire said could turn off Quebec electors if the Oct. 19 referendum in the Prairie province grows overly contentious – particularly if Mr. Trump gets involved in the campaign.
“For the PQ, it’s important to try to disentangle the referendum from the current context,” Mr. Dallaire said.
Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon’s political opponents teed off on his Tuesday announcement, saying an independence referendum would be a reckless gambit even after Mr. Trump is out of office.
Quebec Premier Christine Fréchette said in a statement that the PQ Leader’s statement was an admission that holding a referendum would be too risky for the province. She described his plan as “irresponsible.”
“This morning, we’re learning that the U.S. elections are dictating Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s agenda – this is ridiculous,” Ms. Fréchette wrote.
“The only certainty we have is that Paul St-Pierre Plamondon will call on Quebecers to vote in a referendum during his first term – and he’ll do so at the worst possible time for our economy.”
Charles Milliard, leader of the Quebec Liberal Party, called for a “return to the path of alliances.”
“He’s right about one thing: It is risky. But what’s risky today will still be risky after Donald Trump,” Mr. Milliard wrote in a statement.
In February, Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon conceded that some voters “are genuinely afraid” of a referendum in the current geopolitical context, and suggested his government could wait to hold a vote until after Mr. Trump leaves office.
“The Parti Québécois will use intelligence and judgment in choosing the right moment for all decisions because our priority will always be to protect Quebeckers,” he said at the time.
His statement Tuesday made that suggestion official. “I have chosen to completely defuse the argument that this would be the worst possible time to think about our future because of Trump, by ruling out the possibility of a referendum being held before the end of his second term,” he said.
“This will allow us to run a campaign focused on our proposals to help Quebeckers and revitalize our future, rather than on repetitive and fruitless fear-mongering.”
Editor’s note: A previous version of this story incorrectly included a photo of Charles Millard, leader of Quebec's Liberal party. It has been replaced with a photo of PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon.