Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Canadian Tire Corp. Ltd.’s (CTC.A-T) in-line second-quarter results for its retail business “show the strength” of the banners,” according to Stifel analyst Martin Landry.
“When excluding Petroleum, retail gross margin expanded 33 basis points year-over-year combined with SG&A leverage, a good performance for the retail segment,” he said. “Highlights include (1) strong comparable sales growth at SportChek, up 8 per cent year-over-year, (2) continued momentum at Mark’s with comparable sales up 4.2 per cent year-over-year, and (3) eCommerce sales up 14 per cent year-over-year at CTR [Canadian Tire], the highest growth rate in a while.
“The tone on the earnings call was positive with management pointing to comparable sales improving in Q3/26 to date vs Q2/26 levels. Investments made in concept and store refreshes appear to be gaining traction with consumers. While the valuation of CTC’s shares has increased one turn in the last two months, we see further upside. As the company delivers consistent high-single-digits/low-double-digits EPS growth combined with low-to-mid-single-digits comparable sales growth, we believe investors will reward CTC with a higher valuation multiple.”
Before the bell on Thursday, Canadian Tire reported quarter earnings per share of $3.94, up 10 per cent year-over-year and topping Mr. Landry’s $3.84 estimate while in line with consensus of $3.95. He attributed the beat to his forecast to lower SG&A expenses and a lower income tax expense.
The retailer reported comparable sales growth for the period of 0.7 per cent, slightly below the analyst’s expectation of 1.5 per cent but also in line with the Street at 0.8 per cent. Comparable sales at SportChek grew 8 per cent, driven by the frenzy around the soccer World , while Mark’s and the flagship Canadian Tire stores rose 4.2 per cent and down 0.8 per cent, respectively.
“Improving trends heading into Q3/26,” Mr. Landry noted. “Management noted that quarter-to-date, sell-through trends have improved in part due to more favorable weather. Dealer inventory at the end of the quarter sits comfortably, up 1 per cent year-over-year, compared to up 5 per cent year-over-year at the beginning of Q1/26. Management is executing a new strategy for back-to-school with an enterprise-wide coordinated approach. The back-to-shool shopping occasion is valued at $3.4 billion and CTC has a small share today. With AI tools, the company has introduced new categories of products, new approaches to merchandising and new price points, which could lead to market share gains.
“Online sales continue to outpace brick and mortar sales. eCommerce sales were up 12 per cent year-over-year across all the banners outpacing brick and mortar. At CTR, eCommerce sales increased an impressive 14 per cent year-over-year, the fastest growth rate in a while. Newly introduced free shipping to loyalty customers on orders above $99 was a contributor. In addition, the company has expanded its endless aisle with now 12,000 items available exclusively online. Management has also improved at leveraging the website traffic at CTR, directing it to other banners such as Mark’s and SportChek. eCommerce average order value is almost double that of brick and mortar.”
Mr. Landry raised his 2026 EPS forecasts by 3 cents, which he notes “is less than the $0.10 beat vs our estimate as we reduced our H2/26 estimates to reflect investments in the company’s SG&A, such as IT systems and eCommerce capabilities.”
Keeping a “buy” rating for the company’s shares, his target increased to $220 from $115. The average on the Street is $211.75.
Elsewhere, other analysts making target revisions include:
* Scotia’s John Zamparo to $200 from $180 with a “sector perform” rating.
“CTC is sufficiently executing on its key priorities—True North cost reductions; 35-per-cent GM% [gross margins] target, capturing sales opportunities like the World Cup—that the stock has been rewarded by investors. We think further upside is limited at the moment. We currently project an EPS CAGR of 6 per cent through 2028; potential levers to move this higher include more favourable weather, early returns from strategic digital and merchandising initiatives, further SG&A cuts, or greater buyback usage. We’re somewhat cautious on big-ticket consumer discretionary spending for 2H, but consumer health has held in reasonably well year-to-date,” said Mr. Zamparo.
* RBC’s Irene Nattel to $230 from $218 with an “outperform” rating.
“Resilient consumer backdrop, disciplined execution, and strategic momentum from True North reinforce our thesis. Enterprise SSS 0.7 per cent better than feared against a tough 5.6-per-cent comp, and normalized EPS $3.94 (up 10 per cent year-over-year) was a tire thread above consensus and our forecast. We are moderating our Q3/26E outlook to reflect expectation of lower CTR shipment growth (dealer winter carryover delaying fall/winter replenishment), and GM% pressure from higher transportation fuel surcharges and targeted promotional investments. 2027E essentially unchanged; introducing 2028E EPS up 12 per cent, with net income up 8 per cent boosted by 4-per-cent buyback,” said Ms. Nattel.
* National Bank’s Vishal Shreedhar to $209 from $210 with a “sector perform” rating.
