Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
National Bank Financial analyst Cameron Doerksen thinks the outlook for Exchange Income Corp. (EIF-T) “remains constructive” ahead of the release of its second-quarter results next month, seeing it enjoying “solid” growth with “multiple growth drivers in the coming years.”
He expects the Winnipeg-based company to reach the high end of management’s 2026 guidance for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of $825-$875-million, a notable increase from $754-million in 2025. For the second quarter, he’s projecting $217-million, in line with the Street’s forecast.
“As the largest aviation provider into Canada’s North and other remote areas, EIC is ideally positioned to see growth from Canada’s investment in defence and other infrastructure in the North,” he said. “In late June, the Canadian government initiated the process to list two major projects in the North (Mackenzie Valley Highway and the Grays Bay Road and Port) as projects of national interest. If these construction projects move forward, they would drive increased aviation activity in the North.
“Although EIC’s PAL Aerospace subsidiary was unsuccessful in its bid to win a large aerial surveillance contract in Australia, we still see the potential for new surveillance opportunities in Canada and globally. PAL is currently proposing to operate up to four Dash 8-400 maritime surveillance aircraft to cover Northern Canada, supplementing its existing maritime surveillance contract on the East and West Coasts. PAL recently firmed up a previously announced contract opportunity for the modification and in-service support of two Dash 8-200 for maritime surveillance aircraft for use by Air Greenland for Greenland maritime patrol.”
In a client note released before the bell, Mr. Doerksen said he also expects Exchange Income’s Manufacturing segment to “see more tailwinds.”
“Demand for composite matting in the company’s Spartan Mat subsidiary in the U.S. remains strong, and the company has started construction of a new plant which will be ready in H2/27,” he explained. “Demand for wooden mats in Canada has also strengthened with growth expected for the remainder of 2026 and into 2027. We see further mat demand if more “nation-building” projects (pipelines, power transmission projects) move forward in Canada (several large pipelines both to the West Coast and to Eastern Canada have recently been proposed). Finally, in reporting Q1 results, EIC management noted strong recent order activity for steel tanks at one of its U.S. businesses in the manufacturing segment driven by demand for data centre cooling systems.”
Seeing its valuation as “reasonable,” Mr. Doerksen raised his target for the company’s shares to $144 from $125, maintaining an “outperform” rating, after “minor” adjustments to his forecast. The average on the Street is $137.
“On our updated 2027 forecast, the stock trades at 10.1 times EV/EBITDA versus the stock’s historical forward average of 7.8 times, but still reasonable in the context of the strong contracted growth and the positive outlook across the company’s key end markets,” he said.
“We previously valued the stock by applying a 10.0 times EV/EBITDA multiple to our 2027 forecast. However, in the context of rising valuation multiples for peer group aerospace/aviation companies, and our growing confidence that EIC can sustain solid growth beyond 2027, we are increasing our valuation multiple to 11.0 times.”
Desjardins Securities analyst Benoit Poirier thinks improving macro and volume trends support a positive stance on Canadian railway companies ahead of the release of their second-quarter results.
“Overall, we are encouraged with the latest macro trends (U.S. industrial production trending upward, status quo around USMCA with C$ becoming a tailwind vs latest assumptions from management) and positive volume backdrop (CN’s RTMs [revenue ton miles] for 2Q are 360 basis points ahead of our forecast vs up 140 basis points for CP, with a constructive outlook for potash, coal and energy), which nicely position both railroads heading into 2Q26 reporting (particularly CN vs CP),” he said.
Mr. Poirier emphasized U.S. industrial production, which he calls a “historically a reliable leading indicator for freight carloads,” has been revised higher for both 2026 and 2027.
“After moving down to roughly 1.25 per cent year-over-year earlier in June, U.S. IP growth expectations for 2026 have recovered to about 1.5 per cent, while 2027 forecasts have also improved and now point to roughly 1.75-per-cent year-over-year growth,” he said. “This is encouraging for North American rails following a prolonged freight recession, as stronger industrial activity typically translates into firmer freight carload demand with a small lag. Overall, the improving IP outlook points to a more constructive demand backdrop into 2H26 and 2027.”
With that optimistic view, he is expecting “another positive grain surprise” for Canadian National Railway Co. (CNR-T), liking “the constructive energy set-up.”
