SpaceX Joins Nvidia, Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Taiwan Semiconductor in the $2 Trillion Club. But Will It Last?

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) held its initial public offering (IPO) on June 12, closing the session with a market capitalization of $2.11 trillion. With Broadcom falling since reporting earnings in early June, SpaceX is now the seventh-most-valuable company in the world, behind Nvidia, Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing.

However, long-term investors care more about where SpaceX is going than where it is today. After all, history is littered with companies that peaked around their IPO-day highs -- such as Snowflake and Airbnb in late 2021.

Here's what SpaceX needs to do to grow into its valuation and whether it's a good buy now.

Image source: Getty Images.

The wild ride is just getting started

SpaceX's stock price could do just about anything in the short term due to a combination of insatiable demand, limited supply, and financial engineering. SpaceX raised $75 billion by selling 555.6 million shares at $135 a piece. Those shares, available for public purchase, are known as the float.

For most major companies, the float comprises the vast majority of the shares outstanding because the public, rather than insiders, owns most of the company. Typically, companies that recently went public have a 180-day lockup period where insiders can't sell shares.

But SpaceX is fast-tracking that process through an accelerated lockup policy partially based on the stock's performance. If SpaceX keeps soaring, insiders may be able to sell shares faster and at higher prices to meet demand. And with retail investors, institutional investors, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) clamoring to buy SpaceX shares, the stock could turn into a rocket ship in the short term for reasons unrelated to its true value.

Investors with a five-year or longer investment horizon should take a cautious approach to SpaceX during this period to make sure they aren't buying the stock for the wrong reasons. And the organization behind the S&P 500 index seems to feel the same way.

Index lock out

On June 4, S&P Dow Jones Indices published a press release stating that, after consultation with respondents, the Index Committee decided not to fast-track the inclusion of companies in the S&P 500 based solely on market cap. Meaning that despite SpaceX's size, it must still wait at least 12 months to be added to the index, and only if it meets certain criteria.

The organization's decision not to fast-track SpaceX into the S&P 500 will prevent S&P 500 index funds and ETFs that use the S&P 500 as a benchmark from buying SpaceX, thereby reducing demand. The organization's decision to maintain balance and protect index investors from chasing high-flying stocks is a bit of a red flag, as it could suggest respondents generally thought SpaceX was overvalued.

A growth stock like no other

With just $18.67 billion in 2025 revenue and a net loss of $4.94 billion, SpaceX clearly isn't valued based on where it is today. However, there are some valid reasons why SpaceX could grow into its valuation in time.

SpaceX has virtually no competitors (at scale) and a massive addressable market. Morgan Stanley issued a report earlier this month saying that SpaceX could reach $330 billion in 2030 revenue, including $190 billion from artificial intelligence (AI), and $3.4 trillion in 2040 revenue based on growth from aerospace, satellites, and AI. If SpaceX comes close to the milestones, even investors buying the stock at its current price should enjoy sizable gains.

The company's Starlink network of low Earth orbit satellites finished 2023 with 2.3 million subscribers, which grew to 4.4 million in 2024 and 8.9 million in 2025. Average revenue per user has been declining as Starlink has expanded beyond its core commercial and government contracts to include more residential customers. Starlink exited 2025 with 9,600 broadband and mobile satellites. Between 2023 and the end of 2025, SpaceX transported 80% of the mass sent to orbit, including satellites, astronauts, and other payloads.

SpaceX also owns xAI and Grok, which is a leading AI model, as well as the social media platform X (formerly Twitter). AI could have a greater immediate impact on SpaceX's revenue than scaling Starlink. For example, Alphabet-owned Google is reportedly paying SpaceX $920 a month to use some of its AI infrastructure.

Although an AI model and launching payloads into space may seem like totally different business models, SpaceX hopes to build a network of solar-powered AI compute satellites, which could be a better, more energy-efficient alternative to ground-based data centers. Especially considering data centers in space would be closed-loop systems, so they wouldn't need cooling systems that use a lot of water on Earth.

Keep SpaceX on a watch list (for now)

As long as SpaceX continues to capture the hearts and imaginations of investors, it could easily remain or expand beyond the $2 trillion club. SpaceX could also back up its valuation with earnings by continuing to expand Starlink and monetize xAI, which could provide the cash flow needed to fund capital-intensive endeavors such as orbital data centers.

Love it or hate it, there is truly no company like SpaceX. But given the mechanics of its low float and IPO hype, it's better for investors to wait for public markets to digest SpaceX before diving in first and buying the stock now.

Daniel Foelber has positions in Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Airbnb, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Broadcom, Microsoft, Nvidia, S&P Global, Snowflake, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.