“Given uneven operating performance and ongoing disruption related to the implementation of the True North strategy, we see more attractive opportunities elsewhere in our coverage universe,” said Mr. Shreedhar.
A recent pullback in shares of Northland Power Inc. (NPI-T) “contrasts against [an] improving risk profile,” according to TD Cowen analyst Sean Steuart, who raised his rating for its shares to “buy” from “hold” on Friday.
“Following recent share price underperformance, we believe that NPI’s valuation has contracted to an attractive level,” he added. “The company continues to de-risk its offshore wind construction projects (89 per cent of turbines installed). We believe its valuation should normalize as offshore wind construction is complete and the growth pipeline is refreshed.”
On Wednesday, Northland reported second-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $258.9-million, falling short of Mr. Steuart’s estimate of $265.3-million and the consensus forecast of $270-million. However, the Toronto-based company’s management reaffirmed 2026 guidance and provided details on further offshore wind construction progress.
“NPI’s share price decline of 14 per cent since the most recent peak in April has outpaced the average 7-per-cent decline for a composite of global IPPs (renewable and thermal),” the analyst said. “We believe recent pressure on NPI’s valuation, which now sits at a material discount to the global IPP sector, overstates concerns around the company’s growth potential. The 23-per-cent total return to our $25/share target price warrants a rating upgrade to Buy, in our view”
“NPI’s valuation is approaching trough levels. Based on 12-month forward TEV/EBITDA (using consensus), NPI’s recent valuation of 8.9 times is 1.2 points below its trading average over the last five years and is a material discount to the global renewable IPP sector average of 10.8 times. We believe the company’s valuation should normalize as offshore wind construction finishes and the growth pipeline is refreshed.”
Mr. Steuart reaffirmed his $25 target for Northland shares, which falls 25 cents under the average on the Street.
“NPI shares have been a recent underperformer relative to both Canadian IPPs and North American regulated utilities,” he added. “This follows a consistent run off the bottom following its surprise November 2025 dividend cut and updated mid-term outlook. We believe that construction progress and more transparent messaging have helped rebuild investor confidence. In our view, the company has continued to make substantial progress in de-risking its offshore wind construction projects, with 89 per cent of total turbines at Hai Long and Baltic installed and 50-per-cent generating power. Northland is trading near trough valuation levels; we believe this should normalize as offshore wind construction is completed and the company’s growth pipeline is refreshed. We anticipate further updates this fall regarding incremental development opportunities across NPI’s key growth markets (Europe, Canada)”
Elsewhere, ATB Cormark’s Nate Heywood moved his target to $28 from $27 with an “outperform” rating.
“NPI shares traded down 3.7 per cent following Q2/26 results, where adjusted EBITDA of $259-million (up 6 per cent year-over-year) met ATB estimates (ATBe: $259-million) but missed consensus of $270-million by 4 per cent,” said Mr. Heywood. “NPI reaffirmed its 2026 EBITDA guidance range of $1.45–$1.65-billion (ATBe: $1.50-billion | consensus: $1.52-billion). The selloff came despite resolved financing concerns around its Hai Long offshore wind project, in addition to commencement of construction activities on 300MW of battery projects in Poland. On the call, management spoke optimistically about tight European power market fundamentals, where 2/3rd of Nordsee One remains uncontracted for merchant upside. NPI continues to advance its future growth projects and maintains a total unsanctioned project backlog of 7.7GW.”
Ventum Financial analyst Rob Goff thinks the strength of Calian Group Ltd.’s (CGY-T) second-quarter “reinforces the case for sustained double-digit growth and a higher valuation.”
“We have consistently maintained that forecasts and prospective valuations offered upside. With Canadian military budgets looking to roughly triple and NATO budgets similarly rising as a -percentage of GDP, double-digit organic growth is a realistic, sustainable target,” he explained “With the aggressive growth and greater confidence in its sustainability, we argue that prospective valuations should exceed historic levels.
“Going into the quarter, consensus forecast F2027 revenue growth of 9.3 per cent, leaving room for upward revisions. Similarly, Calian’s C2027 EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.3 times reflected a modest premium to its five-year average of 8.7 times despite the materially improved defence-spending environment. For context, domestic peer CAE (CAE-TSX, Not Covered) traded at 11.7 times.”
Shares of the Ottawa-based defence company soared 7.3 per cent on Thursday after the release of its quarterly results before the bell, which included revenue of jumping 19 per cent sequentially and 19.9 per cent year-over-year to $230.4-million, exceeding the consensus estimate of $212.1-million by 7 per cent. Adjusted EBITDA grew 47.0 per cent and 34.8 per cent to $25.6-million, exceeding the Street’s forecast of $20-million by 27.9 per cent.
“We are raising our F2026 revenue/EBITDA forecast by $11.3-million/$2.7-million to $885.9-million/95.7-million (pre-quarter consensus - $877.9-million/$93.9-million),” said Mr. Goff.
