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A quiet news day let crude catch its breath near the 50 day moving average, but the underlying story hasn't changed. EIA draws came in significant again, US supply is sitting near tank bottoms, and both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea remain either threatened or shut down. The post-Fed dollar weakness should add more fuel to demand just as the world's ability to actually source oil keeps shrinking. Nothing exploded today, but the setup underneath this market is getting tighter by the week.
Overnight, the US followed through on Trump's promise and struck Iranian military infrastructure, with reports of LNG tankers docked in Egypt also getting hit. By most measures that should send crude flying. Instead, it's moving lower. The market's read is that these strikes and the militia attacks that triggered them don't reflect Iranian leadership's actual appetite for peace, so traders are treating this as noise rather than a real break from the ceasefire track. Risk still skews to the upside, but this is one of those mornings where price action and headlines are telling two different stories.
An expert look at light crude oil market trends, Elliott Wave setups, and price targets impacting Western Canadian grain marketing and fuel costs.
The ceasefire didn't survive the week. Iran fired ballistic missiles at US forces overnight, and the US and Saudi Arabia hit back against Iran-backed militias in Iraq who'd already been drone-striking Saudi oil infrastructure. Crude is waking up to the news, and traders who got comfortable with "de-escalation" are getting a reminder that this truce was never as solid as the headlines made it sound.
U.S.-Iran hostilities are on hold, Brent is correcting, but the risks and consequences haven't gone away.
Oil is back in the news, with a situation seemingly similar to that of last March: escalating hostilities, constraints in the Straits of Hormuz, and renewed prospects of rapidly tightening supply. But how does recent crude oil volatility rank historically? Brett Friedman, Winhall Risk Analytics/OptionMetrics Contributor leverages options data to take a look.
Energy Update - Morning Express - Blue Line Futures
Energy Update - Morning Express - Blue Line Futures
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The Trump administration has again acknowledged in court documents that it terminated $7.6 billion in grants for hundreds of clean energy projects “based solely on the political identity of the grant recipient’s state,” in this case, 16 states that voted for Democrat Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election
Morocco secures $114 million in funding for Africa’s first EV battery factory
The African Development Bank has approved a $114 million loan to help finance the construction of Africa’s first electric vehicle battery gigafactory in Morocco, marking a milestone in the continent’s clean energy industrialization drive
As we noted yesterday, some profit taking is prudent for those that've been long since the 70 handle. While risk remain skewed to the upside, traders may take a pause on positioning with the FOMC meeting next week and with Brent crude out above $100. First support lays at $88.00.
With WTI crude oil back up into the $90 range patient longs that have stuck with our bull call since the mid 70's would be prudent to take some profits here.
Crude oil rallies on US-Iran tensions, weighing on stocks as the US Dollar strengthens. Elliott Wave analysis points to more short-term volatility across key markets.
The Supreme Court’s overturning of Trump’s tariffs under IEEPA did not end the trade wars. The issue is back, and together with the Iran problem, it could get messier for markets.
The U.S. military says it completed the 11th night of strikes on Iran as attacks across the Middle East overshadowed diplomatic efforts to salvage an interim ceasefire deal that has collapsed
Two-sided volatility with the downside pressure being driven by non-sense was yet again the tale of the tape for yesterday's session. Escalating strikes from both sides led to the loss of US servicemen and more collateral damage for Iran's neighbors over the weekend. This led to some outright angry and violent truth social posts from President Trump. The Sunday night open featured a gap-higher into the upper end of our key technical region with clear momentum coming behind it. This was until the early morning hours, when rumors started circulating that Iranian leadership was making efforts to secure a 10 Day ceasefire.
Technical analysis of WTI Crude Oil hitting resistance at the 50-day moving average and what this market slowdown means for Western Canadian grain markets.
Headlines over the weekend skewed bullish until 2am last night, when reports and rumors started flowing about Iranian leadership arriving in Pakistan. It was unclear what this meeting was supposed to entail, but it was taken as a signal that Iran may be willing to re-engage with the US on ceasefire talks.
India has introduced its first hydrogen-powered train designed and built in the country in a move to expand clean energy use on its rail network
The war with Iran is escalating this morning as the IRGC instructed the Houthi's in Yemen to close the Bab el-Mandeb gateway to the Red Sea if the US strikes Iran's power network.
The war with Iran is escalating this morning as the IRGC instructed the Houthi's in Yemen to close the Bab el-Mandeb gateway to the Red Sea if the US strikes Iran's power network. The Bab el-Mandeb gateway is another crucial chokepoint to global trade, linking the Arabian Sea to the Red Sea and onto the Suez Canal. Crude prices have jumped this morning on the news.