“CN outperformed our 2Q expectations, with RTMs up 5.1 per cent year-to-date versus our 1.5-per-cent forecast, despite total carloads declining 0.5 per cent, reflecting a favourable mix shift toward heavier, long-haul grain,” said Mr. Poirier. “Grain was the key positive surprise, with carloads up 10.6 per cent quarter-to-date vs our 3.0-per-cent forecast, supported by delayed Prairie seeding following a record 2025 crop. CN’s medium-term energy set-up is increasingly constructive with the broader West Coast energy export infrastructure build-out. We increased our 2Q26 adjusted EPS FD estimate to $1.95 (from $1.91). For 2026, we now expect adjusted EPS FD growth of 3.2 per cent, up from 1.9 per cent.”
Keeping his “buy” rating for CN shares, he raised his target to $185 from $163. The average is $170.
For rival Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (CP-T), Mr. Poirier sees it also “benefiting from grain, but EPS consensus seems already at the right place.”
“CP also outperformed our 2Q volume expectations, with RTMs up 3.7 per cent quarter-to-date vs our 2.3-per-cent estimate, driven primarily by grain strength,” he said. “Grain carloads are up 17.7 per cent quarter-to-date vs our 13.0-per-cent forecast, benefiting from the same delayed-seeding pull-forward as CN. However, coal has disappointed (carloads down 20.8 per cent quarter-to-date) as a key mine went through production issues, while potash was also weaker than expected. That said, our 2Q26 adjusted EPS FD estimate is unchanged at $1.23.”
Maintaining his “buy” rating, he raised his target for CP shares to $141 from $131. The average is $135.77.
“Our revised multiples are closer to their fiveyear averages, which is justified in light of the improved macro and encouraging volume backdrop,” he noted.
Citi analyst Ariel Rosa sees a “favourable setup” for second-quarter results for North American transportation companies, but he warns upside may be “modest.”
“Transports 2Q earnings are likely to be among the strongest in years, as companies benefit from significantly tighter capacity conditions coupled with moderately improving demand,” he said. “We expect solid year-over-year EPS gains reflecting higher truckload rates and margin recovery with robust outlooks signaling continued strength over the coming quarters.
“Last month we downgraded a number of trucking stocks given extended valuations, as we felt the improved supply-demand backdrop was well-understood (and largely priced-in) by investors. However, given the pull-back in shares of recent weeks, we move KNX and SAIA back to Buy and ODFL to Neutral, as our price targets (largely unchanged) now imply sufficient upside to support our ratings changes. We remain concerned on valuations across much of our coverage, with upside to shares likely to be far more modest in 2H26 relative to 1H, but acknowledge it is difficult to remain negative into rising earnings.”
Noting the S&P 500 is up 9 per cent year-to-date and the Transports (TRAN) Index up 25 per cent, Mr. Rosa thinks “upside in 2H is likely to be modest as rising earnings will likely be offset by PE multiple compression (note we have trimmed our target PEs across much of our coverage).”
“Against extended valuations, the next stage of the rally is likely to be marked by dispersion in performance between management teams that can capitalize on higher rates to drive margin improvement and EPS growth without corresponding challenges (inflationary cost pressures, service failures) that typically accompany a tighter supply-demand environment,” he added. “We have become increasingly attentive to the risk of such issues limiting companies’ ability to capture volume and price upside (as happened for rails in ’21-’22). Whereas we find valuations for companies like ODFL and JBHT challenging to defend, we see how their track records of sustaining service through cycles make them appealing to investors. Alternatively, names with more perceived upside carry risk of service failure and share loss despite cycle torque.”
The analyst made a series of target price adjustments across his coverage universe, including lowering his TFI International Inc. (TFII-N/TFII-T, “buy”) target to US$182 from US$188 based on “continued macro and geopolitical uncertainty.” The average is US$165.58.
“We see runway for TFII and continue to consider it a well-managed, diversified transports company that generates strong FCF but trades at a discount to peers,” said Mr. Rosa. “Outsized Flatbed trucking rate inflection (in-part driven by strong data center buildout) is expected to drive strong EPS in 2Q26 and beyond given the company’s Flatbed exposure, while its U.S. Less-than-Truckload business is positioned to perform on turnaround execution.
“The company noted it was renewing its U.S. flatbed rates in the high-single to low-double-digit range in early 2Q and we anticipate that to have stepped up throughout the quarter. We note it has 25-per-cent spot exposure in U.S. flatbed, while its Canada-based flatbed was not yet seeing strong renewals, with those being at low-single-digits in early 2Q. Given the strength in LTL mid-quarter updates and shift in some TL freight back to LTL, we anticipate TFII’s LTL tonnage topotentially be up year-over-year, reversing its decline over the last several quarters. We see potential for TFII to come in near the better end of its 2Q OR improvement guide ranges.”
