Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
While Raymond James analyst Michael Barth emphasized “momentum persists” for Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE-T), he lowered his rating for its shares to “outperform” from “strong buy” due to valuation concerns.
“With another solid quarter in the books, we continue to see lots of positive operational momentum across the business,” he explained. “At the same time, CVE has delivered a total return of nearly 60 per cent since we upgraded to Strong Buy last October (and has outperformed the peer group average by 11 per cent). Similarly, it has been the best performing name in the peer group since the Iran conflict started. While valuation still looks reasonably compelling at a 15-per-cent/12-per-cent sustaining FCF yield on our 2026/2027 estimates, we are moving the stock to an Outperform rating on valuation. Despite the rating change, we continue to view CVE as offering amongst the best risk-adjusted returns in our large cap coverage group today.”
In a client note released before the bell, he called the Calgary-based company’s results “another solid quarterly print” with refining is “trending better than expected, and that should persist." He now sees its Investor Day “setting up to be a very positive catalyst.”
The Upstream business continues to show a lot of promise, with better than expected results and momentum behind some key assets like Christina Lake North (previously MEG) and Sunrise,“ said Mr. Barth. ”We continue to believe that there is significant upside to production at these assets, and when pressed on the call about this potential, management repeatedly deferred any updates to the IR Day slated for January. The tone suggests we should expect to see an extended production growth runway through the end of the decade (if not beyond). Similarly, we get the sense that sufficient progress has been made in Refining that we might also see higher guidance for run-rate margin capture.
“Valuation remains compelling. We have CVE trading at a 15-per-cent/12-per-cent sustaining free cash flow yield on our 2026/2027 estimates, which assumes average WTI prices of just US$82/$73. This strikes us as fairly attractive considering potential upside to that commodity price deck, clear operational momentum into the IR Day, an increasingly resilient balance sheet, and long reserve life.”
Mr. Barth’s target for Cenovus shares is now $42 target, up from $41 and above the $41.06 average on the Street, according to LSEG data.
Elsewhere, other analysts making target revisions include:
* Scotia’s Kevin Fisk to $44 from $38 with a “sector outperform” rating.
“CVE’s Q1/26 CFPS exceeded expectations by 17 per cent driven by exceptionally strong U.S. downstream margin capture. Management noted they are seeing strong crack spreads, but expect margin capture to normalize in Q2/26 and Q3/26. CVE’s investor day in January 2027 will outline the company’s plan to exceed the $400-million/year synergy target at Christina Lake North as well as illustrate other opportunities for growth. We view the upcoming investor day as a catalyst for the stock. We have increased our target price to $44/sh reflecting CVE’s strong execution and deep inventory of thermal growth opportunities,” said Mr. Fisk.
* RBC’s Greg Pardy to $45 from $42 with an “outperform” rating.
“Our constructive stance towards Cenovus reflects its capable leadership team, shareholder alignment, free cash flow generation and enhanced portfolio via the MEG Energy acquisition/WRB disposition. We are maintaining an Outperform recommendation on Cenovus and raising our one-year price target price by $3 (7 per cent) to $45 per share, based on improved consistency and expanded multiple,” said Mr. Pardy.
While Element Fleet Management Corp.’s (EFN-T) first-quarter results exceeded Raymond James analyst Stephen Boland’s expectations, he is “concerned regarding corporate spending and fleet investment decisions due to economic conditions, with limited near-term visibility on a rebound.”
That led him to downgrade his rating for its shares to “outperform” from “strong buy” previously.
After the bell on Wednesday, the Toronto-based company reported earnings per share for the quarter of 35 cents, a penny above the estimates of Mr. Boland and the Street. Net revenue increased 17 per cent year-over-year to $324-million, “driven by strength across Net Financing Revenue (NFR) and Syndication.”
“Management maintained full-year guidance,” he added. “Notably, this implies a step-up in originations through the balance of the year, as the 1Q26 run-rate ($1.45-billion) is below the $6.5-billion–$6.9-billion full-year target. Q2 and Q3 tend to be the quarters with the highest origination volumes."
Mr. Boland trimmed his target for Element Fleet shares to $42, matching the average on the Street, from $42.50.
A pair of analysts on the Street downgraded Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU-T) following the release of its first-quarter results after the bell on Monday.