“Higher F2027 Forecasts: Strength in the quarter supported moving our F2027 revenue/adj. EBITDA forecasts up $14.1-million/$3.2-million to $958.9-million/$108.9-million against the pre-quarter consensus at $959.5-million/$110.1-million. We await the final closing of the Galaxy acquisition before incorporating its estimated annualized revenue/EBITDA contribution of $67-million/$10-million. Reviewing prior estimates within the consensus, we believe most estimates hold back for the Galaxy closing. Estimates proforma Galaxy have shifted the consensus modestly.”
With his changes, Mr. Goff raised his target for Calian shares to $106 from $100, keeping a “buy” rating. The average is $98.56.
“The strength of Calian’s results reinforces our bullish thesis. Similar quarterly outperformance from Exchange Income (EIF-TSX, Under Review) and Magellan Aerospace (MAL-TSX, Not Covered) reflected strong aerospace and defence demand,” he added.
Elsewhere, others making target adjustments include:
* RBC’s Paul Treiber to $105 from $90 with an “outperform” rating.
“Q3 results were strong, with revenue, adj. EBITDA, and adj. EPS all above RBC/consensus. Organic growth strengthened to a 5-year high. While Q3 partially benefited from a pull-forward in revenue in non-core ITCS, core growth in the quarter shows the company is benefiting from rising defence demand. Calian reiterated its long-term growth outlook, as it sees larger, more strategic contract opportunities and continued capital deployment on acquisitions,” said Mr. Treiber.
* Desjardins Securities’ Benoit Poirier to $109 from $104 with a “buy” rating.
“3Q FY26 was impressive, with record revenue, 16-per-cent organic growth and 35-per-cent adjusted EBITDA growth supporting a stronger FY26 outlook. Although organic growth benefited from lumpy U.S. commercial demand and the pull-forward of certain 4Q revenue from core technology solutions and GNSS antennas, the mid-single-digit organic growth implied for 4Q remains encouraging. CGY reiterated its intention to accelerate M&A. Low leverage of 0.9 times leaves ample room for value creation (we derive C$16/share),” said Mr. Poirier.
Following a first half of 2026 that was “was impacted by timing delays, with a number of projects wrapping up and new awards in the backlog slow to get out of the gate,” Stantec Inc.’s (STN-T) management has “laid out a reasonable case for organic reacceleration in the 2H,” according to Scotia Capital analyst Jonathan Goldman.
“1H likely represents trough, as the company has seen good positive momentum in 3Q while organic growth should get a boost once the Page acquisition anniversaries in August,” he explained. “Margin performance continues to exceed expectations, with 2Q representing the eighth consecutive beat to consensus. The upwardly revised guide calls for 50 basis points year-over-year at the midpoint, compared to 80 basis points achieved in 1H, and management admitted there is some conservatism baked-in.”
After the bell on Wednesday, the Edmonton-based engineering, architecture and environmental consulting firm reported second-quarter sales of $1.781-billion, falling short of the Street’s expectation of $1.793-billion. However, higher margins (18.7 per cent versus 18.1 per cent) led to adjusted earnings per share of $1.61, topping the consensus projection by 3 cents.
Mr. Goldman said a “strong” performance by its Global operations, which saw organic growth gaining 12.8 per cent year-over-year during the quarter, has kept Stantec on track to reach its full-year targets.
“The company maintained 2026 revenue guidance, but lowered organic growth in Canada and the U.S. (to mid-single-digits from mid-to-high-single-digits previously) and raised Global,” he noted. “The company expects to see an acceleration in activity in 2H: assuming mid-single-digits means 5 per cent, that implies high single-digits in Canada and U.S. in 2H. Margin guidance was increased 20 basis point at the midpoint implying 1 per cent to EBITDA, or $11 million, roughly the same quantum as the 2Q beat. The new margin guide implies 50 basis points year-over-year at the midpoint vs. 80 basis point achieved in 1H.”
Maintaining his “sector outperform” rating for Stantec shares, Mr. Goldman reduced his target to $129 from $133. The average is currently $140.55.
“STN shares trade at 10.1 times EV/EBITDA on our 2027 estimates vs. WSP at 9.9 times and ATRL at 11.4 times,’ he said. ”Net debt to EBITDA excluding leases was 1.3 times exiting 2Q, within the target range of 1 times to 2 times. The company repurchased 1.7 million shares YTD (1.5 per cent of shares outstanding) for $175 million which implies an average price of $103/share. It intends to seek TSX approval to upsize NCIB capacity to 5 per cent from the current 2-per-cent limit. On M&A, management noted the acquisition environment is ‘incredibly active right now’ and that ‘[our] prediction is the next 12 months would have more M&A relative to the last 12 months’."
Elsewhere, other changes include:
* RBC’s Sabahat Khan to $146 from $148 with an “outperform” rating.
