Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
RBC Dominion Securities analyst Sabahat Khan expects Toromont Industries Ltd.’s (TIH-T) late Wednesday announcement that its Power Systems business has received confirmation of firm orders for $1-billion to be “received well” by investors and led him to raised his revenue and earnings expectations for both 2026 and 2027.
“The magnitude of these orders is a notable positive as it solidifies the medium- to long-term outlook for the Power Systems business (including the AVL platform), in our view. Our recent investor discussions on TIH have been focused on potential drivers of upside from current levels (given the strong share price and valuation runup), with improved revenue/earnings growth at AVL and potential capacity expansions being viewed as likely catalysts (both of which were reflected in today’s release). For Q1, TIH reported Power Systems (incl. AVL) bookings growth of 231 per cent year-over-year (we believe AVL represented a sizable portion of the $770-million Power Systems backlog within Equipment Group).”
Mr. Khan also emphasized the Toronto-based company is currently “evaluating additional efficiencies at two existing facilities (likely referring to the Hamilton and Charlotte AVL facilities), and acquiring land for a new (third) facility in Hamilton. ”
“The company exited Q1/26 with a record total backlog of $1.7-billion, with Equipment Group at $1.4-billion (up 39.7 per cent year-over-year, up 15.6 per cent sequentially), of which Power Systems was $770-million (56 per cent of Equipment Group),” he added. “Recall TIH acquired a 60-per-cent ownership stake in AVL in Feb. 2025 (for approximately $80-million), and at Q1/26 reporting, the company announced it had increased its ownership position to 80 per cent ($71-million paid for the incremental 20 per cent).”
“At the RBC Canadian Industrials Conference in May, management noted that the original Hamilton facility is running at full capacity while the Charlotte facility exited Q1/26 near 50-per-cent utilization. In Q2/25, TIH acquired the North Carolina facility for $60-million, with production to ramp throughout 2026. The company is acquiring land for a new facility in the Hamilton area (likely to require higher capex and potentially longer timeline vs. the Charlotte facility).”
With his higher forecast, Mr. Khan increased his target for Toromont shares to $256 from $234, keeping an “outperform” rating. The average on the Street is $224, according to LSEG data.
“We are taking an initial cut at estimate revisions given that today’s announcement is certainly additive to revenue/earnings, though many details are to be clarified. At Q2/26 reporting (likely the next time management will speak to the Street), we will be looking for details on: capex/timelines for a new AVL facility and expansions at existing facilities, mix of power-gen vs. AVL reflected in the $1-billion of new orders, cadence of deliveries across late-2026 and 2027, any notable ramp-up/other inefficiencies that may be relevant, etc.,” he concluded.
Elsewhere, Raymond James’ Steve Hansen upgraded Toromont to “outperform” from “market perform” and hiked his target to $235 from $190.
“[Yesterday’s business update] reinforced our conviction in the durability of the firm’s Power Systems (including AVL) growth outlook,” said Mr. Hansen. “Specifically, management announced that its Power Systems division has accumulated $1.0-billion in firm orders, with deliveries expected substantially throughout 2027. With capacity at AVL’s new Charlotte facility already now committed, incremental capacity will be required to facilitate this level of demand. As such, management is reportedly now evaluating: 1) further efficiency initiatives; and 2) options to acquire additional land and build a new facility in Hamilton, ON (no size/specs provided). Taken together, we believe this update further validates the durability of AVL’s data centre-driven growth opportunity and augments TIH’s long-term earnings visibility. We have increased our estimates and target price accordingly.”
With shares of BlackBerry Ltd.’s (BB-N, BB-T) having “materially” re-rated upwards towards multi-year highs on enthusiasm for General Embedded Market segment, RBC Dominion Securities analyst Paul Treiber thinks the Waterloo, Ont.-based now needs to show an inflection in growth and more details on GEM “momentum and opportunity” for the re-valuation to be sustained.
“Since Q4 results, BlackBerry’s shares have rallied 131 per cent, with valuation increasing from 3.5 times NTM EV/S [next 12-month enterprise value to sales] to 8.7 times,” he said. “On a sum-of-the-parts basis, we estimate QNX’s implied valuation has increased from 5.2 times NTM EV/S to 15 times. We believe the re-rating reflects market enthusiasm for QNX’s GEM (i.e., physical AI) opportunity. The $3.1-billion increase in BlackBerry’s market cap compares against $60-million NTM GEM revenue and $2.7-billion industrial robotics TAM [total addressable market] BlackBerry disclosed at CES, effectively implying a valuation of 52 times sales and 1.2 times TAM for this segment. In comparison, Aptiv acquired peer Wind River (VxWorks) for 9 times sales in 2022.”
