Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Citi analyst Tyler Radke says he came away from Shopify Inc.’s (SHOP-Q, SHOP-T) first-quarter results “remaining positive on the company’s momentum and ability to drive continued share gains amidst agentic commerce tailwinds.”
“We view 2Q guidance as prudent and the pullback in shares as a buying opportunity, with key geography North America seeing accelerating growth,” he said in a client note. “The company continues to show momentum across upmarket merchant acquisition (GMV from merchants more than $100-million nearly doubling over two years), international (GMV up 45 per cent year-over-year to 16 per cent of total), and B2B momentum (up 80 per cent year-over-year).”
Despite that optimistic view, Mr. Radke was one of several analysts on the Street to reduce their expectations for the Ottawa-based e-commerce giant following Tuesday’s pre-market release, which sent its shares falling more than 15 per cent on Tuesday. Concerns centred on a forecast for slowing revenue and profit growth for the current quarter, overshadowing a beat on most analyst projections for the first three months of the year.
“Management’s outlook for gross profit growth year-over-year in the mid-twenties and a decrease in GAAP opex as a percentage of sales of down roughly 200 bps year-over-year were both slightly below our expectations and likely weigh on shares amidst continued momentum on the top line,” he said.
“Based on our analysis, we’re estimating 2Q gross margin around 47 per cent along with non-GAAP operating margin of 16 per cent. The company expects 2Q sales growth in the high-twenties year-over-year, which we see as reasonable given tougher comparisons to last year, and with similar strong execution, wouldn’t be surprised to see the company deliver top-line growth above 30 per cent next quarter. FCF margin appears likely to receive a roughly 0.5 percentage point tailwind from accounting changes related to merchant cash advances.”
While he applauded Shopify’s sales growth of 34 per cent year-over-year along with gross merchandise volume growth of 35 per cent, which led to a revenue beat, Mr. Radke cut his target for its shares to US$156 from US$163 after raising his operating expense expense expectations. The average target on the Street is US$161.26, according to LSEG data.
“We rate Shopify shares as Buy/High Risk (1H),” he noted. “Our confidence is underpinned by continued commerce share gains internationally, offline and upmarket. Our deep-dive analysis into SHOP’s Merchant Solutions business gives us confidence in SHOP’s long-term growth as we expect take-rate expansion to accelerate in 2025+, fueled by increasing payments penetration as well as new product/feature adoption.”
Elsewhere, other analysts making target revisions include:
* BMO’s Thanos Mochopoulos to US$145 from US$160 with an “outperform” rating.
“We remain Outperform on SHOP and have made minor changes to our model following Q1/26 results that were ahead of consensus, with Q2/26 guidance that was in line.While we believe the buyside had been hoping for a better guide, SHOP demonstratedstrong growth and sustained execution across a number of fronts, in our view. Thisprovides us with incremental confidence in our thesis and on the durability of SHOP’scompetitive position, particularly given its early leadership in agentic commerce,” he said.
* ATB Cormark’s Martin Toner to $240 (Canadian) from $250 with an “outperform” rating.
“Shopify’s focus on the AI era is becoming tangible, with AI-related usage now specifically contributing to cloud, infrastructure, and R&D costs. While decelerating revenue guidance and $581MM net loss create some noise, we continue to believe the core business remains well positioned to win in the AI era. Shopify expects revenue to grow at a high-twenties percentage rate; this represents a deceleration from the 34-per-cent growth achieved this quarter. With the market anticipating a sustained 30-per-cent-plus growth trajectory, this lower-than-expected guidance created downward pressure on the stock,” said Mr. Toner.
* Barclays’ Trevor Young to US$126 from US$130 with an “equal-weight” rating.
“Another 2-per-cent GMV, 10-per-cent OI beat, but bears might pick on the implied deceleration in rev growth. Lot to like from a fundamental, product perspective, but tough to underwrite meaningful multiple re-rate from here,” said Mr. Young.
* Citizens’ Andrew Boone to US$150 from US$160 with a “market outperform” rating.