“Stantec reported Q2 results that were mixed vs. expectations, with revenue coming in light and margins above. Full-year guidance reflected a moderation of organic growth expectations for U.S./Canada, while the Global segment guidance was unchanged (expected to lead with high-single-digits year-over-year growth). On capital allocation, company has been active on share repurchases, while M&A also remains a focus (leverage of 1.3 times provides ample flexibility),” said Mr. Khan.
* Desjardins Securities’ Benoit Poirier to $169 with a “buy” rating.
“Eyes were focused on the slight organic growth miss that overshadowed the strong margin and modest EPS beat. Beyond the results, management highlighted strong execution and cross-selling at Page, the growing use of AI in proposals and back-office functions, and Global momentum across the UK, Germany and Latin America. Capital deployment remains balanced, with M&A the priority and the NCIB limit set to increase from 2 per cent to 5 per cent,” said Mr. Poirier.
* ATB Cormark’s Chris Murray to $133 from $130 with an “outperform” rating.
“While revenue came in slightly below ATBe on softer organic growth, primarily in the US, STN reported a solid quarter, with margins expanding ~90bp y/y. Guidance was revised to reflect softer organic growth in H1/26 and an improving margin profile, with management reaffirming expectations for stronger organic growth in the US and Canada in H2/26. STN expects to be more active in M&A in H2/26 and on its NCIB, given prevailing valuations and lower-than-normal leverage levels, which provide significant flexibility for capital allocation. We continue to see significant value in the name,” said Mr. Murray.
In a client note released Friday titled Rising with the tide, Desjardins Securities analyst Kyle Stanley upgraded units of PRO Real Estate Investment Trust (PRV.UN-T) to “buy” from a “hold” rating ahead of a “material acceleration” in funds from operations per unit growth in 2027.
“While valuation had kept us on the sidelines, we see tailwinds from fiscal spending, particularly in Halifax, the positive impact from recent acquisition activity, and the acceleration in organic growth through year-end and into 2027 as too compelling to look past, despite a valuation that roughly aligns with the peer group,” he added.
Following the release of its second-quarter results on Wednesday after the bell, Mr. Stanley now sees a “solid operating environment for the Montreal-based REIT, noting it has ”renewed 83 per cent of 2026 maturities at an average uplift of 37 per cent, including 80 per cent of industrial maturities at a 41-per-cent spread."
“As the only public way to play structural defense spending tailwinds in Halifax (20 per cent of the portfolio), which offers further upside in a market already benefiting from amongst the best underlying fundamentals in Canada, we’ve gotten more constructive on PRV,” he said. “The balance of its secondary and tertiary industrial market exposure has been resilient through the softer post-COVID era, and given our positive outlook for the industrial sector more broadly, combined with being at an earnings growth inflection, we see this as a compelling entry point. While PRV trades at 12.1 time 2027 estimated FFO vs the peers at 11.8 times, its PEG of 1.5 times implies the most attractive growth-adjusted valuation in the group (peer average of 1.7 times).”
Mr. Stanley raised his target for PRO units to $7.50 from $6.75. The average is $7.22.
Elsewhere, other changes include:
* RBC’s Jimmy Shan to $7.50 from $7.25, keeping an “outperform” rating.
“We remain constructive on PRV. Despite a couple of previously- announced vacancies, PRV delivered 3-per-cent SP NOI growth which should ramp up to mid-to-high single growth by Q4. Renewal spreads over the next two years remain strong at 25-30 per cent in 2027E and we remain bullish on its largest sub-market, Burnside industrial Park, given the impact of increased defence spending and limited supply. PRV trades at parity to NAV (vs. negative 15 per cent for its industrial peers) which we think is warranted given its higher growth outlook with FFOPU CAGR of 10 per cent,” said Mr. Shan.
* Raymond James’ Brad Sturges to $7.25 from $7.50 with a “market perform” rating.
“PROREIT’s near-term organic growth prospects are underpinned by its embedded industrial rent MTM growth opportunity. Over the medium-term, PROREIT’s market dominant positioning as Halifax’s largest small-bay industrial facility landlord could benefit from the Canadian Federal Government’s planned increase in defense-related investments in the Atlantic Canada region,” said Mr. Sturges.
* TD Cowen’s Sam Damiani to $7.50 from $7 with a “buy” rating.
“We remain constructive on PRV’s outlook, with FFO/unit growth expected to resume in Q3 and SPNOI growth set to accelerate back to MSD/HSD levels. Small/mid-bay portfolio fundamentals remain healthy, and we see growing tailwinds in Atlantic Canada from rising defense spending. PRV’s unit price has outperformed peers over the past 2 months, and we continue to see valuation as attractive,” said Mr. Damiani.
