Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
TD Cowen analyst Aaron MacNeil thinks TC Energy Corp.’s (TRP-T) quarterly earnings report reinforced its “U.S.-centric growth opportunity, with Appalachia establishing a scalable platform with clear multiple compression over time, while oversubscribed Crossroads/Columbus open seasons and growing backlog point to accelerating, capital-efficient growth through 2030.”
“Appalachia sets the stage for future growth: Management expects 4.0 Bcf/d of growth in the region by 2035, with future expansions to Appalachia requiring minimal capital for compression and minor facility modifications,” he said in a client note. “Beyond 2.0 Bcf/d, further pipe would be required.
“Opportunities will drive capex, not the other way around: Given the generational opportunity for growth, management noted that a self-imposed $6.0-billion/year CapEx limit will be less relevant in the latter part of the decade. Currently, projected spend including pending FID spend has capital increasing beyond $6.0-billion in 2030. Management noted that in-service sequencing for incremental projects would be in the 2029-2031 timeframe. Notably, management has $15-billion of projects in origination, beyond sanctioned projects and projects pending FID.”
On Friday, the Calgary-based company reported revenue of $3.861-billion, down 7 per cent from the third quarter and 8 per cent under Mr. MacNeil’s $4.203-billion estimate. However, EBITDA grew 4 per cent sequentially to $3.088-billion, exceeding his projection by 2 per cent of $3.039-billion, driven by the performance of its U.S. natural gas business.
“We have actualized for Q1/26 results and have not made any material changes to our 2026-2030 EBITDA estimates,” he said. “Note that our 2026 EBITDA estimate of $11.8 billion is toward the mid-upper end of management’s $11.6-billion to $11.8-billion guidance range. Similarly in 2028, our EBITDA of $12.8-billion also sits around the midpoint of the guide ($12.6-billion to $13.1-billion). Our capital spending forecasts remain unchanged.”
Maintaining his “hold” rating for TC Energy shares, Mr. MacNeill raised his target to $90 from $88. The average is $93.93.
“The fundamental drivers supporting TC’s business remain incredibly positive following its Q1/26 results, with management continuing to put forward a compelling long-term business outlook featuring low execution risk, high return organic growth. In this context, we highlight that investors have rewarded TC with a premium valuation. Specifically, TC is currently trading at a 2026E EV/EBITDA of 14.3 times, above its historical 10-year mean of 12.1 times and at a premium to its Canadian peers (average: 12.6 times). To reflect continued de-risking of its growth outlook with a meaningful project announcement as well as continued multiple expansion, our price target increases to $90/share and we are maintaining our HOLD rating,” he explained.
Elsewhere, other analysts making target revisions include:
* RBC’s Maurice Choy to $95 from $92 with an “outperform” rating.
“Amid the in line Q1/26 results and reaffirmation of near-term guidance ranges reinforcing TC Energy’s operational momentum, the core of the company’s growth stock investment thesis remains solidly intact. Specifically, the Appalachia Supply Project sanctioning and the open season oversubscriptions at Crossroads and Columbus underscore TC Energy’s opportunity (and ability) to capture power and data center-related demand in high-growth corridors, while regulatory settlements on the Canadian Mainline, ANR, and Great Lakes reinforce earnings stability. Backed by a balance sheet that is tracking toward the 4.75 times debt/ EBITDA target, we believe TC Energy’s capital-efficient growth model is working as designed,” said Mr. Choy.
* National Bank’s Patrick Kenny to $92 from $86 with an “outperform” rating
RBC Dominion Securities analyst Irene Nattel says recent channel checks, peer performance, management commentary around holiday performance suggest Aritzia Inc.’s (ATZ-T) strong performance in its current fiscal year continued through its fourth quarter.
Ahead of its quarterly release on May 7, she’s forecasting fourth-quarter results “at or above” the Vancouver-based retailer’s guidance and predicts investor focus will “likely to be on F27 outlook and underlying assumptions.”