Citing the Calgary-based company’s valuation, Canaccord Genuity’s Mike Mueller moved his recommendation to “hold” from “buy” while maintaining a $70 target. The average target on the Street is $69.85.
“Wednesday, after market, Tourmaline (TOU) reported Q1/26 results. Production averaged 666,089 boe/d last quarter, in line with our 667,597 boe/d forecast and consensus at 663,720 boe/d. CFPS of $2.23 was below expectations of $2.33 (CGe) and $2.27 (consensus),” said Mr. Mueller.
“While we continue to view TOU as a resilient E&P with massive scale across regions, capable of delivering impressive growth through the balance of the decade, we believe the stock to be fairly valued ahead of what we believe to be another summer of weak western North American natural gas prices. Accordingly, we have reduced our rating/”
Elsewhere, BMO Capital’s Randy Ollenberger lowered Tourmaline to “market perform” from “outperform” with a $70 target, up from $67.
“TOU’s share price has moved in line with our target price, and we see limited room for further multiple expansion given the large premium to peers,” said Mr. Ollenberger. “Furthermore, TOU’s natural gas volumes are heavily exposed to floating WCAD and U.S. Pacific prices, which we suspect will continue to underperform in the near term due to growing storage levels. “Accordingly, we are lowering our investment opinion to Market Perform but modestly raising our target price to $70.”
He added: “. At the current strip, the shares are trading at a 2027 EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.5 times versus CAD gas producers of 4.5 times and U.S. gas producers of 5.0 times. We believe the premium is well justified given the company’s deep inventory, strong capital efficiencies and extensive gas marketing strategy. That said, we see limited room for further multiple expansion. Furthermore, we believe the near-term outlook for both AECO/Stn 2 and U.S. Pacific gas prices remains constrained given surging storage levels. In 2026/2027, roughly 35 per cent/60 per cent of TOU’s gas volumes will be tied to floating WCAD prices, while 13 per cent will flow to the U.S. Pacific, leaving the company heavily exposed.”
In the wake of a year-to-date “run in shares/narrowing in the valuation gap versus global franchise peers,” Citi analyst Jon Tower said he was not surprised by the 5.5-per-cent drop in the share price for Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR-N, QSR-T) on Wednesday “given some choppiness in the core Tim Hortons Canada business, softer global unit growth in the period and limited signs that Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen’s U.S. business has found a floor.”
However, he emphasized the company’s Burger King business south of the border “appears to be accelerating share gains, management remained committed to FY26 guidance, and there was limited evidence to suggest anything has structurally changed to the negative since last print/Feb investor event.”
“We expect shares generally tread water until there’s evidence that BK US/TH CAN same-store sales have broken out and unit growth has found better footing,” he added.
The Toronto-based company slid following the premarket release of its first-quarter earnings results, which first-quarter revenue of US$2.264-billion, exceeding Mr. Tower’s $2.228-billion estimate, however diluted earnings per share of 86 US cents was a penny below the analyst’s forecast.
“Key points from the call & follow-up — (1) Focus of the BK U.S. business remains improving the core (Whopper, family, value) rather than other parts of the business (e.g., breakfast, which sits at low-double-digits percentage mix) or extending into new platforms (e.g., specialty beverage). Currently there are no plans to respond to a larger competitor’s pivot to $3/$4 price points in the US. (2) Current run-rate of PLK U.S. business would imply positive comps by 2H26, with greater value push/food investment/ops initiatives being additive to comp growth. (3) When pressed on international NUG flipping to negative in the period, QSR suggested this was in-line with normal seasonality (generally higher opens 4Q/closures 1Q) and that BK China has yet to see a meaningful uptick in openings (expected to be modestly positive in ’26),” he said in a client note
“Debates from here: Can TH Canada comps reaccelerate should the Canadian economy remain challenged? Outside of China, what international markets can spur NRG to more than 3 per cen in 26? How sustainable is the BK U.S. recovery and how will competitive discounting/promo activity impact the comp path and ultimately franchisee willingness to remodel?
Reaffirming his “neutral” rating for Restaurant Brands shares, Mr. Tower reduced his target to US$84 from US$88. The average is US$83.16.