“With strong results, but in line with expectations, we think the debate is what valuation multiple do you ascribe to Shopify, which is a best-in-class business with a $1-trillion-plus commerce TAM. We fundamentally like compounding businesses with little competition, but acknowledge the risks that AI expenses inflect with growing Sidekick usage. Offsetting this risk, we feel increasingly good about Shopify’s ability to sustain GMV growth around ~30% ex-FX while we note Plus price increases are ~one year away for Plus merchants that delayed price increases in 2024. Thus, we are reducing our price target to $150 from $160 as we move to an ~10x 2027 EV/revenue valuation multiple. We acknowledge the premium we are putting on this business but believe it is validated given Shopify’s best-in-class leadership team, TAM (which can sustain GMV growth), and adjacencies as the platform for enabling commerce,” said Mr. Boone.
* Piper Sandler’s James Callahan to US$150 from US$165 with an “overweight” rating.
* DA Davidson’s Gil Luria to US$140 from US$195 with a “buy” rating.
* Jefferies’ Samad Samana to US$140 from US$150 with a “hold” rating.
Citing an “improving” free cash flow outlook through the third quarter, “limited risks from elevated diesel prices relative to peers” and a “more compelling” valuation, National Bank Financial analyst Shane Nagle upgraded Ero Copper Corp. (ERO-T) to an “outperform” rating from “sector perform” following the release of in-line first-quarter results.
After the bell on Monday, the Vancouver-based company reported quarterly EBITDA of US$125.2-million, exceeding both Mr. Nagle’s US$108.0-million estimate and the Street’s US$124.8-million projection due primarily to higher sales volumes as well as lower corporate expenses. Adjusted earnings per share of 69 US cents also topped expectations (40 US cents and 60 US cents, respectively).
“Ero maintained 2026 copper guidance of 67,500–77,500 tons (NBCM: 72,500 tons),“ said Mr. Nagle. ”Consolidated C1 cash costs are expected to be between US$2.15-US$2.35/lb (NBCM: US$2.36/lb). The company remains somewhat insulated from ongoing inflationary pressures driven by unrest in the Middle East as diesel prices are set in Brazil by Petrobras. Ero sees a modest US$0.05-US$0.10/lb impact to costs partially offset by higher by-product credits for the year (accounted for in NBCM Estimates).
“Ero ended Q1/26 with US$91.2-million in cash, working capital of US$66.2-millionand US$542.7-million in long-term debt (ND/EBITDA of 1.0 times). The company has available liquidity of US$146.2-million, which includes US$55.0-million of undrawn amounts under its Senior Secured revolving credit facility. We model leverage decreasing to below 0.50 times by Q4/26 driven by additional gold concentrate sales from Xavantina and continued ramp-up of Tucumã.”
Following the results, Mr. Nagle sees Ero trading in line with peers and emphasized “the potential for positive FCF generation through Q2/Q3 aided by increased gold in concentrate sales.”
“With a strong balance sheet, the Company may be able to address our modelled declining production profile into 2029, ahead of potential development work at Furnas,” he added.
The analyst reaffirmed a $50 target for Ero shares. The average on the Street is $47.29.
“Ero shares are up 55 per cent since we downgraded to S/P on July 8 (down 25 per cent from our Q1 preview in mid-April), 2025, compared to TSX Base Metals Index up 64 per cent over the same period (down 8 per cent from mid-April),” he noted.
TD Cowen analyst Mario Mendonca downgraded his rating for iA Financial Corp. Inc. (IAG-T) following its first-quarter results, pointing to its valuation and seeing “better upside” in large-cap insurance companies.
“Core EPS was lower than expected reflecting experience losses and slightly higher share count,” he said. “Wealth Management momentum (earnings/flows & RF deal) remains strong, while US results were softer (experience losses were surprisingly high). ROE and capital flexibility remain solid. While this was a good quarter (raised div. by 11 per cent), we expected IAG to easily beat estimates after delivering a very weak Q4/25 result.”
After the bell on Tuesday, the Quebec City-based company reported core earnings per share for the quarter of $3.25, up 12 per cent year-over-year but below the estimate of both Mr. Mendonca ($3.28) and the Street ($3.26). He attributed the miss to “experience losses (above) and lower core non-insurance activities (higher expenses in CAD insurance), partially offset by good growth in S.T. insurance business (home/auto, dealer services).”
