Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Seeing limited upside to its shares following a rally that following its April 8 announcement of a definitive agreement to be acquired by U.S. private equity giant Francisco Partners Management LP for up to $850-million, RBC Dominion Securities analyst Paul Treiber downgraded Blackline Safety Corp. (BLN-T) to “sector perform” from “outperform” previously.
“While the takeout premium provides an attractive short-term return on the shares, investors lose an attractive growth story,” he said.
In a client note released before the bell titled An early end of the BLN story, Mr. Treiber thinks the deal, which is comprised of $9.00 per share in cash on closing plus a contingent value right of up to 50 cent per share, “affirms Blackline’s likely average recurring revenue growth re-acceleration.”
“The CVR provides up to a $0.50/share cash payment if Blackline’s ARR reaches $148.9-million by the end of FY27,” he explained. “Given the inclusion of the CVR as part of the consideration, we believe Blackline’s board views the ARR target as achievable. Based on disclosures in the information circular, the ARR targets are based on management’s internal forecasts. The target ARR in the CVR is well above our estimate for $128-million ARR by the end of FY27 and implies growth of 33-per-cent CAGR [compound annual growth rate] over the next two years, accelerating from 28-per-cent year-over-year year-over-year ARR growth as of Q1/FY26.”
“Rollover shareholders imply the long-term thesis remains intact. Shareholder DAK Capital and Chairman and CEO Cody Slater are rolling over their holdings (26.8 million shares or 31 per cent of total) into equity of the purchaser. These large shareholders rolling over their equity implies that they see a compelling long-term growth opportunity for the company.”
Mr. Treiber now thinks other takeout deals “may be catalysts for the Canadian small cap tech ecosystem” moving forward.
“With the valuations of some Canadian small cap tech stocks near multiyear lows, we believe more companies may consider going private or selling to acquirers to maximize near-term shareholder value,” he said.
The analyst bumped his target for Blackline shares to $9.25 from $9. The average on the Street is $9.53, according to LSEG data.
While Lightspeed Commerce Inc.’s (LSPD-N, LSPD-T) fourth-quarter 2026 results were better than expected, RBC Dominion Securities analyst Daniel Perlin thinks its guidance for the first-quarter of fiscal 2027 was “optically disappointing to the Street, as models were likely not calibrated for the Upserve divestiture’s guidance impact, and thus is weighing on the shares.”
“Nevertheless, the positive mix shift to faster growing growth markets, which now account for 75 per cent of total revenues, likely reaching 80 per cent by year-end fiscal 2027, should help drive revenue acceleration throughout the year, as FY27 guidance is F2H weighted,” he added.
Shares of the Montreal-based sales technology provider fell 6.6 per cent on Thursday after it released guidance for its current year that includes revenue in the range of US$1.225-billion to US$1.265-billion and adjusted EBITDA of US$75-million to US$95-million. Both fell under the consensus forecast of the Street of US$1.332-billion and US$95.6-million, respectively.
“What we liked: 1) LSPD’s GTM [go-to-market] momentum is accelerating, with location growth within its growth engine markets accelerating to 11 per cent from 9 per cent last quarter, now inside of its 3-yearCAGR target, with management investing more into its outbound sales team; 2) Software gross margins were exceptionally higher at 87 per cent due to a cloud providers rebate, but even when normalized, were 82 per cent, with management calling out continued cost efficiencies, consolidating its cloud vendors for better terms, and using AI for support (now resolves 80 per cent of support functions); and 3) SSS came in positive in both Retail and Hospitality markets, and across core geographies, with help from FX,” he said in a note.
“Where there is push back: 1) 1Q27 and FY27 guidance appear light relative to prior Street expectations, likely due to models not being calibrated for the Upserve divestiture; and 2) similarly due to the divestiture, the company brought down its FY28 targets, which lowered the gross profit target by 3.5 per cent at the midpoint (but lifted margin by 1 percentage point) and adj. FCF by 5 per cent.”