“The company has demonstrated an ability to improve franchisee profitability in core home markets across the portfolio, and we expect this broadly continues, along with strong unit growth for Burger King International, ramping of PLK brand globally and solid comp growth at TH Canada,” he said. :However, limited visibility into the economics of nascent businesses outside core markets (eg, PLK INTL, TH INTL, FHS) means it is difficult to underwrite NRG (new restaurant growth) returning to and sustaining at more than 5 per cent and layering this into valuation. At the same time, we see above-average room for near- to medium-term estimate volatility related to the Burger King US brand repositioning/reinvestment, particularly as the competitive set ramps promotional activity to drive traffic."
Elsewhere, Scotia’s John Zamparo raised his target to $83 from $81 with a “sector perform” rating.
“Sustaining RBI’s solid year-to-date performance required another meaningful positive catalyst and that was absent from the Q1 print. If anything, we saw some incremental negatives, including weaker SSS at Tims and PLK, and lower NRG. However, the Q1 BK US SSS result was still remarkable. The segment that had generated an outsized focus from investors now looks on very solid footing, and INTL keeps working. We expect the stock to trade on BK comp updates near term; we’ve become more positive on this stock though believe recent performance has adequately reflected internal improvements,” said Mr. Zamparo.
The management team of Russel Metals Inc. (RUS-T) “continues to demonstrate its ability to find accretive assets to acquire, extract synergies, and find hidden value in real estate where they can (while, of course, operating the existing platform well),” according to National Bank Financial analyst Maxim Sytchev.
However, he warned investors “to be mindful” that the company’s recent share price movement is “predicated on higher levels of HRC / plate pricing as same-store volumes were down 2 per cent year-over-year in the quarter while management talked about a flat sequential outlook in Q2/26E.”
“We have also demonstrated empirically that steel pricing has a tendency to peak in spring, potentially creating a better entry point later this year,” he added in a client note titled More of a tactical skew waiting for a fatter pitch. “We remain patient while commending management on solid execution amid a strong commodity tape.
Shares of the Toronto-based metal distribution company soared 6.3 per cent on Wednesday after it reported quarterly revenue of $1.418-billion, up 21 per cent year-over-year and 3 per cent higher than the consensus expectation of $1.375-million. Adjusted earnings per share rose 20 per cent to 85 cents, topping the Street by 9 cents.
“Market conditions strengthened through Q1/26 with momentum carrying into Q2/26,” said Mr. Sytchev. “The U.S. now contributes more revenue than Canada and delivers higher margins due to stronger macro conditions; management sees the U.S. revenue mix continuing to rise over time (potentially to 60-70 per cent), while remaining open to M&A in both geographies.
“Kloeckner integration on track; margin convergence a multi‑quarter process. Kloeckner generated $8-million of EBITDA in Q1/26, in line with expectations but about -300 bps below legacy RUS MSC [metals service centers]margins on a same‑store basis. After meaningful invested capital reductions, the effective deal multiple is 4 times EV/EBITDA. The margin gap is expected to narrow through 2027E via phased initiatives: procurement and business practices first, systems integration around year‑end, and longer‑term capex initiatives / value‑added capability investment.”
Also touting Russel’s “capital discipline with rising reinvestment ahead,” Mr. Sytchev emphasized the outlook for each of its segments appears “stable with selective upside” and calling Canada “a longer‑dated lever."
“EFS [Energy field stores] and Steel Distribution margins are expected to remain stable near term, with upside to EFS if elevated oil prices persist. Management remains optimistic on Canadian infrastructure spending - particularly in energy and data centres - though benefits from ‘nation-building’ projects will materialize gradually. Within the data center space, RUS supplies both data centre structures and internal rack systems, positioning it to participate as projects advance,” he said.
Keeping an “outperform” rating for its shares, Mr. Sytchev raised his target by $1 to $52. The average on the Street is $54.76.
Elsewhere, in a client note titled The Trend Is Still Your Friend, Scotia Capital’s Jonathan Goldman raised his target to $62 from $54 with a “sector outperform” rating.
“We raised our 2026/2027 estimates by 4 per cent/5 per cent to reflect 1Q actuals, 2Q guidance, and spot prices,” said Mr. Goldman. “Our estimates may prove conservative, particularly on volumes as intimated on the earnings call. We raised our valuation multiple to 9.5 times, above historicals, as we believe a premium is warranted given a favourable steel backdrop, EBITDA upside from Kloeckner integration, and B/S optionality with 1x net debt leverage. HRC and plate prices are 12 per cent and 13 per cent above the 1Q average (as of April 27). On the call, management noted steady demand from mills and tight supply with operating rates near 80 per cent. Lead times are extended, and supply chain inventories are modest.