National Bank Financial analyst Maxim Sytchev thinks Bird Construction Inc. (BDT-T) is “strategically positioned to take advantage of generational level of spending.”
“In order to be in the right place at the right time, one needs to have prepared the platform years in advance,” he explained. “Bird is now reaping the benefits of strategic decisions undertaken by management three to five years ago; we agree with the company’s assessment that a generational level of spending across most of the company’s verticals is upon us but critically BDT now has a full suite of capabilities to actually benefit from that upturn. With an 8-per-cent EBITDA margin within our sight, we suspect there will be another ratchet in margins in the next planning cycle as there is more higher profitability mix entering the company’s backlog and eventually P&L.”
Mr. Sytchev thinks the Mississauga-based second-quarter results were an “impressive showing and further improvement in outlook” and now sees it “firing on all cylinders.”
On Wednesday after the bell, Bird reported a all-time revenue record of $1.043-billion, a gain of 22.6 per cent year-over-year and 9 per cent higher than the Street’s projection of $956-million. Adjusted earnings per share grew 40 per cent to 70 cents, topping the consensus forecast by 11 cents.
“End-market backdrop is easily the best since the late 2000s / early 2010s oil boom; perhaps in a generation,” said Mr. Sytchev. “Organic growth in the quarter came in at the high teens year-over-year for the quarter, with all three verticals contributing positively. Sentiment in the oil sands has inflected materially (and seemingly sustainably) while traditional infrastructure work continues to pick up steam and legacy industrial sectors are returning to full-utilization run rates. The data centre buildout is in the very early days with a very active quoting/discussion pipeline. At the same time, defense-related work is booming as spending on military and dual-use infrastructure. Revenue visibility continues to improve as a result, complemented by $1.4-billion of MSA/recurring revenue to be completed over the next three to five years, while the Marten Falls partnership provides a promising avenue for incremental resource and infra work in the topical Ring of Fire region.”
The analyst called Bird’s margin improvement path “material in magnitude and consistent in timing.”
“With management reiterating an 8.0-per-cent EBITDA margin for next year, the remaining 130 basis points of improvement (from 6.7 per cent TTM [trailing 12 months]) will provide a big uplift to earnings power as lower-margin legacy work is wrapped up and collaborative contract structures with a higher proportion of self-perform work improve profitability and materially lessen execution-related risks.”
Emphasizing both revenue and EBITDA are “pointing (much) higher,” Mr. Sytchev raised forecast for Bird through fiscal 2027, leading him to hike his target for its shares to $92 from $72, keeping an “outperform” rating. The average is $69.86.
“As BDT continues delivering record revenue and backlog growth, supported by strong activity in data centres, power, infrastructure and energy, and in light of the favourable growth guidance, we are lifting our revenue projections in 2027 (we also upped D&A and CapEx intensity to reflect higher utilization). Subsequently, our EBITDA margin forecasts rise towards the 8-per-cent target mark,” he said.
Elsewhere, other analyst revisions include:
* ATB Cormark’s Chris Murray to $87 from $57 with an “outperform” rating.
“BDT delivered a strong Q2/26 print, surpassing $1.0-billion in quarterly construction revenue for the first time in its history, driven by stronger organic growth. Full-year guidance was increased, signalling expectations for more than 20.0-per-cent H2/26 growth, with management confirming its view that it has the potential to generate specialty contractor-like margins (10-15 per cent) over the medium term, given the demand environment and the Company’s expanding capabilities. BDT’s results and outlook exceeded expectations, and we continue to see upside in the shares,” said Mr. Murray.
* Stifel’s Ian Gillies to $87 from $85 with a “buy” rating.
“Bird posted a strong quarter with 18.1-per-cent organic growth, a recovery that was a quarter earlier than expected, and the outlook remains upbeat. This has driven the stock up 153.9 per cent year-to-date versus the S&P/TSX at 15.3 per cent and valuation has now caught up to a group of North American construction peers on a P/E basis. We believe upward earning revisions will be the primary driver for the stock in the near-term. In the medium-term, BDT is clearly trying to position itself as a specialty contractor to further expand the company’s valuation nearer to the specialty construction peers’ average of 24.2 times P/E. Importantly, management believes there is a pathway to get to 10-15-per-cent EBITDA margins that specialty peers carry, which bodes well for its next strategic plan,” said Mr. Gillies.
A pair of analysts on the Street lowered their ratings for Alithya Group Inc. (ALYA-T) in response to Thursday’s release of its quarterly results
Desjardins Securities’ Jerome Dubreuil downgraded the Montreal-based professional services firm to “hold” from “buy” with a $1.15 target, down from $1.55. The average is $1.59.