After trimming his 2027 estimates and introducing his 2028 expectations, Mr. Perlin reduced his target for Lightspeed shares to US$10 from US$13, keeping an “outperform” rating. The average target is US$13.04.
“Our Outperform rating reflects: 1) the company streamlining its business to focus on two large verticals, retail & hospitality, with two consolidated tech platforms; 2) increased focus on unified payments and new solutions designed to drive higher aggregate ARPU [average revenue per use]; 3) software ARPU continues to increase, driven by an increasing focus on larger more sophisticated clients and its flagship products coming with a higher percentage of software attachment; and 4) continued focus on profitability after achieving positive adj EBITDA in FY24 and accelerating meaningfully in future periods,” he said.
Elsewhere, other analysts making target adjustments include:
* Stifel’s Suthan Sukumar to US$10 from US$12 with a “hold” rating.
“Net-new business momentum in growth engine markets (North American retail, European hospitality) is sustaining, necessitating a pull-forward of growth investments, which should support a consistent outlook for double-digit location growth in these core markets and drive more stability in overall location count. As such, organic growth visibility appears to be improving, and trajectory, as per the Q1 vs full-year growth guide, implies an acceleration over the year, macro permitting. While overall top-line results will remain noisy given the moving pieces with non-core markets and the Upserve divestment, underlying KPIs appear to be trending positively. We continue to look for a re-acceleration in subscription revenue growth to a sustainable double-digit level to grow more constructive around LSPD’s ability to leverage recent strategic changes/growth investments to fuel greater market share gains and monetization,” said Mr. Sukumar.
* BTIG’s Andrew Harte to US$12 from US$15 with a “buy” rating.
Seeing it return to a point at which it is gaining domestic market share while a “international runway [is] visible,” TD Cowen analyst Derek Lessard upgraded Decibel Cannabis Co. (DB-X) to “buy” from “hold” previously.
“Strong domestic execution, accelerating international growth, and a clearer path to sustained margin expansion underpin our upgrade,” he said. “We view DB’s refreshed product portfolio and international scaling (i.e. processing capabilities and growing extract demand) as key drivers of potential incremental growth and mix-driven margin upside.”
In a note released before the bell, Mr. Lessard said the Calgary-based company’s domestic share has “stabilized” with its scalable processing platform setting it up for gains elsewhere.
“DB reported 30 basis points of market share gains during the quarter. We believe the refresh of the company’s core portfolio (i.e. converted General Admission offerings to Liquid Diamond) is resonating with consumers given the availability of higher-potency SKUs, improved product innovation, and strong promotional activity,” he said. “We believe the newly introduced Standard Issue brand is a key tool that should, given its value proposition and focus on the high-user segment, drive continued share gains despite the softer consumer environment.”
“While competition has increased due to the attractive margin profile abroad, we believe AgMedica’s EU-GMP certification provides a competitive advantage. Specifically, DB can process third-party flower into EU-compliant product for a tolling fee, effectively monetizing its infrastructure beyond its own cultivation capacity. Roughly half of DB’s Q1 international sales were generated by tolling/processing and other services.”
The analyst bumped his target to 25 cents, matching the average on the Street, from 15 cents.
“DB holds a top-three share in the vape/pre-roll categories and benefits from an attractive margin profile (i.e. exposure to higher-margin formats). After a period of sales pressure through 2024/early 2025, we now see clear evidence of domestic share stabilization owing to the General Admission portfolio refresh (i.e. Liquid Diamond) and early traction with Standard Issue. Simultaneously, we believe there is a compelling international growth runway given DB’s scalable AgMedica facility (which includes processing capabilities) and increasing exposure to higher-margin extracts. We also see incremental margin upside driven by greater international mix, operating leverage, and facility consolidation (i.e. Creston sale). While our fwd. target valuation multiple (1.2x) represents a premium to the broader group average (0.9 times), it remains discounted to its TD Cowen-covered LP peers. This reflects DB’s venture-only listing, trading illiquidity, and lower potential for institutional ownership,” he explained.