“While there is a ‘Made in Canada’ price below the U.S. benchmark, we see RUS as a net beneficiary of S232 (a rising tide lifts all boats). We estimate Kloeckner margins are 300bp below legacy and management has a track record of delivering on synergies. The initial phase will focus on business practices, but there is an opportunity to increase value-add mix in line with legacy. We estimate value-add has more than 2 times gross margins as simple pass-through. RUS shares trade at a 4.7-times discount to RS compared to the 5-year and 10-year average of 1.6 times and 2.8 times, respectively.”
Other changes include:
* Raymond James’ Frederic Bastien to $65 from $60 with an “outperform” rating.
“We believe RUS is well-positioned to capitalize on the groundwork laid over the past three years. With Samuel and Tampa Bay Steel integrated into its network, a clear improvement playbook for the seven new Kloeckner branches, and $1.8-billion of value-add investments now in place, RUS has the pieces needed to translate a strengthening steel market into meaningful earnings growth,” said Mr. Bastien.
* Stifel’s Ian Gillies to $58.50 from $49 with a “hold” rating.
“RUS is benefitting alongside other ‘old world’ businesses from the ‘HALO’ effect. This stock market effect is being further aided by the company’s smart capital allocation policy and elevated steel prices,” said Mr. Gillies.
* RBC’s James McGarragle to $63 from $55 with an “outperform” rating.
“Russel Metals reported a strong Q1 result and provided Q2 guidance that pointed to upside to prior expectations. The quarter clearly demonstrates the industrial economy is turning, which we believe Russel is very well positioned to capitalize on. We therefore like the near-term pricing and demand setup and expect street estimates to move higher post Q1. We also see Russel as well- positioned longer-term to capitalize on secular tailwinds, including data centre construction and nation building projects, which we do not believe is reflected in current valuation, despite the ~40% share price move off late-2025 levels,” he said.
Ahead of the release of its first-quarter results on May 14, RBC Dominion Securities analyst Irene Nattel reiterated her view that Canadian Tire Corp. Ltd.’s (CTC.A-T) valuation understates its flagship retail division’s “strong positioning and solid profitability,” however she is “adopting a more conservative stance for the rest of 2026.”
In a client note released before the bell, Ms. Nattel adjusted to her underlying assumptions, particularly for the first quarter to “reflect resilient consumer demand through the end 2025, seasonal winter weather, and for SportChek, tailwind from the Olympic Winter Games and in Q2, the World Cup and Hockey Playoffs (Go Habs Go!).”
She’s now projecting quarterly earnings per share of $1.91, up from $1.60 previously but down 4.3 per cent year-over-year (from $2).
“Our estimates reflect: i) calendar shift with Q1 starting early January, ending Easter weekend, ii) pull forward of winter merchandise demand late Q4 with early onset of weather that continued in January, iii) related replenishment cycle likely more robust than prior year as weather hit earlier vs February 2025, iv) strong patriotic purchasing H1 2025, and v) continued investments to drive long-term growth, with cadence of benefits expected to accelerate in 2026,” she said.
The analyst said the company’s Retail division is benefitting from an operating environment that features “resilient, albeit cautious consumer spending, notably around discretionary goods.” However, she sees near-term growth from its Financial Services segment “moderated by step-up in spend to drive the business.”
“We expect CTR performance to underscore defensive bent of the offering, solid owned brands penetration, good/better/best architecture, and tailwind of a real Canadian winter. HBC Stripes a modest tailwind, notably in housewares at CTR, apparel at Mark’s and SportChek,” she added.
Maintaining her “outperform” rating for Canadian Tire shares, Ms. Nattel raised her target to $220 from $211. The average target is $192.99.
“With average annual 2026E/27E FCF close to $1-billion, in our view CTC is on solid footing to support annual dividend $375-million and NCIB $450-million (Q1 estimate: 0.36 million shares for $65-million),” she said. “In our view, key to valuation re-rating is sustaining same-store sales momentum/accelerating earnings conversion.”
In other analyst actions:
* Following Wednesday’s release of in-line quarterly results, ATB Cormark’s Tim Monachello raised his Ag Growth International Inc. (AFN-T) target to $25 from $22 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $25.83.