“ALYA reported a disappointing 1Q FY27,” said Mr. Dubreuil. “Beyond delays in the conversion of key contracts and the related pressure on utilization, we are not aware of any specific non-recurring items that drove the miss,” he said. “With a challenging year-over-year comparison coming up in 2Q FY27 and weak underlying industry trends, we are downgrading ALYA to Hold (from Buy). A risk to our call is the ongoing strategic review, which could lead to a bid. However, current earnings volatility and lower industry valuations limit that risk, in our view.”
ATB Cormark’s Gavin Fairweather moved Alithya to “sector perform” from “outperform” with a $1.35 target, down from $1.60.
“Alithya reported Q1/F27 results that missed expectations on revenue and margins, driven by elongated sales cycles and severely depressed utilization rates,” said Mr. Fairweather. “We expect an improvement over the balance of F27 based on improved billings and selective cost reductions, although numbers come down on the year. We are also concerned that the slowdown will negatively impact bids through the strategic review process, which could lead to a failed process and meaningful downside on the stock until signs of a financial reacceleration emerge. As a result, we are downgrading the stock.”
In other analyst actions:
* In response to better-than-anticipated quarterly results, Raymond James’ Stephen Boland upgraded Pollard Banknote Ltd. (PBL-T) to “outperform” from “market perform” and hiked his target to $28 from $21.50. The average is $27.63.
“We see several positives from the quarter, including customer mix returning toward historical levels, scheduled 2H26 ticket volumes above 2Q26 levels, incremental California volumes and strong eTab results in Minnesota. As the Belgium contract moves from onboarding into the development stage, increasing revenue recognition should provide incremental earnings support in the coming quarters. Offsetting this momentum, the Michigan iLottery contract terminated in July, removing a business that contributed $6.5 million of revenue and $2.3 million of income before profit share and income taxes in 2Q26.”
“Pollard operates in an oligopolistic industry with high barriers to entry and long-standing customer relationships. We expect growth from California and Belgium to more than offset the Michigan loss. Longer term, Colorado and continued iLottery growth provide additional earnings upside and should support margins. We are upgrading our rating to an Outperform due to the increase in our target return.”
* Haywood Securities’ Neal Gilmer, who is currently the lone analyst covering Toronto-based Auxly Cannabis Group Inc. (XLY-T), raised his target for its shares to $4 from $3.50, keeping a “buy” rating.
“Auxly reported strong Q2/26 financial results with both revenue and EBITDA exceeding our expectations,” he said. “Revenue of $45.8-million came in above our estimate of $41.1-million, driven by higher volumes and improved pricing across the flower portfolio, and better than expected margins drove adjusted EBITDA of $14.3-million. Growth continues to outpace the broader market, supported by a strong portfolio of brands across its core categories.”
“Following a full review of the financials and conversations with management, we have made upward revisions to our estimates both in 2026 and 2027. In our view our forecast is conservative given Auxly’s track record of outperforming, but we don’t want to get too aggressive at this time.”
* Scotia’s Mario Saric raised his Brookfield Corp. (BN-N, BN-T) target to US$54 from US$53 with a “sector outperform” rating, while TD Cowen’s Cherilyn Radbourne moved her target to US$61 from US$60 with a “buy” rating. The average is US$56.17.
“BAM is on track for record fundraising, the Brookfield ecosystem has unique advantages in AI infra, and Just Group adds a UK PRT platform. Structural simplification is well-advanced, which should be accretive to BAM’s fees and BN’s direct stakes. BN’s stub value assigns $8.50 to unlisted assets with an IFRS value of $18.00/share, offering significant upside optionality. BN is active on its NCIB.,” said Ms. Radbourne.
* Desjardins Securities’ Benoit Poirier raised his CAE Inc. (CAE-T) target to $49 from $48 with a “buy” rating, while TD Cowen’s Tim James increased his target to $45 from $43 with a “buy” rating. The average is $42.78.
“We view 1Q FY27 as a solid start to CAE’s transformation year. Civil margin pressure was largely driven by Middle East disruption already reflected in guidance, with the effects expected to subside over the next 1–2 quarters. Customer retention above 99 per cent, continued footprint reductions and an unchanged outlook support our confidence in the execution toward achieving the FY30 plan. Overall, we remain positive on CAE and see the negative reaction as a buying opportunity,” said Mr. Poirier.
* In a note titled On a Roll, Scotia’s Jonathan Goldman increased his Cascades Inc. (CAS-T) target to $20.50 from $16 with a “sector outperform” rating. The average is $15.93.
“Management deserves credit for significantly improved execution summarized in $55-million improvement to annualized run-rate EBITDA and $375-million FCF (21 per cent of market cap) generated over the past four quarters,” said Mr. Goldman. “While improved profitability is likely already reflected in consensus estimates, we see significant upside if another price increase goes through. Last week, the company announced a US$110/ton increase on linerboard and a US$140/ton increase on medium for September 8 deliveries. The increase has broad support with the six largest NA containerboard producers announcing similar increases this week. We think the prospects for a successful increase are pretty good with industry operating rates back up to 95 per cent in 2Q, a threshold that typically supports pricing power – and higher than the 90-91-per-cent level that accompanied the price increases in 2024 and 2025. Moreover, the net US$100/ton increase achieved year-to-date has mostly been eroded by cost inflation meaning producers did not really yet get the margin benefit following profound capacity rationalization in 2025 (10 per cent of industry capacity taking offline).”