National Bank Financial analyst Rabi Nizami sees the close of Amex Exploration Inc.’s (AMX-X) previously announced $59-million private placement equity financing as a “derisking milestone” with the Montreal-based junior miner now having “the balance sheet strength to advance engineering and construction of an underground ramp and bulk sample, further advance its Phase 1 and Phase 2 mine development plans, while also conducting more aggressive drill campaigns across the district-scale portfolio of mineral claims in the northern Abitibi.”
With a up to $22-million investment by Eldorado Gold (ELD-T), which currently owns a 27-per-cent stake in Amex, expected to close following a June 16 shareholder vote at the company’s annual general meeting, Mr. Nizami thinks further exploration should continue to be a focus “given the district-scale land package assembled over the past year.”
“We expect AMX to apply part of the new capital to early works and long-lead items that support both the bulk sample and Phase 1 construction which could potentially include ramp development, surface preparation, site infrastructure, water management and power-related work,” he added. “With a pro forma $109-million cash balance, AMX should be well positioned to execute the bulk sample and continue the Phase 1 permitting/de-risking pathway while allocating more funds for exploration across Perron and Perron West.”
Coming off research restriction, Mr. Nizami reiterated an “outperform” rating and $6.50 for Amex shares. The average on the Street is
“We continue to view Amex as an M&A opportunity for regional mill operators in Quebec seeking high-grade feed, particularly given the project’s location in the Abitibi, its toll-milling development path, permitted 40,000-t bulk sample, and exploration potential,” he said.
When Saputo Inc. (SAP-T) reports its fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results after the bell on June 4, TD Cowen analyst Michael Van Aelst expects to see “solid” operational gains, however he lowered his earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) projection to reflect higher expected share-based compensation expenses, reflecting a 75-per-cent rise in price over the last 12 months.
“We believe investors will look through this and give SAP credit for the strong execution and pricing discipline driving the expected underlying 11-per-cent year-over-year EBITDA growth (ex-SBC and ARG), despite ongoing challenges in USA market factors and higher ad/promo spend,” he said.
Mr. Van Aelst is now forecasting continued operations adjusted EBITDA of $386-million, down from $413-million but up from $368-million during the same period a year ago. While his estimate falls below the $412-million average on the Street, he thinks approximately half of his peers’ projections have not been adjusted for the divestiture of its Argentina operations and SBC considerations.
“Investors should look through higher SBC,” he said. “With SAP shares up 75 per centin F26, we believe some catch up will be necessary ... We have assumed a $23-million incremental non-cash SBC true-up in Q4, which accounts for most of the decrease in our Q4E EBITDA (with the remainder tied to updated commodity prices and forex rates). We assume SBC normalizes in F27 as it seems unlikely that the share price rises at the same pace.
“Q4/F26 expected to reflect strong operational performance. Excluding incremental SBC expense and Argentina, our Q4/F26E EBITDA represents 11-per-cent year-over-year growth, with all divisions contributing despite higher ad/promo spend (more concentrated in Q4 TY). We expect another quarter of strong execution, mix improvement and pricing discipline, with high fill rates and efficiencies maintaining the solid Q3 run rate.”
Mr. Van Aelst emphasized a deterioration in market conditions in the United States during the quarter, which he says is reflect through butter prices, “a proxy for SAP’s input costs for Dairy Foods.”
However, he kept a “buy” rating and $52 target for Saputo shares. The average is
“Valuation sits at 10.8 times consensus NTM [next 12-month] EBITDA estimate, below the 10-year average of 11.1 times, despite a balance sheet that has meaningfully strengthened (leverage less than 1.8 times) and much better underlying EBITDA growth rates (we forecast 12 per cent/8 per cent in F27/F28), with FCF yields reaching 6.6 per cent/7.3 per cent in F27/F28,” he said. “Management is back to executing well — pricing discipline and commercial initiatives are increasing volumes and margins in all divisions — and large capital projects (optimization and capacity expansion initiatives) of past years are delivering returns. Dairy commodity pricing remains volatile, but strong demand (domestic and export) and a moderation in milk supply growth (vs. what we have seen recently) should lead to more stable market factors over time."