For its first-quarter fiscal 2027 results, which are scheduled to be released on June 25, Mr. Treiber expects results to be “healthy” and come in towards the high-end of its guidance and largely falling in line with the Street’s expectations. That includes revenue rising 13 per cent year-over-year to US$138-million and adjusted EBITDA jumping 29 per cent to US$21-million.
“Given likely healthy Q1 results, we believe BlackBerry may increase the low-end of FY27 guidance ranges, which are currently $584-611-million revenue (6-11 per cent year-over-year) and $110-130-million adj. EBITDA (3-21 per cent year-over-year),” he said.
“We believe greater investor visibility to GEM’s revenue, growth, backlog and backlog conversion is needed to help sustain BlackBerry’s valuation re-rating. BlackBerry has previously disclosed that GEM accounts for 20 per cent of QNX revenue, which implies GEM revenue has averaged low-to-mid teens revenue growth over the last year. FY27 guidance calls for QNX revenue up 8-15 per cent year-over-year; GEM is likely growing faster than overall QNX revenue. While QNX backlog increased 10 per cent year-over-year last year, backlog related to GEM is likely growing at a faster rate.”
Mr. Treiber reaffirmed his “sector perform” rating and US$4.50 target for BlackBerry shares. The average is US$5.98.
“Maintain Sector Perform, which reflects our view that a sustained upward valuation re-rating requires evidence of accelerating top-line growth. With valuation at the high-end of BlackBerry’s 5-year historical range and at a 77-per-cent premium to Auto Tech peers, risk-reward on the stock has declined, in our view,” he explained.
Acumen Capital analyst Trevor Reynolds thinks Mullen Group Ltd.’s (MTL-T) management remains “highly optimistic” on the current market outlook for its Specialized & Industrial Services (S&I), pointing to “the size and scope of development currently being evaluated including the Alaska Pipeline/LNG project and Canadian Nation Building Projects.”
“As a reminder, MTL is in the final round of bidding for pipeline hauling work on the $60-billion (CAD) Alaska Pipeline/LNG project that is expected to see an FID near term,” he said. MTL highlights that they are very well positioned to win a portion of the work given their expertise in similar operating conditions. Notably, a successful bid would result in an immediate investment in new trucks (150-200 units) for their part of the project that is expected to last 2-3 years and would be high margin and provide strong cashflow.
“Canadian Nation Building Projects. Timing and approvals remain uncertain, but MTL remains highly optimistic that a number of significant ‘nation building projects’ will move forward in Canada over the coming years creating significant tailwinds for the S&I division.”
In response to a recent management update, Mr. Reynolds made “minor” adjustments to his forecast for the Okotoks, Alta.-based company, leading him to raise his target for its shares to $25 from $22 with a “buy” rating. The average is $21.67.
“While MTL is not positioned to replicate peak revenue today, there is clearly significant potential upside for S&I assuming any number of the previously discussed projects receive positive FID,” he said. “Outside of S&I the business outlook is stable today but is likely to see positive tailwinds with increased economic activity if/when major project developments progress. Our focus near term remains on news flow around the Alaska Pipeline and Nation Building Projects in Canada.”
National Bank Financial analyst Dan Payne thinks “the pathway to value” for Enerflex Ltd. (EFX-T) “remains strong with the goal to meaningfully scale its returns through a disciplined approach to capital allocation in support of high-graded returns.”
“Bottom line, high-single digit top line and low-double digit earnings growth as a foundation is enough to make the stock attractive (approximately $55-60 per share), while multiplicative potential of new business (power/data centres) is entirely option-value for management (and investors) to chase as meaningful upside,” he added.
Mr. Payne said he came away from recent marketing meetings with the Calgary-based manufacturer of natural gas compression equipment with “increased visibility towards its foundational value proposition AND unique option-value,” pointing to three factors:
* “High-quality foundational earnings“
Analyst: ”Earnings have been significantly validated through consecutive beats, and with meaningful cash conversion (including recent working capital harvest), have manifested material FCF in support of ongoing de-leveraging; ultimately the existing business supports $150-million in annualized net FCF as the base of its value."