“We think shares deserve a premium given upside from index pricing: for context, every US$25-million increase in liner/medium equates to a $17-million/$9-million impact to Cascades EBITDA on an annualized basis. While some transactions are taking longer, the company still expects to realize $230-million from asset divestitures vs. $163-million realized to date.”
* RBC’s Sabahat Khan raised his CCL Industries Inc. (CCL.B-T) target to $107, exceeding the $102.60 average, from $100 with an “outperform” rating. Other changes include: ATB Cormark’s David McFadgen to $104 from $102 with an “outperform” rating, TD Cowen’s Sean Steuart to $115 from $110 with a “buy” rating, Raymond James’ Michael Glen to $105 from $100 with an “outperform” rating and National Bank’s Ahmed Abdullah to $106 from $104 with an “outperform” rating.
“CCL reported Q2 results above consensus, with organic growth in the CCL segment coming in at a healthy 5.0 per cent. Looking ahead, CCL commentary for Q3 and the balance of the year is encouraging. We continue to monitor the back-to-school season for Avery and momentum in Innovia. At an EV/NTM [next 12-month] EBITDA of 10 times, we view CCL as attractively priced,” said Mr. Khan.
* Ahead of the release of its third-quarter results on Aug. 26 after the bell, TD Cowen’s Mario Mendonca hiked his EQB Inc. (EQB-T) target to $154 from $123 with a “buy” rating. The average is $133.86.
“We expect PCF to be the focus of attention in results filings and at the conference call,” he said. “The PCF deal will result in quarter-over-quarter increases in NII, fees, opex and PCLs. Ex. PCF, we expect flat loan growth (muted real estate activity), lower NIM (higher day count), and elevated but stable PCLs (no credit improvements).”
* Desjardins Securities’ Gary Ho increased his Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (CHE.UN-T) target to $18.50 from $17.25 with a “buy” rating. The average is $19.38.
“2Q results beat our estimates and consensus, driven mostly by lower corporate costs and a strong WS print. CHE reiterated 2026 EBITDA guidance of $485–525-milion with revised assumptions. While the North Van rezoning approval is a milestone, the judicial review petition (hearing expected in 2027) poses risk to the story, alongside $75–125-million of compliance capex. We tweaked our estimates; our target rises to $18.50 after rolling our valuation forward with a slight multiple bump,” said Mr. Ho.
* Mr. Ho reduced his Diversified Royalty Corp. (DIV-T) target to $4.75 from $5 with a “buy” rating, while ATB Cormark’s Jeff Fenwick moved his target to $7 from $7.25 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $5.49.
“2Q results modestly exceeded expectations, with normalized EBITDA of $20.6-million ahead of our $20.0-million estimate,” said Mr. Ho. “However, Mr. Lube (ML) SSSG slowed to 1.2 per cent, pressured by economic uncertainty and higher costs for drivers, though DIV reaffirmed its $58.7-million ML adjusted EBITDA contribution guidance post-closing. Sutton shifted to a variable royalty model ($7.2-million non-cash impairment). We lowered our multiple by 0.25 times to reflect moderating ML SSSG.”
* RBC’s Pammi Bir bumped his Extendicare Inc. (EXE-T) target to $39 from $38 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $39.61.
“Frankly, the pullback post strong Q2 results was surprising. High expectations, sector rotation, a steeper yield curve, or disappointment with margin compression – some, all, or other factors could be at work. Yet, our outlook continues to improve. Our earnings and NAV estimates moved up another notch, partly aided by ParaMed where the first look at CBI left us with a positive impression. Despite some short-term growing pains, we expect margin improvements to resurface. Bottom line, we like the entry here, with fundamental tailwinds at its back,” said Mr. Bir.
* National Bank’s Nathan Po increased his Mattr Corp. (MATR-T) target to $22, exceeding the $18.31 average, from $18 with an “outperform” rating, while Stifel’s Ian Gillies raised his target to $26 from $23 with a “buy” rating.
“On the back of strong Q2 results, a large secured international Flexpipe order (previously mentioned in Q1) worth north of $30-million in revenue, and Q3 O&G orders in hand, we see Q3’s $62.8-million guide as de-risked. We are calling for FY26 EBITDA of $209.2-million (was $193.3-million), 2 per cent above guidance and reflecting robust execution and industry tailwinds,” said Mr. Po.
* National Bank’s Maxim Sytchev reduced his North American Construction Group Ltd. (NOA-T) target to $28 from $30 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $26.
