Dec. 18 was International Migrants Day, when protesters came to the San Ysidro border crossing in Tijuana to oppose U.S. president-elect Donald Trump's proposed crackdowns. Canada saw a surge in asylum claims during the last Trump presidency, and could again if he follows through on mass deportations.GUILLERMO ARIAS/AFP via Getty Images
A backlog of 267,000 cases at the tribunal that hears asylum claims in Canada risks rising even further if a predicted influx of asylum claimants crosses the border from the U.S. after president-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House, immigration experts say.
The Immigration and Refugee Board (IRB) has a backlog four times higher than it was two years ago as a flood of claims has left it unable to keep up.
The backlog means refugee claimants must wait almost four years before their cases are decided, creating hardship and uncertainty, and immigration lawyers say the problem will continue unless Ottawa gives the tribunal more resources.
“More people coming over the border will mean longer wait times,” said Toronto-based immigration lawyer David Garson. If Mr. Trump follows through on his election promise to deport 11 million migrants living in the U.S. illegally, “you are going to have a massive influx of individuals, and there’s going to be a huge amount of claims,” Mr. Garson said. “Some will be legitimate; some will not be legitimate.”
He said Canada should help people who legitimately need assistance, but not those he says are gaming the system. He noted that people with pending refugee claims receive health care coverage and work permits while they wait.
Mr. Trump’s threats have prompted fears among members of Parliament and premiers that many of the targeted migrants may try to cross into Canada illegally and claim asylum here.
The IRB listed 266,975 cases pending as of November.
The number of would-be refugees coming into Canada, either by crossing the border illegally or by making claims at official checkpoints such as border posts at road crossings or airports, has increased significantly over the past decade. Ten years ago, there were about 7,000 cases pending before the board.
The IRB has been unable to keep up with the volume. Between Jan. 1 and Sept. 30 of this year, about 146,828 cases have been referred to the IRB, while the board has only finalized about 41,755, not including claims that were abandoned or withdrawn. The IRB said the backlog data only include people who applied for refugee status within Canada, and don’t cover anyone who applied from outside the country.
The backlog of cases has grown even as the IRB increased staffing and spending, with 2,579 people working for the tribunal this year compared with 954 in 2015, according to Treasury Board data. The IRB’s departmental plans show it was forecast to spend $266-million in 2023-24 on adjudication of immigration and refugee cases, up from $200-million in 2021-22 and $83-million in 2016-17. The board did not, when asked, explain what is being done to cope with the backlog.
During the pandemic, advocates for migrant workers – many of whom were deemed essential – pressed for permanent residency for all. More recently, Ottawa has put stricter limits on work and study permits.Graham Hughes/The Canadian Press
Winnipeg immigration lawyer David Matas said a huge increase in the number of work and study permits awarded by the government in recent years has fuelled the increase in asylum claims from people who face deportation after their permits have expired. “The system is not beyond redemption,” he said. “The current backlog is temporary, the result of a spurt in work and study permits, which is receding.”
He agreed that an increase in claims by people leaving the U.S. after Mr. Trump takes office could make the problem worse.
Warda Shazadi Meighen, a Toronto-based immigration lawyer at Landings LLP, said the solution is clear: The IRB needs more staff. “To address the backlog, in the long term, we need to be more thoughtful about immigration programs, refugee protection needs, and levels plans,” she said, referring to the annual immigration target set by the government. “In the short term, we must hire, at least temporarily, additional resources to clear the backlog.” The government must also invest in technology to speed up processing, she added.
Ms. Meighen said the growing number of pending cases places a strain on government resources and hurts the claimants themselves. “The backlogs create hardships for refugee claimants, leaving them in prolonged uncertainty and unable to reunite with family members overseas,” she said. “The prospect of individuals fleeing to Canada to escape deportation under U.S. policies during Trump’s presidency could add to the backlog in Canada’s immigration and refugee system.”
Renée LeBlanc Proctor, spokesperson for Marc Miller, federal Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship, said: “While the IRB has been able to scale up its efforts to address growing inventory, there’s more work to be done to ensure that it is able to keep up.”
“Minister Miller continues to explore a number of options that would protect the integrity and independence of the IRB, so that its proceedings are not being abused as a way to extend one’s stay where there is no legitimate claim.”
RCMP officers stand at Roxham Road in Hemmingford, Que., during a December patrol along the Canada-U.S. border. Many asylum seekers once used Roxham Road for a legal loophole to enter Canada, which has since closed: Authorities are now ordered to turn people back from here.Carlos Osorio/Reuters
In an effort to stem the flow of refugee claimants from the U.S. into Canada through irregular border crossings, such as the one at Roxham Road in Quebec, the federal government and the U.S. last year updated the Safe Third Country Agreement to cover the entire land border. Under the agreement, most people claiming asylum who arrive from the U.S. are sent back. Until March, 2023, the agreement applied only at official land border crossings.
The update also added a provision that claimants would only be sent back if they made their claim within 14 days of arriving. That means people who are in the country for more than two weeks can make an asylum claim without the Safe Third Country Agreement applying.
Vancouver immigration lawyer Richard Kurland said the 14-day provision will make the IRB backlog worse. ”Today, if you sneak into Canada and hide for 14 days or more, you get to make your refugee claim here, and it will take about four years to get your hearing. There is a better chance of President Trump finishing his term before you get your refugee decision,” he said. “And that assumes very few of the 11 million potential Trump deportees opt to buy time in Canada, rather than face Homeland deportation.”
Action taken last year to stop the flow of migrants through the unofficial Roxham Road border crossing appeared to do little to curb the overall number of claims being added to the system.
New cases referred to the IRB fell by 40 per cent in April, 2023, compared with a month earlier, but quickly recovered and set new monthly records by the end of 2023. The reduction in new claims made by people intercepted by the RCMP sneaking into Canada since the closing of Roxham Road has been offset by an increase in claims made at airports and land crossings.
Ottawa recently launched a global online ad campaign warning asylum seekers that making a claim can be difficult. The ads are in 11 languages, including Urdu, Hindi, Tamil and Spanish, and they will pop up alongside web searches about claiming asylum in Canada.
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