In a client note released before the bell, Ms. Nattel made a series of forecasts adjustments to “reflect growing confidence in growth algo and brand heat, rising penetration/long growth runway in the U.S., and enhanced digital options with re-launch of international shopping site in August and new mobile app late October.”
She’s projecting earnings per share of $1.06, up from 83 cents during the same quarter a year ago and 4 cents above the consensus. She expects revenue to grow 27.6 per cent year-over-year to $1.142-billion, topping the Street’s projection of $1.137-billion.
“F27 guidance anticipated in conjunction with Q4 results,” said Ms. Nattel. “Revenue already one year ahead of plan formulated late 2022, EBITDA ‘high teens” broadly consistent with 19 per cent initial target. In our view, with tariff headwinds abating and with stronger than expected top line growth and related scaling, F27E EBITDA margin should trend higher.”
Keeping her “outperform” rating for Aritzia shares, she hiked her target to a high on the Street of $175, up from $150. The average is $150.66.
“With current momentum and planned boutique openings, ATZ should deliver sector leading top- and bottom-line growth, with EBITDA/EPS growth forecaster 20 plus per cent/30 plus per cent,” she said. “Growth driven by: i) strong SSS [same-store sales] performance, ii) step-up in unit growth; iii) highly effective expansions/relocations; and iv) rising e-commerce sales and penetration.
“Entry into new markets, strong merchandising strategy and scalable eCommerce model should drive sustained profitable market share growth. ATZ’s merchandising strategy provides a high level of flexibility to adapt the offering to shifting consumer demand, critical as consumer spending ebbs and flows with broader macro backdrop. Despite pressure on household wallets across most income cohorts, ATZ everyday luxury positioning and strong pricing strategy underpinning rising consumer loyalty, and boutique openings in new markets extending TAM across channels. True omnichannel, margin-agnostic model should enable the Company toprofitably grow revenues in both bricks-and-mortar and online as ATZ extends its footprint into new markets in the U.S.”
Scotia Capital analyst Jonathan Goldman lowered his forecast for TerraVest Industries Inc. (TVK-T) after the results from Wabash National Corp. (WNC-N) “showed the trailer market, while stabilizing, was slightly lower quarter-over-quarter” and likely to weigh on the contributions from 2025 acquisition EnTrans International.
“Admittedly, this revision may be: (1) conservative as Entrans is a less commoditized version of Wabash whose trailers have definite useful life; and (2) backward-looking as key freight indicators are showing signs of improvement, namely U.S. contract rates renewing at high-single-digits to low-double-digits with spot rates rising even faster; and ATA For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index improving for the third consecutive month in March,” he said. “Wabash noted increasing visibility into a recovery underscored by backlog build up 19 per cent quarter-over-quarter.”
In a client note released before the bell titled The Weight, Mr. Goldman said his adjustments also account for “potential lags on pass-through of higher steel costs from S232 in TerraVest’s residential HVAC business.”
“We think there is high probability that TVK can generate more than $400 million of EBITDA next year,” he added. “Using 1QF26 run-rate as a starting point ($270-million annualized) and layering on: (1) the U.S. Army contract ($30-million); (2) a recovery in EnTrans ($40 million); and (3) Highland Tank data center backlog conversion. At 10.5 times EV/EBITDA, in-line with freight peer TFII-CA and other compounders, despite having superior EBITDA/share growth, that implies a share price of $154/share. That excludes additional upside from M&A. We forecast net debt to EBITDA excluding leases of 2.8x exiting F2026 and 1.8 times exiting F2027. We believe management has a comfort range of less than 2.5 times, but will go to 3.5 times for a larger deal.”
Keeping his “sector outperform” rating for the Toronto-based company, he reduced his target to $178 from $187. The average is $184.