For railways, his changes are:
- Canadian National Railway Co. (CNI-N/CNR-T, “buy”) to US$141 from US$124. The average is $119.87.
- Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (CP-N/CP-T, “buy”) to US$106 from US$97. Average: US$95.86.
RBC Dominion Securities analyst Walter Spracklin sees “an improving volume backdrop” for Canadian trucking and diversified industrial companies during the second quarter.
“Cass freight shipments continued to rebound sequentially in Q2 and the RBC PMI Manufacturing index reached 52.9 in June, edging higher and for the sixth consecutive month above 50 — the most sustained expansion in several years," je sad. “We note, however, that the Canadian General Freight Index softened back into negative territory, consistent with the Canadian pricing narrative lagging the U.S. recovery where capacity exits are driving a more pronounced inflection.
“Our view is that current valuations across the group are beginning to reflect the improving industrial outlook, except at CJT. We therefore continue to flag CJT shares as a compelling long-term opportunity given its eCommerce-driven growth exposure, which positions it well for significant operating leverage as volumes rebound. Furthermore, U.S. truck pricing continues to move higher on the back of meaningful capacity exits, while Canadian pricing remains softer, reflecting a less advanced tightening cycle. That said, we could see supply conditions in Canada firm as T4A requirements make it harder for carriers to undercut on price.”
In a client report released before the bell, Mr. Spracklin also emphasized Canadian PMI readings are “trending at or above 50 each month to start the year pointing to a potential rebound, consistent with commentary from other Industrials that they are seeing a nice pick-up in activity in recent months.”
“We therefore have increasing confidence in our base-case assumption for a modest recovery in H2, although this is starting to be reflected in valuation at both MTL and TFII in our view,” he added. “Our Q2 estimates are unchanged (but with positive upward bias) into quarter, except at SJ, which we took down reflecting lower expected pole and tie revenue growth.”
The analyst made these target adjustments:
* Mullen Group Ltd. (MTL-T, “outperform”) to $23 from $21. The average is $21.89.
Analyst: “Our Q2 EBITDA estimate remains at $93-million, in line with consensus $95-million. Our 2026 EBITDA estimate is unchanged at $365-million, a touch ahead of consensus $362-million, and in line with guidance for EBITDA of $365-million. Looking ahead, we expect recent PMI readings and potential infrastructure investment to favourably affect demand and sentiment in the shares, in addition to Alaska LNG demand. We therefore took higher our target multiple to 8 times (from 7.5 times) to reflect an improving outlook.”
* Westshore Terminals Investment Corp. (WTE-T, “outperform”) to $42 from $39. The average is $39.
Analyst: “Our Q2 EBITDA estimate remains unchanged at $36-million. Our 2026 throughput estimate remains at 26Mt, a touch above guidance for volumes of 25.5Mt. Key is that we have made changes to our long-term forecasts with this update: we increased our loading rate assumptions post 2027 and now assume 30Mt total long-term run-rate tonnage (up from 29Mt).”
Mr. Spracklin’s colleague James McGarragle reduced his target for shares of Stella-Jones Inc. (SJ-T) to $82 from $85, which is below the $94.80 average.
“Our Q2 EBITDA moves to $192-million (from $199-million), a touch below consensus $194-million, and our 2026E to $634-million (from $650-million), below consensus $639-million, reflecting lower expected pole and tie revenue growth, in addition to cost related to the tie restructuring. While we expect utility pole volume momentum to continue in 2026, we see the Tie outlook as uncertain and flag risk given aggressive behaviour from Stella’s main competitor. Target multiple remains at 9 times and when applied to our lower 2027E estimate results in our price target of $8,” he said.
Stifel analyst Martin Landry reduced his second-quarter 2026 revenue expectation for Maple Leaf Foods Inc. (MFI-T) by 3 per cent to reflect lower volumes, however he sees a “softer” result as “transitory” with further year-over-year gains to come.
“We expect revenues to increase by 3 per cent year-over-year to reach $1.034-billion, slightly lower than consensus estimates of $1.060-billion,” he explained. “We have reduced our growth rate by 300 basis points to reflect the cold and rainy spring which may have impacted volumes during the quarter. We also believe that pressure on volumes has continued into Q2/26 following the company’s price increases taken in February. Management alluded to volume pressure in the company’s Q1/26 earnings call.