“Sales momentum was mixed: Canada individual & group insurance sales drop 2 per cent and were up 2 per cent, respectively (new business strain was elevated in group), while P&C sales grew 6 per cent year-over-year (unit growth and pricing),” said Mr. Mendonca. “Canadian and U.S. dealer services sales increased 7 per cent and were down 14 per cent year-over-year, respectively. U.S. dealer services sales were elevated in Q1/25 as demand was pulled forward. Auto sales should slow as tariffs affect newer inventories. US insurance sales remain strong, up 16 per cent year-over-year in US$. In WM, segregated funds net flows reached nearly $1.5-billion (record). Mutual funds net flows were modestly negative.”
“Earnings quality was weak. Reported earnings were 54 per cent lower than core earnings. Market-related items were significant ($87-million loss) reflecting equity (private & public) and infrastructure charges and other specified charges were $44-million (2025 tax item). Investment property charges were in line ($10-million vs forecast $10-million). We forecast investment property charges declining in ’26.”
Largely maintaining his forecast, Mr. Mendonca cut his target for IA shares to $190 from $193. The average is $179.83.
Elsewhere, National Bank’s Gabriel Dechaine, trimmed his target to $179 from $181 with a “sector perform” rating.
“We are slightly reducing our forecast to reflect the net of higher buybacks offset by lower non-insurance results and a higher tax rate,” said Mr. Dechaine.
Pointing to ”early-stage signs of improving crop price fundamentals “ and rising NPK prices, including ”recent fly-ups in Nitrogen & Phosphate stemming from the U.S.-Iran war, ”Raymond James analyst Steve Hansen upgraded Nutrien Ltd. (NTR-N, NTR-T) to “outperform” from “market perform” previously.
“After several years of surplus conditions, we see early signs of tightening in key crop markets, particularly corn,” he explained. “Specifically, U.S. stocks-to-use appear poised to compress toward 11 per cent (vs. 13 per cent last year), driven primarily by lower planted acreage (93-95 million, down 4-5 million year-over-year) and yield reversion following last year’s bumper crop. New biofuels policy support, skinnier NPK application rates, and weather-related risk (drought, El Nino) all provide incremental upside, in our view. While improving Latam supply (e.g., Argentina) will help offset this domestic tightening, we still durable upside—one of the most important fundamental drivers of NPK prices. Corn futures support this outlook, recently breaching $5.00/bu (Dec-26).
“Global NPK prices have risen sharply over the past 8 weeks, primarily reflecting supply disruptions tied to the US-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure. Derivative action by concerned governments (export controls, large tenders) have further exacerbated these price moves. Nitrogen & Phosphate (N&P) prices have proven the most sensitive to these supply shock, with approx. 32 per cent and 18 per cent of global supply originating from the Gulf region. While global supply chains are attempting to work around these constraints (i.e., U.S. exports), there are few easy solutions, in our view, suggesting the durability of these fly-ups are closely tied to the conflict’s duration. Potash dynamics remain more balanced given the conflict’s limited impact on global supply, although key benchmarks continue to press incrementally higher on standout affordability and higher logistics costs.”
Mr. Hansen raised his target for Nutrien shares to US$90 from US$74. The average is US$84.33.
Elsewhere, TD’s Michael Tupholme raised his target to US$86 from US$81 with a “buy” rating.
“Our Q1/26E EBITDA (up modestly) is slightly above consensus,” said Mr. Tupholme. “Middle East conflict impact (higher nitrogen/phosphate prices) not seen meaningfully affecting NTR’s results until Q2/26. Our Q2/26 estimated EBITDA moves up 8 per cent; H2/26 estimates also up but less so on assumed pricing normalization. Beyond short-term earnings uplift, we like NTR’s medium-term to long-term Retail & fertilizer sales volume growth prospects; valuation seen as reasonable.”
RBC Dominion Securities analyst Jimmy Shan saw the first-quarter results from Colliers International Group Inc. (CIGI-Q, CIGI-T) “as top-line strong but bottom-line wobbly” and warned its unchanged 2026 guidance relies significantly on a “strong” second half of the year.
“Given macro uncertainties and lingering AI impact overhang where one is ‘guilty until proven innocent’, CIGI’s price action today suggests that the market has no patience for wobbly quarters nor backend-loaded guidance,” he added. “That said, we continue to believe that for patient investors, CIGI offers good value even under our more conservative 2026 estimates at 13 times AEPS and 10.5 times AEBITDA.”