“Our model does not include any upside from data center backlog delivery in F2026. TVK shares are down 18 per cent year-to-date and are trading below levels prior to the announcement of the transformative acquisition of Entrans,” he said. “Shares are trading at 10.2 times EV/EBITDA on our 2027E, which does not include any unannounced M&A. TVK shares are typically volatile around quarters with the average up/down move more than 10 per cent. We would be buyers post-results either way as we gain more visibility into Entrans rate of change and as freight is nearing an inflection point.”
National Bank Financial analyst Dan Payne sees International Petroleum Corp. (IPCO-T) cementing “a strategy of making bold, counter-cyclical investments towards establishing disciplined returns & durable free cash flow through long‑life, low‑decline assets."
He emphasizes the importance of the B.C.-based company having established itself as a multi‑jurisdictional operator with a geographically diversified asset base stretching to Canada, Malaysia and France.
“The significance of its consolidated asset base, and the associated sustainable earnings profile, has positioned the company for one of its most important organic inflections; the sanctioning of the Blackrod thermal oil project, and the execution of which should prove transformational for the company & its returns,” said Mr. Payne. “The project, previously embedded within BlackPearl’s portfolio, was formally sanctioned in February 2023, and through Phase 1 should establish a multi-decade 30 mbbl/d thermal oil project and associated durability of free cash generation. With first steam having been achieved in December 2025 (ahead of schedule), visibility to first production sits for mid-year 2026 (a meaningful catalyst to come), while plateau thereafter (offering a sustainable FCF profile of ~$200 mln per annum) is expected in late-2027.”
The analyst emphasized the International Petroleum’s “asset orientation and corporate strategy should expose a meaningful value opportunity as it continues to harvest large OOIP assets towards FCF generation, which is significantly suggested through embedded thematics, which distill an unrisked value proposition of up to $70-100 per share over the long-term (re-rate to a 7-8-per-cent peer average aggregate FCF yield; supported by catalysts, execution, scarcity and near-term complements to come).”
“With that, IPC stands very well positioned to capitalize on a forthcoming value inflection through ramping FCF in association with Blackrod, in support of a resonant strategy to continue compounding value and establishing outsized returns through its bold approach for reinvestment in high-impact, long-duration assets,” he added “Ultimately, the company’s asset exposures being harvested by this management team, are ideally positioned to translate massive FCF from an enormous OOIP opportunity in support of outsized value creation.”
Mr. Payne initiated coverage of International Petroleum with a “sector perform” rating and $45 target, pointing to an estimated total return of 17.2 per cent. The average on the Street is $39.80.
“Our Sector Perform rating exists as we await formal achievement of its ‘first oil’ milestone at Blackrod, and continued validation of technical parameters, which will ultimately serve as the foundation for the ultimate economic outcome of the project and its impact on corporate value,” he said. “As these milestones are met and validation is achieved, we expect our valuation paradigm will accommodate a more optimistic rating (noting that critical mass of the project will not be fully evident to financials until 2028).
“As evidence of the ultimate value proposition with validation of its execution; IPCO is poised for a 60-per-cent total return (vs. peers 27 per cent) on leverage of negative 0.2 times D/CF (vs. peers negative 0.1 times), while trades at 5.9 times 2027 estimated EV/DACF (vs. peers 5.4 times).”
As CAE Inc.’s (CAE-T) first-quarter earnings release approaches, Desjardins Securities analyst Benoit Poirier thinks its shares have been “hit by a perfect trifecta: network restructuring uncertainty, fuel-led airline sell-off and blue-wave defence fears.”
“CAE’s shares are down 15 per cent year-to-date, underperforming the S&P/TSX, which is up 7 per cent, and are now effectively near where they were when Browning West disclosed its 4-per-cent stake at the end of 2024,” he said. “In other words, the stock has given back all gains from the post-Matt Bromberg hire/Canada defence budget rally, despite nothing structurally changing in the story. Instead, the pullback appears largely driven by external and geopolitical factors that have added uncertainty.
