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As price approached the resistance yellow box, our clients were informed upfront about it and Elliott Wave structure suggested that the recovery was nearing completion. The rally lacked the characteristics of a new impulsive uptrend and instead continued to drop impulsively, started developing as a three-wave corrective move. Based on that view, we warned that a reversal lower could emerge from the highlighted resistance region.
CADJPY has seen a very nice push higher recently after we identified a wave four retracement, but now price is coming down from around 117.50 and is even trying to break the lower trendline support near 115.50. This suggests that even if this turns out to be just a temporary pullback, there is still room for more weakness, possibly into wave E of a larger triangle, or alternatively this could be a wave four correction.
NZDJPY has broken out of its previously completed wave four triangle, confirming the end of the consolidation phase discussed in the May 12 update. The pair is now transitioning into a potential wave five advance, signaling renewed bullish momentum toward higher upside targets.
The fact that gold declined so much on "nothing" is truly profound.
The 6E futures contract has been range-bound between 1.150 and 1.186 since June 2025, with 1.168 acting as the defining pivot since March. After buyers successfully defended and held above that level through April, sellers have more recently reasserted themselves in May and pressed prices back below the range mid. The macro backdrop is pulling in both directions simultaneously, with USD headwinds from the Moody's downgrade and ballooning fiscal deficits competing against a hawkish ECB pivot and an unresolved US-Iran conflict that continues to suppress Eurozone growth and fan inflation. The coming weeks will be defined by whether 1.168 flips back to resistance or gets reclaimed by buyers, with directional resolution likely to follow whichever side commands that level with conviction.
Aussie is seeing a pretty strong selloff here, so it’s possible that we already saw the top of wave five. Notice that price broke below the trend line support of that bullish channel, which makes us think that wave five may already be completed and that we could see much deeper weakness later on. In fact, we see an impulsive drop from the highs, so we may now be stepping into a higher degree A B C decline, meaning that after B wave rise, pair could see much more weakness. Plus, we have seen a weekly close around 0.7136 level, which seems like important confirmation that the trend is reversing, which after all has been expected because of the higher degree completed 5-wave structure visible on the daily chart.
Markets are starting to realize that delayed action can keep long-term yields elevated, tightening financial conditions even without additional hikes. Higher yields increase borrowing costs across the economy, from mortgages and corporate debt to consumer credit, which can eventually slow growth and pressure risk assets.What also makes this cycle unusual is that equities have remained relatively resilient despite the move higher in yields. Normally, rising yields create stronger pressure on stocks, especially tech and growth sectors. But as long as markets believe inflation can eventually cool without a recession, risk appetite may stay supported for now.
RBA minutes from the latest meeting showed that after three rate hikes this year, members could now be ready for some pause after three hikes this year. They may want to wait for more data and also see how the situation in the Middle East develops, so they likely do not want to rush too much with additional hikes for now and may need more time. This is one of the reasons why Aussie is turning lower again, and it’s very possible that the pair is now trading in wave A of a higher degree A B C pullback that we already discussed in yesterday’s webinar. Resistance to watch on rebounds remains around the 0.7180 area -0.72.
GBPAUD remains under pressure within a larger bearish cycle, but technical and fundamental conditions suggest a corrective wave 4 rebound may unfold in the coming weeks.
Dive into today's early market action with the Blue Line Futures Metals Minute! (Episode 661)
Kiwi is reversing quite aggressively to the downside, and notice that price on the 4 hour time frame is currently breaking the trend line support connected from the April lows, so it appears that the three wave recovery is already finished, completed D wave, exactly at our first resistance near the 0.5960 level. The reversal lower that we are tracking now looks like a wave E decline, but we know that wave E should unfold in a minimum of three waves, so it’s very possible that this weakness continues much lower towards the 61.8 percent or even the 78.6 percent retracement levels, located around 0.5750 - 0.58. Those are the next major supports to watch for a potential rebound, but only after we complete a three wave decline from the recent swing highs.
EURCHF may dip toward 0.9100 support within wave C of (Y) before the broader bullish trend resumes.
NZDJPY remains below the 95 resistance zone and could still be forming a wave four correction before another push higher toward 96–97.
Japanese yen futures (JPY/USD) have been under sustained pressure throughout 2026, trapped in a prolonged sideways range since November before sellers compressed prices lower heading into the spring. A confirmed Ministry of Finance intervention on April 30 triggered the largest single-day bid in months, snapping back a month's worth of range in one candle. The market has since settled into a chop around the 2026 VWAP confluent with the 0.006395 daily level 2, where buyers and sellers are actively battling for control. The BOJ's hawkish hold in late April, rising June hike expectations, and ongoing Middle East geopolitical risk continue to define the macro landscape as the market decides its next directional leg.
A step-by-step look at how USDMXN completed an ABC corrective recovery, reacted at projected resistance, broke below confirmation support, and transitioned into a new bearish impulsive decline.
The Canadian dollar staged a notable recovery in April 2026 after breaking down from support in late March, with buyers bidding prices back through the 0.730 consolidation range midpoint and the 2026 yearly VWAP. Sentiment has been shaped by a softening US dollar, elevated oil prices tied to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, and the Bank of Canada's confirmed rate hold at 2.25% on April 29. Going forward, the market remains sensitive to developments in US trade policy, the trajectory of crude oil, and whether buyers can sustain their hold above the 0.730 area to set up a run at the 0.740 daily resistance level.
AUDUSD is recovering very nicely, as we identified that the three-wave retracement from the March highs likely completed at 0.6833, followed by a strong move out of the corrective channel, which confirmed that the trend is turning back to bullish. Price traveled above 0.7190 highs, showing strong upside momentum from the March low. At the same time, price tested impulse channel resistance, so the current slowdown is not a surprise. More importantly, pullback has unfolded now in a three legs as shown on 4h TF, which is another bullish structure that pointing even higher into higher degree wave V for next week.
NZDUSD is pushing nicely to the upside since the start of the month, after we identified a completed ending diagonal around 0.5681. From there, we’ve seen a strong and impulsive reversal, which suggests the market has turned bullish, at least temporarily.
USDJPY pulled back to support near 159 after rebounding from April lows and is now stabilizing. The outlook still favors another move higher, with potential toward 161, supported by soft BoJ policy and higher US yields. However, caution is needed near those levels, as possible BoJ intervention could limit further yen weakness.
GBPJPY confirms a bullish breakout above 208, with wave structure pointing toward further upside before a higher-degree correction.
With strong public-private partnerships and mutual support between organizations, these cities have a network effect that is greater than the sum of their individual parts, making this a strategic KPI to pay attention to when assessing investment opportunities.
Investors don’t price in natural disasters, but there are even bigger risks for markets coming from Japan.