U.S.-listed shares of the Toronto-based commercial real estate services provider fell 5.6 per cent on Tuesday after it reported revenue of US$1.31-billion for the quarter, up 15 per cent year-over-year and above both the analyst’s US$1.27-billion estimate and the consensus of US$1.28-billion. Adjusted EBITDA of US$125-billion represented a gain of 8 per cent also topped expectations (US$121-million and US$120-million, respectively).
“Notably, Capital Markets and leasing revenue growth were robust and in fact, sector leading at up 47 per cent/11 per cent,” said Mr. Shan. “CIGI noted market share gains in the U.S., particularly strength in data centre development land and office, and strong U.S. industrial leasing. Engineering revenue was also strong at 18 per cent and overall top line growth was 16 per cent, on track to meet its mid-teen growth guidance for the year … but this did not flow through entirely to AEBITDA (up 8 per cent) and AEPS (up 5 per cent).
“Overall AEBITDA margin declined 67 basis points to 9.5 per cent, caused by: 1) CIGI has been investing in recruiting and IT investments to enable AI efficiencies within CRE, 2) Outsourcing had slower growth, 3) Lower utilization in residential development and telecom end markets in Engineering, 4) Higher than expected tax rate in Europe, 5) Integration under Harrison Street platform in IM, which has been well articulated in the past.”
Mr. Shan said the release, which included a reiteration of Colliers’ full-year guidance, was “largely neutral” to his forecast, and he sees its valuation remaining “attractive” on his “more conservative” estimates, which included reductions for both 2026 and 2027.
Reaffirming his “outperform” rating, he trimmed his target to US$155 from US$160. The average is US$159.54.
“Colliers’s business is advantaged by its globally recognized brand and its asset-light and high free cash flow generation, matched with its decentralized/partnership model and its small size relative to the acquisition opportunities that run across countries and diverse segments that service the CRE industry,” he noted. “Accordingly, we believe it is capable of compounding capital in the low- to mid-double-digit range over the long term.”
Elsewhere, BMO’s Stephen MacLeod cut his target to US$148 from US$180 with an “outperform” rating.
“We see attractive risk-reward in the stock for patient investors (8.3 times 2027E EV/EBITDA). The longterm fundamental growth outlook remains constructive, and we continue to believe that Colliers willbe a multi-year compounder of shareholder value,” said Mr. MacLeod.
Seeing its first-quarter results, updated 2026 guidance and another formal increase to its Duvernay acreage as a “positive” from an investing perspective, ATB Cormark Capital Markets analyst Patrick O’Rourke upgraded Spartan Delta Corp. (SDE-T) to “outperform” from “sector perform” previously.
After the bell on Tuesday, the Calgary-based company reported better-than-expected first-quarter production (52,140 barrels of oil equivalent per day versus Mr. O’Rourke’s estimate of 50,067 boe/d), which was a gain of 36 per cent year-over-year. Cash flow of 39 cents per share was a penny better than the analyst’s projection.
“Notably, SDE announced IP30s for its first two Willesden Green Duvernay wells that surpassed expectations, producing 1,930boe/d (59-per-cent liquids, 980bbl/d condensate), representing a significant stepout from prior results and de-risking significant future locations, and potential scope of the Duvernay asset beyond the previously suggested 50 mboe/d,” said Mr. O’Rourke. “Additionally, SDE’s first Pembina Duvernay well produced an IP30 rate of 630boe/ d (83-per-cent liquids; 470bbl/d oil); it should be noted that this well was drilled by a prior operator (and completed by SDE), had a portion of the lateral out of the zone and completed length of only 2,750 metres.
“Updated 2026 Guidance: Based on strong oil well performance, SDE updated its 2026 guidance to capitalize on sustained improvements in crude oil prices, increasing its 2026 capex guidance to $475-million-$525-million (from $410-million-$470-million; vs prior ATBs $435.2-million, consensus $455.0-million). This updated capex program is expected to deliver 2026 production guidance of 52.0-54.0mboe/d with 45-per-cent liquids (from 50.0-52.0mboe/d on 44-per-cent liquids). After Q1/26 capex spend that was slightly above estimates ($122.4-million vs ATBe $120.7-million, consensus $117.0-million), SDE outspent CF by $41-million, bringing net debt to $257.5-million (from $203.9-million quarter-over-quarter) as the Company continues its accelerated growth strategy that aims for 50.0mboe/d of near-term Duvernay production.”