“We believe longer-term upside remains contingent on improved macro visibility and AFN executing on material deleveraging over the coming quarters,” said Mr. Monachello.
* RBC’s Maurice Choy increased his target for Atco Ltd. (ACO.X-T) to $71 from $66 with a “sector perform” rating, while Scotia’s Robert Hope raised his target to $70 from $67 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $70.20.
“Beyond the in line Q1/26 results, we see favourable trends across all three of ATCO’s chosen sectors: energy, housing, and defence. Not only does its stake in Canadian Utilities offer a competitive 7-per-cent rate base CAGR on an equity self-funded basis, S&L’s recent and upcoming contract wins, plus the seemingly accelerating pipeline of opportunities, suggest an outsized and diversified runway of growth ahead. While we remain neutral on the stock, we view ATCO’s stock as being the more attractive way to gain exposure to Canadian Utilities, with an additional torque into housing and defence-related themes across North America,” said Mr. Choy.
* Ahead of its quarterly release on May 14, ATB Cormark’s Chris Murray raised his target for shares of AtkinsRéalis Group Inc. (ATRL-T) to $123 from $122 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $116.57.
“We are lowering ATB estimates for Q1/26 to better reflect seasonality, given fewer operating days in the quarter and FX, and increasing 2026/2027 estimates to account for recent M&A,” said Mr. Murray. “We expect healthy levels of organic growth, particularly in Nuclear, and M&A to support a mid-teens EBITDA growth rate in Q1/26 before strengthening in H2/26. ATRL has been active on its NCIB in H1/26, taking advantage of softer valuations across the sector, with its balance sheet and improving FCF profile supportive of further buyback activity and stronger levels of inorganic growth. With shares trading at 13.3/11.2 times 2026/2027e EBITDA, we see attractive value in ATRL and would be buyers into the quarter.”
* Predicting a “softer near-term outlook will likely weigh on growth in 2026,” TD Cowen’s Jonathan Kelcher lowered his Boardwalk REIT (BEI.UN-T) target to $82 from $85, maintaining a “buy” rating. Other changes include: Desjardins Securities’ Kyle Stanley to $77 from $78 with a “buy” rating, Scotia’s Mario Saric to $74.50 from $75.50 with a “sector perform” rating and RBC’s Pammi Bir to $81 from $82 with an “outperform” rating. The average on the Street is $79.95.
“We view [Wednesday’s] 3-per-cent selloff as warranted following the reduced guidance,” Mr. Kelcher said. “While higher AB prop taxes will meaningfully decelerate SPNOI growth in H2, top line results appear to be improving with occupancy holding steady, monthly blended leasing spreads improving sequentially through April, and the Q1 MTM increasing. BEI remains our preferred multi-res name as we like the overweight to AB and SK.”
* Touting its “solid project execution,” National Bank’s Patrick Kenny bumped his Canadian Utilities Ltd. (CU-T) target to $46 from $45, keeping a “sector perform” rating, while RBC’s Maurice Choy raised his target to $50 from $49 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $48.
“Canadian Utilities reported Q1/26 adj. EPS of $0.89, slightly above our forecast of $0.86 (Street: $0.87), reflecting ATCO Energy Systems rate base growth and lower income tax expense from the March 2026 Bill C-15 enactment, partially offset by higher interest expense and share-based compensation. Meanwhile, the company reaffirmed its five-year capital plan of $12-billion for 2026–2030 with a rate base CAGR of 6.9 per cent,” said Mr. Kenny.
* TD Cowen’s John Mould bumped his Fortis Inc. (FTS-T) target to $84 from $83 with a “buy” rating. The average is $81.11.
“FTS’s Q1/26 EPS was slightly below our forecast; the potential for both regulatory improvement and DC load growth in AZ is intact. FTS offers exposure to broader load-growth trends; we believe its electricity weighting, diversification, and scale justify a premium valuation,” said Mr. Mould.
* Mr. Mould lowered his TransAlta Corp. (TA-T) target to $26 from $27 with a “buy” rating. The average is $23.
“2026 guidance was reaffirmed, with soft Q1 EBITDA and challenging Alberta power pricing mitigated by high levels of hedging. TA continues to make progress on its 230 MW DC initiative (MOU with CPP, Brookfield). We anticipate further progress on the broad AB DC theme in Q2, including AESO Phase 2 updates and a potential FID for the 970 MW Kineticor allocation,” said Mr. Mould.