* Opportunities for its core business.
Analyst: “The natural gas macro thematic remains strong (with EFX potentially one of the best ways to play it, given little price exposure), where supply continues to expand in support of structural demand opportunities (LNG & Power, principally). With that, it expects to orient its improved cost of (and access to) capital towards strategic investments in the natural gas arena (again, modular solutions throughout).”
* “Meaningful option-value and upside“
Analyst: ”Increasingly evident is the value opportunity of complementing the core, notably through the emerging opportunity in power (data centres), but also through other fundamental tailwinds (like, mix and tuck-ins)."
Mr. Payne reaffirmed his “outperform” rating and $42.50 target for Eneflex shares. The average on the Street is $45.74
TD Cowen analyst Michael Tupholme thinks AtkinsRéalis Group Inc. (ATRL-T) offers ”an attractive nuclear thematic story with an asymmetric risk/reward set-up."
“We believe the market underappreciates ATRL’s nuclear new build opportunity (Ontario lagrescale new builds alone represent $38-billion revenue opportunity vs. its Nuclear backlog of $4.5-billion), partly driven by perceived first-of-a-kind (FOAK) risk around ATRL’s CANDU MONARK nuclear reactor technology,” he explained.
“However, we argue that the MONARK is essentially an uprate of existing CANDU reactors vs. a typical FOAK design, as it is based on the proven Darlington reactor core (built and refurbished multiple times), reducing cost/technology uncertainty. Our Nuclear DCF suggests that at ATRL’s current price, the market is assuming near-zero incremental CANDU new builds (seen as overly conservative and unlikely).”
In a client report, Mr. Tupholme named the Montreal-based company one of the firm’s top small-to-mid cap (SMID) stock picks for 2026, emphasizing its core Nuclear and Engineering Services Regions (ESR) segments are “well positioned to realize attractive organic revenue growth over the medium to long term.”
“We see a gradual margin improvement opportunity in ESR (68 per cent of overall 2025 revenue),” he explained. “ATRL also has considerable capital allocation flexibility (net cash position at end of Q1/26), supporting its ability to repurchase shares (has been active) and execute accretive ESR acquisitions.”
The analyst has a “buy” rating and $117 target for AtkinsRéalis shares. The average is $114.11.
“We believe an Ontario nuclear technology decision in H2/26 could be a key re-rating catalyst for ATRL’s Nuclear segment (we see over 20-per-cent upside potential for ATRL shares on a re-rating),” he noted. “Further, we see strong execution in ATRL’s ESR segment (i.e., healthy organic growth and margin gains) as supportive of expansion in ATRL’s valuation.”
In other analyst actions:
* Barclays’ Adrienne Yih lowered her target for shares of retailer Groupe Dynamite Inc. (GRGD-T) to $79 from $118, keeping an “overweight” rating. The average is $85.10.
* Stifel’s Cole McGill moved his Meridian Mining PLC (MNO-T) to $3.25 from $3, which is the current average, and reiterated a “buy” rating.
“We toured MNO’s Cabaçal’s Project, coming away enthused about the forward pace of development with the project alongside a stronger understanding of it’s economics, value drivers and regional upside [today’s 7.2m @ 2.51g/t AuEq in an interpreted new horizon at Santa Helena],” he said.
* ATB Cormark’s David McFadgen, who is the lone analyst covering Toronto-based wireless connectivity provider TeraGo Inc. (TGO-T), bumped his target to $1.25 from 80 cents with a “sector perform” rating.
“ISED’s May 14, 2026, decision to repurpose the 26 GHz and 38 GHz bands to flexible use satisfies a long-term catalyst for TGO, but the framework introduces notable risks. Risks include a shift to Tier 5 boundaries, 100 MHz block round-downs, and shorter 10-year licence terms, which pose near-term CAPEX and deployment hurdles. Additionally, upcoming spectrum auctions threaten to dilute asset value, with opening bids sitting well below TGO’s market-implied spectrum valuation. We reiterate our Sector Perform rating. We admit that we’ve taken a while to respond to this decision, but we needed to review it with the company and review the necessary documents,” said Mr. McFadgen.