“Expecting a slight EBITDA margin expansion. Our Q2/26 forecasts call for EBITDA to come in at $136-million, up 4 per cent year-over-year and slightly below consensus of $139-million. We have not changed our gross margin or SG&A expenses assumptions as a percentage of sales. Our EBITDA margin assumption of 13.1 per cent represents an increase of 10 basis points year-over-year. Given the strong gross margin results last year, we have kept our gross margin expansion muted at 5 basis points year-over-year. We have modeled a 20 basis points leverage on SG&A expenses as a percentage of sales from the company’s productivity initiatives and Fuel for Growth program.”
Despite the revenue adjustments, Mr. Landry continues to expect “strong” earnings per share growth with a projection of 42 cents, up 26 per cent year-over-year driven by lower interest expenses and a slightly lower tax rate.
“We believe that the expected softer revenue growth in Q2/26 is transitory and that Maple Leaf Foods’ H2/26 revenue growth will be more aligned with company guidance of mid-single digits,” he said.
“The Canadian consumer is under stress and facing an affordability crisis, which has been discussed by Canadian grocers recently in earnings calls. We also believe that the cold and rainy weather played a role, delaying the grilling season later into Q2 than usual. With more favorable weather recently, we expect H2/26 revenue growth to be more aligned with company guidance. In addition, we foresee improvements in consumer sentiment as discussed in our most recent survey on Canadians’ spending intentions.”
Reaffirming his projections for the second half of the year and 2027, Mr. Landry kept a “buy” rating and $36 target for Maple Leaf shares. The average target is $37.71.
“The spin-off of Canada Packers should improve MFI’s comparability with brand-led CPG companies. Maple Leaf’s potential EPS growth of 18-22 per cent is twice as fast as that of peers. Despite this faster growth rate, MFI’s shares trade in line with peers, which is not justified in our view and sets up a good potential for a valuation re-rating,” he said.
RBC Dominion Securities’ Head of Global Metals & Mining Research Josh Wolfson is expecting a “mixed” second-quarter earnings season for gold equities, pointing to “tough quarter-over-quarter comps on margin compression from both declining gold/silver prices and rising costs.”
“Consensus estimates outline reasonable operating targets, but may not yet fully reflect lower realized prices (RBC estimate down 8 per cent EPS, down 16 per cent FCF vs. street),” he added. “2Q reporting will feature an abnormal volume of corporate and project updates that could add to volatility. Despite these uncertainties, gold producers remain in a position of strength— largely net cash, returning record capital, still reaping near-record margins, and with better operating results guided in 2H.”
In a client report released early Thursday, Mr. Wolfson concluded the near-term outlook for gold investors is “glass half full/empty, depending on your framing.”
“We see a mixed reporting season ahead,” he said. The good: 2Q results represent a seasonally weaker operating period, although consensus estimates appear reasonable and better results are forecast in 2H; producers are meaningfully net cash, plus are generating high margins and FCF; management decision-making remains grounded and companies are continuing to return record volumes of capital; valuations are still reasonable at spot (Sr. producer P/NAV of 1.12 times, 2027 EV/EBITDA of 6.1x and FCF/EV of 7.0 per cent; royalties P/NAV of 1.65 times, EV/EBITDA of 17.4 times, and FCF/EV: 4.0 per cent).
“The bad: Consensus estimates are elevated and at risk of downward revisions; Margins are compressing on both rising costs and declining gold prices in 2Q, and potentially go-forward with rising inflationary pressures; momentum has clearly waned as generalist investors have reduced sector exposure, magnifying the impact of reactions where execution does not meet expectations; declining gold prices present less-predictable headwinds for earnings, most notably on provisional pricing and working capital outflows.”
Mr. Wolfson and colleague Harrison Reynolds made a series of target price adjustments across their coverage universe. Changes include:
- Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM-N/AEM-T, “sector perform”) to US$210 from US$230. The average is US$244.42.
- Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI-N/AGI-T, “outperform”) to US$42 from US$52. Average: US$53.85.
- Barrick Mining Corp. (B-N/ABX-T, “outperform”) to US$49 from US$51. Average: US$57.
- Franco-Nevada Corp. (FNV-N/FNV-T, “outperform”) to US$285 from US$295. Average: US$287.98.
- Kinross Gold Corp. (KGC-N/K-T, “outperform”) to US$39 from US$40. Average: US$43.71.
- Newmont Corp. (NEM-N, “outperform”) to US$135 from US$140. Average: US$142.51.
- Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM-N/WPM-T, “outperform”) to US$160 from US$165. Average: US$174.63.
In other analyst actions:
* BMO’s Ben Pham increased his Capital Power Corp. (CPX-T) target to $85 from $75 with an “outperform” rating. The average target on the Street is $85.36.