“First, following CAE’s 3Q results, we proactively adjusted our model for network restructuring and asset divestitures, and came out with the lowest FY27 transition-year numbers on the Street. Since then, several other analysts have lowered estimates (with FY27 numbers now all over the map), creating uncertainty around the size of the air pocket and the pace of recovery. Ultimately, we believe this overhang could ease once CAE provides FY27 and longer‑term targets with 4Q results at the end of May, allowing the Street to look past the noise and price the stock on cleaner numbers. Adding to this uncertainty was the Iran war and coincident spike in oil prices, which pressured airline stocks (the global airlines ETF JETS is down 8 per cent ytd) and created further selling pressure in CAE shares. This was followed by the recent sell-off in defence names, despite rising geopolitical tensions and higher defence budgets globally, driven by increased ‘blue wave’ risk tied to President Trump’s low approval ratings (ie the possibility of significant Democratic gains in the upcoming midterms that could influence the size of the defence budget). Overall, as noted above, we view these as temporary short-term phenomena, while the medium- to long-term backdrop for both commercial aviation and defence spending remains directionally up and to the right. Furthermore, as we have published on several occasions, CAE is the largest and one of the few defence contractors in Canada, and we expect it to benefit meaningfully from the increased Canadian defence budget over the coming years (well above the 4–5-per-cent industry growth range quoted by CEO Matt Bromberg last month). Key upcoming opportunities include the Future Fighter Lead-in Training (FFLIT) program, training/simulation for Canada’s next-generation submarine fleet, and training/simulation for the SAAB-BBD GlobalEye Airborne Early Warning and Control aircraft, which recently won the NATO mandate (see our note) and remains the leading candidate for the Canadian Air Force contract."
In a note released before the bell titled The best is yet to come, Mr. Poirier “modestly” lowered his estimates for the Montreal-based company to reflect higher fuel prices, however he emphasized he remains “encouraged by the strength of the bizjet and defence markets, as well as CAE’s upcoming transformation plan.”
“We expect the transformation journey to take 3–4 years," he said “As CAE continues to reap the benefits from key actions undertaken and benefit from a strong market environment for civil and defence, we expect utilization and margins to increase further. Assuming slightly lower valuation multiples as earnings become more normalized, we foresee a value of $57/share based on FY29E and $65/share based on FY30E.”
Maintaining his “buy” rating for CAE shares, he cut his target to $50 from $52. The average is $48.16.
In other analyst actions:
* Seeing a “focus on growth catalysts materializing in 2026,” National Bank’s Shane Nagle bumped his target for Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM-T) to $350 from $345 with a “sector outperform” rating. The average is $370.53.
“We continue to model production growth to 4.3 million ounces by 2034 to be confirmed by technical reports for Hope Bay (H1/26) and San Nicolas, overview of Canadian Malartic expansion opportunities in Q3/26 and approval of Detour Lake U/G & Upper Beaver in 2027,” Mr. Nagle said. “Our growth estimates are set to improve with the inclusion of recent acquisitions in Finland creating a pathway to become a 500 koz production hub within the next decade.”
“Agnico Eagle finished Q1 with US$2.91-billion in net cash and the company plans to target an expanded US$2.0-billion NCIB. With the balance sheet in a strong net cash position, AEM will continue to focus on returning cash to shareholders while accelerating the development of its organic growth portfolio providing incremental catalysts throughout the year.”
* Ahead of the release of its first-quarter results on May 13, Desjardins Securities’ Gary Ho lowered his target for shares of Boyd Group Services Inc. (BYD-T) to $260 from $270 with a “buy” rating. The average is $255.32.
“While we have trimmed our estimates to reflect temporary lower traffic in 1Q, we believe the fundamental backdrop is improving, supported by normalization of repairable claims reported by several industry peers. We remain constructive on the story, with improving SSSG, JHCC synergies, a robust pipeline for both start-ups and acquisitions, and margin expansion driven by Project 360 cost-saving and optimization initiatives,” said Mr. Ho.