The analyst hiked his target for Spartan shares to $17 from $13.25, citing strong operational results that continue to derisk our Duvernay type curve alongside the growing and delineating landbase that is putting upward pressure on the ultimate scope of the asset base." The average is $12.75.
Other changes include:
* National Bank’s Dan Payne to $16 from $15.50 with an “outperform” rating
“The company reported strong first quarter operating & financial results in line with expectations, including average production that continued to outpace expectations at 52.1 mboe/d (42-per-cent liquids) and associated CFPS of $0.39 (vs. consensus $0.40),” said Mr. Payne. “While gas prices remained weak through the period, it continues to backfill revenue with its liquids exposures that positively impacted realizations sequentially (up 10 per cent; oil & liquids revenue up 15-20 per cent quarter-over-quarter), and which in association with sound cash costs continued to deliver a solid cash netback of $17.34/boe (flat quarter-over-quarter) for the period. Those returns continued to fund its high-momentum program (volumes up 4 per cent quarter-over-quarter) within the context of its balance sheet (leverage exiting the period soundly at 0.8 times D/CF).”
* BMO’s Jeremy McCrea to $16 from $13.50. with an “outperform” rating.“Advancements in technology have shifted the economic landscape of Duvernay over the past decade,” said Mr. McCrea.
“This has drawn investor attention – especially into SDE, allowing the company to be one ofthe best performing stocks last year and year-to-date (up 87 per cent; vs. XEG: 45 per cent).“With Q1, momentum should continue with positive revisions to production (up 4 per cent); accelerated spending plans (up 14 per cent); additional Duvernay acreage (up 14 per cent to 815 sections) and two strong Duvernay well results from its newly acquired Willesden Green acreage (980 bbls/d condensate + 4.7 mmcf/d gas each).”
* Ventum Capital Markets’ Adam Gill to $15 from $14.50 with a “buy” rating.
“We see the guidance increase as a positive, given the production uptick is weighted towards higher-value oil/C5+ volumes. In addition, the Company received a sizeable increase to the credit facility on an off-cycle review, now with $700-million of capacity under a two-year revolving term, up from $450-million. While we believed that the Company was well-positioned with the $450-million capacity, the increase provides additional optionality,” said Mr. Gill.
* TD’s Aaron Bilkoski to $16 from $14 with a “buy” rating.
In other analyst actions:
* In response to a “strong start to FY26 as cost actions drive sustainable margin gains,” National Bank’s Baltej Sidhu raised his Ballard Power Systems Inc. (BLDP-Q, BLDP-T) target to US$4.75 from US$3.15 with a “sector perform” rating. Other changes include: BMO’s Ameet Thakkar to US$2.10 from US$1.70 with an “underperform” rating, ATB Cormark’s MacMurray Whale to US$4.30 from US$3.50 with a “sector perform” rating and Raymond James’ Michael Glen to US$4 from US$2.40 with a “market perform” rating.. The average target is US$3.09.
“BLDP is executing well, with growing traction across next-generation platforms positioning it to maintain leadership as adoption accelerates. The company will host a Capital Markets Day on October 22, 2026, which should provide further strategic detail,” said Mr. Sidhu.
* Desjardins Securities’ Bryce Adams increased his target for Cameco Corp. (CCO-T) to $190 from $185 with a “buy” rating. Other changes include: Scotia’s Orest Wowkodaw to $175 from $150 with a “sector outperform” rating and National Bank’s Mohamed Sidibé to $180 from $175 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $172.93.
“CO reported a 1Q26 earnings beat and reaffirmed its guidance ranges; the stock opened higher but gave back early gains and was weaker alongside other uranium/ nuclear peers. We continue to view Cameco as best positioned in the uranium/nuclear market to capture macro tailwinds. We note that overall, the uranium market is still below replacement rates for long-term contracting volumes, and we see upside potential in CCO shares as uranium demand outpaces supply while security of supply is a key factor for utilities,” said Mr. Adams.