* TD Cowen’s Mario Mendonca hiked his Great-West Lifeco Inc. (GWO-T) target to $80 from $73 with a “buy” rating. The average is $72.
“We characterize GWO’s Q1/26 results as the strongest among the large insurers so far. Solid growth in the U.S. Retirement & Wealth earnings (margins) and better flows in Retirement (slightly softer net flows in Wealth), accelerating growth in Capital Solutions and a nearly 20-per-cent ROE in the quarter support this characterization. Buyback activity has continued at a strongpace into 2026,” he said.
* In response to first-quarter “outperformance” and seeing its shares poised to re-rate, National Bank’s Baltej Sidhu raised his Hammond Power Solutions Inc. (HPS.A-T) target to $325 from $235 with an “outperform” rating. Other changes include: Canaccord Genuity’s Matthew Lee to $348 from $226 with a “buy” rating, ATB Cormark’s Nicholas Boychuk to $350 from $250 with an “outperform” rating and RBC’s Nelson Ng to $350 from $250 with an “outperform” rating The average is $237.
“Hammond delivered very strong Q1/26 results, exceeding our and consensus expectations. Although backlog growth was modest during the quarter, management is still seeing significant quotation activity. We believe that when management firms up plans later this year to add manufacturing capacity, we could see some large datacenter contracts added to the backlog. We are raising our PT to $350/share (from $250/share) to reflect 18.5 times (previously 15 times) our 2027 EBITDA forecast, which continues to be a discount to peers that have appreciated by 2-3 times EBITDA over the past month and currently trade at 20-21 times,” said Mr. Ng.
* Scotia’s Mike Rizvanovic dropped his target for iA Financial Corporation Inc. (IAG-T) to $168 from $183 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $180.
“IAG’s stock was oversold, in our view, following what we viewed as a relatively in line Q1 result as we suspect investors were a bit disappointed with the mixed performance across the lifeco’s key segments; the sizable gap between reported and core EPS, which resulted in a sequential decline in BVPS; and a higher tax rate that will be a modest headwind to EPS growth. That overshadowed an increase in IAG’s buyback to 8% and continued strength in the seg fund business. We also believe the stock’s strong recovery since the post-Q4 selloff made for a difficult set-up, with investors needing to see a solid EPS beat this quarter to justify any further upside to the share price. We exit the quarter with no material change in our view on IAG as our EPS estimates are little-changed, while our PT falls on a lower BVPS,” said Mr. Rizvanovic.
* RBC’s Bart Dziarski cut his Intact Financial Corp. (IFC-T) target to $289 from $304 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $318.
“IFC’s Q1/26 results were in-line on a core basis with premium growth below expectations and a ‘disappointing’ loss in UK&I which we think investors will largely look through. We balance the strength of IFC ROE & excess capital with our tempered premium growth outlook due to elevated competition (e.g. 4pt impact from losing large account in Canada Personal Property). Despite IFC now trading below its 5-year average valuation (both on P/B & P/E), current valuation is fair,” said Mr. Dziarski.
* Mr. Dziarski raised his Sprott Inc. (SII-T) target to $230 from $218 with an “outperform” rating. Other changes include: TD’s Graham Ryding to $205 from $190 with a “hold” rating and Canaccord Genuity’s Matthew Lee to $230 from $200 with a “buy” rating The average is $202.
“Momentum continues across Sprott’s business lines, highlighting embedded operating leverage to constructive commodity pricing compounded by net inflows accentuated by adjusted EBITDA margin reaching 72 per cent,” Mr. Dziarski said.
* TD Cowen’s Aaron MacNeil reduced his Keyera Corp. (KEY-T) target to $60 from $62 with a “buy” rating. The average is $55.78.
“We view recent share price weakness tied to Tribunal uncertainty as a buying opportunity, with our confidence improving as more information has emerged. With a conservative base case that assumes a future divestiture of Plains Fort Saskatchewan, we see downside potential as now more clearly bounded and the shares as still compelling at current valuations,” said Mr. MacNeil.
* In response to guidance that disappointed investors, Stifel’s Martin Landry reduced his target for Kits Eyecare Ltd. (KITS-T) to $21 from $24 with a “buy” rating. Other changes include: Canaccord Genuity’s Luke Hannan to $22 from $23 with a “buy” rating, ATB Cormark’s Kyle McPhee to $16.75 from $20 with a “speculative buy” rating and Desjardins Securities’ Frederic Tremblay to $23 from $25 with a “buy” rating. The average is $25.