* In a report titled Twin Engines Firing; Organic Development and Capital Recycling Power the Road Ahead, National Bank’s Baltej Sidhu raised his target for Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P. (BEP-N, BEP.UN-T) to US$36 from US$34, keeping a “sector outperform” rating, following a first-quarter beat, while TD Cowen’s Sean Steuart moved his target to US$39 from US$38 with a “buy” rating. The average is US$36.47.
“BEP retains strong financial flexibility, with $4.7-billion of liquidity and a scalable asset recycling program,” said Mr. Sidhu. “The company has generated $2.8-billion of proceeds year-to-date ($800-million net), with ’26 shaping up to be a robust recycling year amid strong buyer demand. This recycling activity supports funding for organic growth and new investments and is expected to contribute roughly one-third of the $9–10-billion five-year equity deployment target. Separately, management is evaluating a potential transition to a single, combined corporate structure, which could enhance trading liquidity and support broader index inclusion.“
* In a note titled Mr. Market was not fair or friendly, RBC’s Bart Dziarski raised his Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. (FFH-T) target to US$2,277 from US$2,261 with an “outperform” rating following “neutral” quarterly results. The average is $2,724.27 (Canadian).
“FFH stock’s 8-per-cent decline following Q1/26 results, which we viewed as in- line, was the single-biggest one-day decline since Liberation Day in April 2025 and the February 2024 short report on the name,” said Mr. Dziarski. “Both turned out to be great buying opportunities and we view this time as no different. Balance sheet remains strong with $2.5-billion of cash and a 27-per-cent leverage ratio. We continue to believe FFH stock is overly discounted, trading at 1.1 times forward P/B. We reiterate FFH as our top value pick and derive our $2,277 target (was $2,261) by applying a 1.5 times P/B on Q2/27E BVPS.”
* RBC’s Pammi Bir moved his Morguard REIT (MRT.UN-T) target to $6.50 from $6, which is the average, with a “sector perform” rating.
“We curbed our earnings outlook on the back of a slower than anticipated Q1, particularly in NOI. While pressures in the office portfolio will likely persist, we expect the retail assets to continue delivering moderate organic growth. As well, the HBC and broader mall repositioning exercises should ultimately drive incremental value in the years ahead. That said, with MRT’s leverage and payout ratios at elevated levels, we see more limited upside in valuation,” said Mr. Bir.
* TD Cowen’s Derek Lessard, currently the lone analyst covering Pizza Pizza Royalty Corp. (PZA-T), reduced his target to $14 from $16 with a “hold” rating.
“We expect the shares to react negatively [Monday] given the deteriorating same-store sales growth trend and the low (and declining) working capital reserve. While we continue to view PZA as a solid operator with numerous internal initiatives, low consumer confidence and intense competition under a soft macro backdrop are not constructive for any meaningful SSSG improvements in the near term.”
* With momentum building for its U.S. title segment, National Bank’s Richard Tse raised his Real Matters Inc. (REAL-T) target to $7.50 from $7 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $8.
“All in, we think the FQ2 results were solid and reflect the Company’s execution to scale its U.S. Title business while increasing market share (across Appraisal and Title) and surfacing operating leverage. That said, the uncertain rate environment continues to lend to a balanced risk-to-reward profile,” said Mr. Tse.
* TD Cowen’s Cherilyn Radbourne increased her Toromont Industries Ltd. (TIH-T) target to $240 from $232 with a “buy” rating. The average is $222.50.
“The Street is cautious on Toromont’s valuation, but Q1/26 was a solid beat, with growth across most markets/regions in the Equipment Group, record backlog, and quarter-over-quarter growth in the mining backlog. AVL likely offers more short-term upside vs. downside: its growth/margins will inevitably slow, but still have a product support ramp from substantial 2021–2025 mining deliveries ahead and nation-building infra,” she said.