“Execution predictability is moving in the right direction and commentary around a permanent leadership announcement should alleviate any concerns (interim CEO has continued to deliver much welcome improvements). Overall, we believe the demand environment remains very robust in Australia and is getting better in Canada (as right-sizing has taken place while Nuna’s profitability has improved) as oil sands players are benefitting from a stronger commodity tape, and we hope for the contract funnel to translate into a meaningful Fargo replacement. While leverage ticked up due to incorporation of M&A into the balance sheet (IMC), having more asset-light exposure is a positive development. We continue to see value in NOA’s shares, trading below what we view as a replacement metric for the business,” said Mr. Sytchev.
* RBC’s Bart Dziarski moved his Onex Corp. (ONEX-T) target to $135 from $130 with a “sector perform” rating, while TD Cowen’s Graham Ryding cut his target to $163 from $165 with a “buy” rating. The average is $156.67.
“Onex remains a company in transition pivoting away from its core business to an operating company, with Convex now representing 44 per cent of invested capital. Invested capital per share of $124 USD was up 2 per cent year-over-year, up 3 per cent last 12 months, below our 5-per-cent longer-term assumption. The company expects to resume its share repurchases under its NCIB. Increasing our target to C$135 (from C$130) and maintain Sector Perform rating as we don’t see any near-term catalysts to drive a re-rating higher in the shares,” said Mr. Dziarski.
* National Bank’s Mohamed Sidibé moved his Orezone Gold Corp. (ORE-T) target to $3.50, matching the average, from $3.25 with an “outperform” rating.
“In our view, ORE is set up for a stronger H2/26 with plenty of positive catalysts expected, such as the Casa Berardi updated LOM plan in September, the Heva Hosco PEA in Q4/26, reserves and resources update at Bomboré in 2027 which should see meaningful increases and continuous exploration updates at Casa Berardi. The key partial offset remains Burkina Faso country risk, particularly as it relates to the timing of a Stage 2B investment decision,” said Mr. Sidibé.
* National Bank’s Patrick Kenny raised his target for Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure Ltd. (TWM-T) to $27 from $25 with an “outperform” rating. Other changes include: Scotia’s Robert Hope to $26 from $21 with a “sector perform” rating and ATB Cormark’s Nate Heywood to $26 from $24 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $19.50.
“TWM has maintained its 50-per-cent hedge position on crack spread exposure through the remainder of 2026, while recently locking in 40 per cent of 2027 exposure at levels above 2026e realized hedge pricing,” said Mr. Kenny. “Meanwhile, TWR has hedged 20 per cent of anticipated 2027 renewable diesel sales and on July 7 executed the Biofuel Production Incentive (BPI) contribution agreement with Natural Resources Canada. Elsewhere, TWR continues to advance its 6,500 bpd Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) project, supported by the recent New Initiative Agreement with the B.C. Government, greater CFR regulatory clarity expected this fall, along with execution of long-term offtake agreements to facilitate committed financing. Recall, we highlight $20/share (approximately 75 per cent) unrisked valuation upside assuming a $1.2-billion capital cost and $200-million annual EBITDA online by Q4/29.”
* National Bank’s Dan Payne hiked his Tidewater Renewables Ltd. (LCFS-T) target to $22.75 from $13.25 with an “outperform” rating, while ATB Cormark’s Nate Heywood raised his target to $19 from $16 with a “speculative buy” rating. The average is $13.81.
“Massive outperformance on the period, with resonance through the outlook and beyond (with potential option value of SAF increasingly being pulled forward), to which we are increasing our target price to $22.75 (from $13.25) which is a function of a) its increased guidance, but also b) a higher associated target multiple (7.0 times vs. prior 5.5 times) that reflects the strength of the business in distributable cash generation, de-leveraging and prospective option value to come,” said Mr. Payne.
* Raymond James’ Steven Li cut his Verticalscope Holdings Inc. (FORA-T) to $4 from $5 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $4.55.
“In-line 2Q26 results. But MAU was notable, growing 14 per cent year-over-year (the company first quarter year-over-year growth in MAU since F4Q24). FORA has continued to see reduced traffic from search engines (given AI) and that traffic is not making its way to FORA’s forums and websites to be monetized. This quarter, it was finally able to reverse the trend with its traffic diversification strategy,” said Mr. Li.
* RBC’s Matthew McKellar moved his target for Western Forest Products Inc. (WEF-T) to $18 from $16 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $15.38.
“We continue to positively view Western’s ongoing transition into higher value products and its broader optimization efforts, and acknowledge significant improvement in the company’s balance sheet that has increased its robustness to continued challenging conditions (e.g., unsupportive end markets, elevated duties and tariffs, and log supply constraints). However, we continue to see better relative opportunities in our coverage at present and reiterate our Sector Perform rating,” said Mr. McKellar.