“We believe that Q2/26 guidance is embedding a certain level of conservatism as growth prospects don’t appear to have changed given management still expects 2026 revenues to grow 25-30 per cent year-over-year in constant currency,” said Mr. Landry. “The lower than expected Q2/26 guidance was quickly reflected by investors who sent the shares down 13 per cent on [Wednesday]. We reduce our forecasts to reflect the Q2/26 guidance, which brings our target price down $3.00 to $21.00. Our thesis remains unchanged and predicated on KITS growing revenues and profitability at one of the fastest paces amongst the Canadian small-cap consumer sector.”
* TD Cowen’s Brian Morrison bumped his target for Linamar Corp. (LNR-T) to $119 from $116 with a “buy” rating. Other changes include: Raymond James’ Michael Glen to $100 from $90 with a “market perform” rating and Scotia’s Jonathan Goldman to $99 from $96 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $103.50.
“Linamar delivered another impressive operating performance,” said Mr. Goldman. “In Mobility, the company is winning share reflected in another quarter of double-digit CPV growth while margins remain best-in-class. In Industrial, the company also notched share gains in Ag and Skyjack, where volume was up 66 per cent year-over-year including strong data center uptake. The balance sheet is under-levered at 0.6 times pro forma recent acquisitions and the company continues to deploy capital to accretive M&A and buybacks. There was lengthy commentary on S232, but in the end, the company did not quantify potential incremental impact to Industrial. While more than 90 per cent of sales are not impacted by tariffs, inclusive of S232 changes, that still leaves less than $1-billion of exposure. Recall, the new tariff regime applies a 25-per-cent tariff to the entire value of the unit whereas it was previously only 50 per cent of the steel and aluminum content only, which is worth much less. The company maintained its outlook for sales and earnings “growth” this year, but that leaves a wide berth. Revenue guidance was raised to ‘DD% growth’ (from ‘growth’) but adjusted net income margin guidance was lowered to “modest contraction” (from expansion). That makes it difficult to ring-fence downside scenarios.
“We raised our 2026E/2027E by 1.5 per cent/1.5 per cent to reflect 1Q actuals, 2Q guidance, and higher revenue growth assumptions in Industrial. We left our valuation multiple unchanged, but that is just a place-holder as the tariff uncertainty deserves a risk premium, in our view. We have already seen another company in our universe be blindsided by incremental tariffs where the unmitigated impact to earnings was severe. Besides a narrow return to target, it is difficult to get more constructive without better visibility.”
* Scotia’s John Zamparo lowered his Loblaw Companies Ltd. (L-T) target to $64 from $70 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $71.86.
“We are surprised at the magnitude of today’s reaction to what we expected would likely be a slightly lower-growth year. We’ve seen this dynamic across the grocers of late, and though this quarter had strengths (Rx SSS, food SSS, SG&A discipline), there was enough (front-end SSS, GM%) to have investors now worry more about valuation. A tailwind remains later this year and early next in the form of generic GLP-1s, where we feel that L is the clear winner. However, we expect lower overall earnings growth this year than investors have been accustomed to,” said Mr. Zamparo.
* Ahead of its first-quarter release, RBC’s Irene Nattel lowered her Pet Valu Holdings Ltd. (PET-T) target to $27, below the $31.71 average, from $33 with an “outperform” rating.
“While visibility of financial forecasts is likely to remain a bit clouded until consumer spending stabilizes, in our view, PET has the infrastructure, systems, and commercial strategies in place to effectively navigate the current environment with opportunity to gain share from marginal operators. We reiterate our view that the combination of commercial initiatives to enhance relative value proposition/positioning, completion of DC investments in Q3/2025, attractive FCF with resumption of NCIB in 2026, and sector-leading ROIC more than 20 per cent, should help stabilize the earnings profile and help valuation find it footing,” said Ms. Nattel.
* National Bank’s Dan Payne raised his Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. (SOIL-T) to $8 from $7.50 with a “sector perform” rating. Other changes include: Canaccord Genuity’s Mike Mueller to $7.50 from $7 with a “buy” rating and ATB Cormark’s Amir Arif to $8.50 from $7 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $5.49.