* Following a first-quarter beat that “demonstrate resiliency,” National Bank’s Caneron Doerksen raised his Cargojet Inc. (CJT-T) target to $108 from $104 with an “outperform” rating. Other changes include: BMO’s Fadi Chamoun to $85 from $94 with a “market perform” rating and TD’s Tim James to $124 from $120 with a “buy” rating. The average is $118.15.
“Domestic air cargo demand remains steady for Cargojet, and while its more internationally-focused ACMI operations will continue to face end market-driven headwinds in the coming quarters, the company has successfully won new charter business as an offset demonstrating the resiliency of the business,” Mr. Doerksen said. “Although near-term catalysts are limited, valuation is attractive with the stock currently trading at 6.3 times EV/EBITDA based on our 2026 forecast, which is below the post-COVID (last three years) average of 7.6 times. CJT shares are also trading at a discount to the P&C/air cargo peer group (8.1 times 2026 EV/EBITDA).”
* TD’s Mario Mendonca lowered his Intact Financial Corp. (IFC-T) target to $347 from $354 with a “buy” rating, while Raymond James’ Stephen Boland cut his target to $305 from $310 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $319.40.
“IFC beat our estimates and the consensus by 7-8 per cent,” Mr. Mendonca said. “Q1/26 operating EPS $4.33 (up 8 per cent year-over-year) vs. our $4.03 (cons. $4.06).Top line growth of 4 per cent was in line. EPS beat from higher PYD (lower quality beat) and stronger investment income. Underlying loss ratio missed our est./cons. and was up year-over-year - we view unfavorably. Top line guidance in personal lines CAD is solid, while commercial & specialty remain soft onincreased competition.”
* Stifel’s Suthan Sukumar cut his Kinaxis Inc. (KXS-T) target to $200 from $245 with a “buy” rating. The average is $211.14.
“Kinaxis will be reporting FQ1 results [Wednesday] after-market (management call pre-market on May 7th),” he said. “We continue to see a favorable demand backdrop in light of the ongoing tariff/geopolitical disruptions to global supply chains and expect accelerated ARR growth and demand signals exiting FQ4 to translate to another quarter of solid execution. AI traction remains early days, but we continue to see KXS uniquely positioned to monetize AI with potential for upside over the year given its extensive proprietary and real-time supply chain data, domain expertise, and deep integration into workflows for a highly captive and sticky client base. Thestock is not inexpensive, but with durable industry tailwinds and a F26 SaaS guide already nearly 90-per-cent covered by existing backlog, we see potential for beat-and-raises ahead. KXS remains a top-pick in our coverage, though our target goes lower to $200/share to reflect recent incremental software sector multiple compression.”
* Desjardins Securities’ Jerome Dubreuil reduced his Lumine Group Inc. (LMN-T) target to $36 from $39 with a “buy” rating. The average is $40.50.
“LMN missed expectations on the quarter, likely as a result of a transition period with the Synchronoss acquisition having closed mid-quarter. We do not see AI easily disrupting LMN as Tier-1 telecom companies (LMN’s most important clients) rely on highly customized, ultra-reliable core systems with long, restrictive vendor cycles. We view any near-term drop in the stock due to the miss as a buying opportunity for long-term investors,” said Mr. Dubreuil.
* Raymond James’ Stephen Boland lowered his Propel Holdings Inc. (PRL-T) to $31 from $32 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $29.25.
“We continue to view Propel as a disciplined underwriter, with its AI-driven platform enabling dynamic risk management and underwriting adjustments. The business is benefiting from a tightening industry credit supply environment which is driving incremental demand. Also, ongoing diversification across products, geographies, and funding structures reduces concentration risk. Multiple growth vectors, including LaaS, Freshline, and international expansion, should support sustained growth,” said Mr. Boland.
* TD Cowen’s Sam Damiani bumped his RioCan REIT (REI.UN-T) target to $24 from $23 with a “buy” rating. Other changes include: BMO’s Tom Callaghan to $23.50 from $21 with an “outperform” rating, Raymond James’ Brad Sturges to $23.75 from $23.25 with an “outperform” rating, Scotia’s Mario Saric to $22.25 from $20.50 with a “sector perform” rating, Desjardins Securities’ Lorne Kalmar to $24 from $22 with a “buy” rating and National Bank’s Matt Kornack to $24.25 from $24 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $22.
