Parti Québécois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon arrives for an election debate in Montreal.Christopher Katsarov/The Canadian Press
As Quebeckers prepare to vote in Monday’s election, all that seems to be standing in the way of a majority Parti Québécois government is the PQ Leader’s own excès de confiance, or overconfidence.
Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has repeatedly dared fate during the final week of the campaign, asking voters to hand him a “strong mandate” and ignore fear-mongering about a future referendum. He has assumed a more openly aggressive stand toward Ottawa, vowing to fight any increase in federal immigration targets and to abolish the office of the lieutenant-governor.
For all the late-campaign bounce in Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon’s step, however, he appears poised to become Quebec’s next premier with less than a third of the popular vote. A divided electorate and the collapse of the Coalition Avenir Québec have pushed the PQ into majority territory, thanks to a double-digit lead among francophone voters.
CAQ Leader Christine Fréchette’s fresh start withers in the end
CAQ Leader Christine Fréchette has spent the final days of the campaign in damage-control mode after what appears to have been a staged effort to create the impression of election interference from the United States aimed at helping the PQ. The Quebec media have not been kind to her amid revelations that CAQ insiders conducted the scheme behind her back. The CAQ’s implosion now ranks up there in the annals of election campaigns going off the rails.
Ms. Fréchette revived the CAQ’s prospects after winning the party leadership and premiership in April. The Aug. 27 launch of the election campaign coincided with an escalation in the Canada-U.S. trade war, and she seized on fears over the economic fallout from the conflict to present herself as the best leader to handle the crisis.
Ultimately, her personal popularity obscured a deep desire for change after eight years of a CAQ government that had become mired in too many messes of its own creation. That reality came back to bite Ms. Fréchette during three televised debates. Though the CAQ was never favoured to win the election, it now risks being shut out of the National Assembly.
Quebec Liberal Party Leader Charles Milliard was the least well-known leader at the start of the race, and he was widely ridiculed when the Liberal campaign bus appeared without his face on it. (An omission the party later rectified.) But Mr. Milliard’s strong performance in the debates and a solid campaign finish could benefit Liberal candidates in tight races. He will need to win in his own Eastern townships riding, which the PQ has targeted, to secure a seat in the National Assembly.
Opinion: The Quebec election could result in a ripple, not a wave
Liberal dominance in non-francophone Quebec all but ensures the party of winning enough seats to form the Official Opposition. Just how many remains to be seen. The QLP has a history of outperforming the polls and Mr. Milliard’s unambiguously federalist platform could yet draw francophone voters whose main objective is avoiding another referendum.
Even so, Éric Duhaime appears poised to become the de facto leader of the opposition. His Quebec Conservative Party is likely to sweep the Quebec City and Beauce regions, winning more than the 12 seats needed to obtain official party status in the legislature. The QCP could also finish second in the popular vote in francophone Quebec.
Such a result would be a vindication for Mr. Duhaime, who was long dismissed by many pundits as an oddity on the Quebec political scene. His relentless calls to replace the statist “Quebec model” that has guided governments since the Quiet Revolution have resonated among millennial Quebeckers fed up with high taxes and deteriorating public services.
Aside from Mr. Duhaime, however, the QCP has an exceedingly weak slate of candidates that includes anti-vaccine zealots and conspiracy theorists who threaten only to embarrass their leader if they win their seats. Mr. Duhaime will need to keep a short leash on a caucus of not-ready-for-prime-time MNAs.
Québec Solidaire co-spokesperson (and de facto leader) Ruba Ghazal has impressed Quebeckers with her refreshingly upbeat campaign and spurning of the woke excesses that hurt her party’s 2022 campaign. The Lebanese-born Ms. Ghazal, the daughter of Palestinian refugees who immigrated to Quebec, has avoided polarizing topics such as the war in Gaza, focusing squarely on housing and affordability issues.
Still, with little traction in non-urban Quebec, the progressive QS will be lucky just to hang on to the seats it currently holds in Montreal and Quebec City. Indeed, the QS incumbent in the Montreal riding of Verdun risks losing her seat to Liberal Antoine Dionne Charest, the son of former premier Jean Charest. He is seen by some as a potential future QLP leader.
With a PQ win on Monday, Quebec federalists will need all the help they can get.