In other analyst actions:
* Barclays’ Richard Garchitorena initiated coverage of Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM-T) with an “overweight: rating and $292 target, seeing it as a low-cost gold miner with over 85 per cent of its production coming from the low-risk jurisdictions of Canada and Finland as well possessing a strong track record of share returns through acquisitions. The average target on the Street is $373.04.
* While Barclays remains constructive on the uranium industry, pointing to several tailwinds, it thinks further gains for investors may be limited in the near-term, leading Mr. Garchitorena to initiate coverage of Cameco Corp. (CCO-T) with an “equalweight” rating and $149 target. The average is $177.10.
* Mr. Garchitorena also initiated coverage of these stocks: Barrick Mining Corp. (ABX-T) with an “equal-weight” rating and $56 target; Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM-T) with an “overweight” rating and $41 target and Lundin Mining Corp. (LUN-T) with an “equal-weight” rating and $42 target. The averages are $79.63, $40.03 and $40.06, respectively.
* CIBC’s Todd Coupland raised his BlackBerry Ltd. (BB-N, BB-T) target to US$8.50 from US$6, maintaining an “outperformer” rating. The average is US$4.98.
“BlackBerry’s message at CIBC’s Technology & Innovation Conference on May 21 was notably stronger: management signaled better operating visibility and a clearer path to profitable growth across both QNX and Secure Communications,” said Mr. Coupland. “For PMs, the key debate is increasingly shifting from turnaround credibility to the pace and durability of backlog growth and conversion, with QNX execution the most important driver of upside.
“In our view, that setup supports sustained momentum into F2027 and F2028, with a credible path to the high end of guidance—and potential upside versus what still looks like a conservative framework. We believe that if BlackBerry continues to execute, the stock will increasingly be valued on improving growth quality and margin progression rather than legacy skepticism.”
* Emphasizing “long-term visibility is more important than short-term noise” following Thursday’s post-market earnings release, Scotia’s Konark Gupta cut his CAE Inc. (CAE-T) target to $50 from $56 with a “sector outperform” rating. The average is $46.28.
“We maintain our SO rating while trimming our target to $50 (was $56) as we adjust our model to reflect F2027 guidance, F2030 targets, and updated definitions for certain financial metrics, said Mr. Gupta. ”We have rolled forward the valuation to F2030E, discounting back two years at 10 per cent to derive our new target. Simply put, FQ4 results and F2027 guidance highlight incremental near-term weakness in Civil due to the Middle Eastern conflicts and transformation effects, while the longer-term outlook is still positive and Defense continues to beat expectations. Although the stock may trade sideways initially due to the noise in results and outlook, we believe long-term fundamental investors will be encouraged by the standardized FCF math and quantitative disclosures. Pending more details on the earnings call ... we think CAE’s targets imply EPS more than $2.00 in F2030 along with more than 100-per-cent FCF conversion, equating to 10-11-per-cent CAGRs. Interestingly, CAE’s leverage ratio target of 2.5 times suggests that there could be $3.3-billion in potential excess liquidity by F2030, which, if unleashed fully and prudently, could generate incremental value via shareholder returns or additional investments. We remain bullish on CAE as the transformation takes shape."
* Raymond James’ Steven Li lowered his target for Computer Modelling Group Ltd. (CMG-T) by $1 to $6 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $6.05.
“Improved 4Q with in-line revenues and better than expected A-EBITDA margins. Based on updated management commentary, we have tweaked our model. Our revenue forecasts are little changed, but we have tweaked our model adjusted EBITDA higher. We don’t factor in potential acquisitions,” said Mr. Li.
* Piper Sandler’s Anna Andreeva cut her target target on Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU-Q) to US$130 from US$190 with a “neutral” rating. The average is $177.13.