“RioCan’s operating stats continue to shine with blended leasing spreads reaching another record level in Q1 (up 26 per cent). Management guidance is predicated on mid-teens blended spreads, the trailing four quarter average is now 23 per cent. Needless to say organic growth should come in ahead of forecast. That being said, this exceptional performance isn’t going to translate overnight into outsized SPNOI as the REIT contends with a long WATM on their leases. Nonetheless, as they continue to work through renewals, management did note that they are now aiming for the greater of 3-per-cent annual rent steps and CPI (a sizable positive departure from what was being achieved in legacy contracts). As one can tell, we like this story. That said, this quarter did have its drawbacks in terms of timing related expense items and some erosion in fee and other income line items that are constraining earnings growth,” said Mr. Kornack.
* Previewing the June 4 release of its fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results, National Bank’s Vishal Shreedhar cut his target for Saputo Inc. (SAP-T) shares to $44 from $46, keeping a “sector perform” rating. The average is $48.25.
“Looking forward, we expect investor focus to be on steady execution amid a volatile commodity and uncertain macro backdrop. Given that Saputo has largely extracted benefits from its longstanding capital initiatives, we believe the story will shift to a focus on accelerating organic growth,” said Mr. Shreedhar.
* TD Cowen’s Vince Valentini increased his target for Thomson Reuters Corp. (TRI-T) by $10 to $185 with a “buy” rating, while Scotia’s Maher Yaghi cut his target to US$138 from US$156 with a “sector outperform” rating.. The average is $188.12.
“TRI delivered Q1 results ahead of consensus expectations with Big 3 organic revenue growth of 9 per cent showing no sequential deceleration, yet the stock continues to be under pressure on investor fears of AI-driven disruptions. Competition is rising across several end markets, but we continue to believe that TRI’s competitive advantages position the company to grow in its core Legal, Tax & Accounting, and Corporates segments. To reflect ongoing multiple compression driven by AI disruption concerns across the data services and software peer group, we have further lowered our EV/EBITDA valuation multiple from 15 times to 13 times, bringing our price target to $138 from $156. We continue to believe that the company should deliver 7-8-per-cent annual organic revenue growth over the medium term. We are maintaining our SO based on consistent execution, competitive positioning, and the widening gap between fundamental performance and market sentiment. ,” said Mr. Yaghi.
* RBC’s Bart Dziarski raised his TMX Group Ltd. (X-T) target to $69, exceeding the $62.33 average, from $65, keeping an “outperform” rating. Other chanes include: BMO’s Étienne Ricard to $65 from $62 with an “outperform” rating and Scotia’s Phil Hardie to $71 from $70 with a “sector outperform” rating.
“We believe operating results continue to serve as a powerful reminder of TMX’s strong business model, with double-digit revenue growth and operating leverage driving margin expansion. Despite the recent positive re-rating, TMX is trading at 22.6 times forward P/E, in-line with global exchange peers, and we believe a premium is warranted given TMX’s fundamentally stronger business model. We increase our price target … driven by higher estimates and rolling forward our valuation," said Mr. Dziarski.
* TD’s Aaron Bilkoski increased his Topaz Energy Corp. (TPZ-T) target to $35 from $34 with a “buy” rating, while ATB Cormark’s Patrick O’Rourke moved his target to $35 from $34 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $33.33.
“Operationally and financially, TPZ walks the line between upstream royalty vehicle and a stable contracted infrastructure vehicle. However, we find it is still viewed as a TOU-linked natural gas royalty. With currently weak natural gas prices and increasing investor pressure for WCSB gas producers to trim capex, in this note we provide a glimpse into what TPZ would look like if gas was $0/mcf,” said Mr. Bilkoski.
* TD’s Patrick Sullivan trimmed his target for shares of Wajax Corp. (WJX-T) to $33 from $35 with a “hold” rating, while National Bank’s Maxim Sytchev reduced his target to $34 from $37 with an “outperform” rating. The average on the Street is $35.50.
“The 14-per-cent drop in shares [on Tuesday] is a bit extreme in our view, given adj. EBIT only missed by 6 per cent, in a business characterized by lumpiness,” said Mr. Sullivan. “Weak revenue seems the largest concern, and we candidly do not see cause for near-term optimism. The business is in great position for earnings/ CF generation in a higher volume environment, which we see more as a 2027/2028 story.”