“CPX’s 250MW long-term contract with Meta to back a new 1GW DC in Alberta starting in H2/28 is a positive development relative to expectations,” he said. “It derisks a portion of CPX’s future cash flows (with contract pricing also likely more favorable than our current model), supports a rise in Alberta power prices as early as 2028, and could catalyze further DC announcements in Alberta.”
* Raymond James’ Michael Glen bumped his Diversified Royalty Corp. (DIV-T) target to $5 from $4.70 with an “outperform” rating to reflect the closing of its $57.5-million equity financing and full exercise of over-allotment option. The average is $5.65.
“This financing also follows the closing of the acquisition of the Mr. Lube and Tire franchiser business for $237-million. As we have discussed previously, we view the Mr. Lube transaction as very positive for DIV, but acknowledge that there remains some aspects of the deal where investors are still seeking some clarity. Most important with the deal is that up until now, investor participation in Mr. Lube’s growth has effectively been limited to annual SSSG. From here, DIV investors should benefit in total growth, which includes new store openings which Mr. Lube management referenced still has the potential to double,” said Mr. Glen.
* ATB Cormark’s Nate Heywood bumped his Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure Ltd. (TWM-T) target to $19, exceeding the $17.50 average, from $17 with a “sector perform” rating.
“On July 8, 2026, ATB Cormark Capital Markets hosted Jeremy Baines, CEO, and Ian Quartly, CFO, for a desk update,” he said. “TWM is demonstrating significant operational momentum, driven by a highly confident $190–$210-million consolidated EBITDA guidance range with near-term upside from a high-certainty Ram River plant restart and supportive refining crack spreads beyond recent structural improvements in the Renewable Fuels business. EBITDA growth and FCF generation are materially improving the current leverage profile, with Management expecting to see leverage fall toward less than 2 times by YE2026 and further compression in 2027. Backed by structural macro tailwinds and $40–$50-million in potential non-core asset sales in FY2026, Management is looking to aggressively generate free cash flow and accumulate dry powder ahead of a potential 2026 FID on its shovel-ready, $1-billion-plus SAF project (5.5-6.5 times EV/EBITDA). With this update, we have also increased our near-term estimates to capture current macro fundamentals and are increasing our price target.”
* Ventum Capital Markets’ Taylor Combaluzier initiated coverage of Trident Resources Corp. (ROCK-X) with a “buy” rating and $7.30 target. The average is $7.48.
“Trident controls one of the largest land positions in Saskatchewan’s La Ronge Gold Belt and has an established 2.0 million ounce gold resource base. With a fully funded +20,000 m drill program underway, the Company is positioned to advance resource growth and generate multiple exploration catalysts.”
* In an earnings preview for North American waste services companies, Citi’s Bryan Burgmeier raised his target for Waste Connections Inc. (WCN-N, WCN-T) to US$182 from US$180 with a “neutral” rating. The average is US$201.16.
“For the first time this year, management teams will formally revisit ’26 guides and we see upside risk from higher recycled commodity prices and incremental M&A completed in 1H,” said Mr. Burgmeier. “We’re moving RSG to our top pick (previously WM) as EBITDA guidance could be raised on the 2Q call and we expect mgmt. remains confident in a 2H inflection for ES. Beyond commodities, we see potential upside to net price spreads as wage inflation remains benign (less than 1 per cent) but CPI could soon approach 4 per cent year-over-year, dragging yields higher. The group has outperformed recently (up 7.7 per cent over the last month) but still trails the S&P 500 year-to-date (up 6.4 per cent vs. up 9.3 per cent) and valuation is reasonable at 13.5 times ’27 EBITDA, in-line with the 5-yr avg.”
* Canaccord Genuity’s Tania Armstrong-Whitworth increased her target for WELL Health Technologies Corp. (WELL-T) to $7.75 from $6.50 with a “buy” rating. The average is $6.78.
“[Tuesday], WELL announced the proposed public listing of WELLSTAR on the TSX Venture through a reverse takeover (RTO), alongside a concurrent $50.0-million financing priced at $10.00 per subscription receipt. The financing is anchored by a large Canadian bank-owned asset manager and existing shareholders, with closing expected on or about July 29. Meanwhile, the RTO is expected to close on or about September 16, subject to customary approvals. Net proceeds are earmarked for acquisitions, AI innovation, and organic growth. They will remain in escrow until completion of the listing, at which time each subscription receipt will automatically convert into one WELLSTAR subordinate voting share (SVS). Should the transaction fail to close, investors will receive their subscription proceeds back,” she said.