“A strong quarter from the company, while the agility of its position has it in good form to continue capitalizing and compounding the prevailing strong commodity market in support of magnified shareholder returns to come. SOIL is poised for a 44-per-cent return profile (vs. peers 19 per cent) on a leverage of 0.4 times (vs. peers negative 0.1 times), while trading at 2.5 times 2027 estimated EV/DACF (vs. peers 4.0 times). Our increased target price is attributed to that same target multiple applied to improving net results,” said Mr. Payne.
* ATB Cormark’s Sairam Srinivas raised his target for Sienna Senior Living Inc. (SIA-T) to $26 from $25 with an “outperform” rating. Other changes include: TD’s Jonathan Kelcher to $27 from $26 with a “buy” rating, Canaccord Genuity’s Mark Rothschild to $27.50 from $26 with a “buy” rating and Scotia’s Himanshu Gupta to $26 from $25 with a “sector outperform” rating. The average is $25.69.
“Q1 was another strong quarter from SIA, with OFFO/sh of $0.36 (excluding one-time items), ahead of our forecast and consensus of $0.34/sh. The beat was driven by a positive tax recovery. This quarter marked a strong start for Sienna as it comps successive strong quarters from 2025. A key driver of SIA’s performance has been vacancy gains in the retirement segment. Having hit the 95-per-cent target in Q4 last year, SIA should be able to leverage the vacancy recovery tailwind for two more quarters. In the LTC segment, we view funding increases and potential base rate increases to drive SIA towards the high end of its growth targets,” said Mr. Srinivas.
* RBC’s James McGarragle cut his Stella-Jones Inc. (SJ-T) target to $85 from $93 with a “sector perform” rating. Other changes include: Raymond James’ Christian Reiter to $95 from $100 with an “outperform” rating and Desjardins Securities’ Benoit Poirier to $104 from $107 with a “buy” rating. The average is $98.60.
“Updates from Q1 were mixed in our view. We came away more positive on the volume outlook, and see upside to mid-single-digit volume trends this year. That said, we are cautious on the pole pricing outlook given commentary that the spot market is competitive, with new capacity coming online later this year likely to make that situation worse. Net-net we continue to see Stella as exposed to favourable infrastructure spending trends longer-term, although see this as appropriately reflected in valuation, with the shares yielding less than 5 per cent on FCF on our 2026E and 2027,” said Mr. McGarragle.
* TD Cowen’s Menno Hulshof increased his Strathcona Resources Ltd. (SCR-T) target to $49 from $47, exceeding the $44.80 average, with a “buy” rating.
“Growth outlook compelling through 2031 (10-per-cent CAGR) and beyond (another 100 mbbl/d),” said Mr. Hulshof. “1Q a bit soft with production of 116 mboe/d and an FFOPS miss vs. consensus. 2026 guidance unchanged with 2H to capture Meota ramp and Cold Lake (Lindbergh) recovery. Costs higher q/q but netbacks up regardless on higher pricing. FCF allocation remains tilted to growth over RoC (no 1Q buybacks).”
* National Bank’s Gabriel Dechaine reduced his Sun Life Financial Inc. (SLF-T) target by $1 to $108 with an “outperform” rating, while TD Cowen’s Mario Mendonca increased his target to $107 from $102 with a “buy” rating. The average is $101.
“SLF beat our estimate on stronger U.S. and Asian results. In the US, experience losses dropped to only nil (forecast: US$25-million) and the dental loss ratio improved to 87.2 per cent, below SLF’s target. Pricing actions and reserving point to better US results in 2026. While MFS margins remain healthy, outflows remain elevated. Asia sales and earnings remain healthy,” said Mr. Mendonca.
* National Bank’s Travis Wood lowered his Street-high target for Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET-T) to $27 from $30 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $18.14.
“In Canada, VET continues to underscore strong results unlocked by efficiencies that the team continues to identify and harvest, following the portfolio repositioning over recent quarters and a consistent drilling program,” said Mr. Wood. “Both Deep Basin and Montney assets are delivering strong results, with management highlighting further DCET cost reductions from Montney wells and recently brought‑on‑production Deep Basin wells ranking among the most prolific in the area during the last quarter, providing confidence in achieving production targets throughout the year. We maintain our Outperform rating; however, we are revising our target price to $27 (down from $30) as a result of changes to our cash flow estimates.“