Smaller condos in the Greater Toronto Area are a weak spot compared with the national market, said Robert Kavcic, senior economist with Bank of Montreal.COLE BURSTON/The Canadian Press
The season finale of the spring real estate market in Toronto has introduced new plot twists in the condo segment and offer night cliffhangers for homeowners.
“When you think you have figured it out, there’s a shift – there’s a change and it’s real time,” says broker Christopher Bibby of Re/Max Hallmark Bibby Group Realty. “We never know when these switches are going to be flipped.”
The latest variation Mr. Bibby has observed is a change in the mindset of condo owners who have aspirations of moving up to a house.
“Young people with condos are almost in a panic because they’re seeing houses take off,” says Mr. Bibby.
The numbers bear that theory out, according to Robert Kavcic, senior economist with Bank of Montreal, who sees signals that the floor under Canada’s hardest-hit housing markets – including Toronto – may be stabilizing.
“This was always going to happen first for single-family, and we have some early signs that we’ve hit that checkpoint,” he says. “A return to firm price growth is still some time off, and the condo market is a different, weaker animal altogether.”
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In Ontario, condo prices across the province dropped 8.3 per cent in May from May of 2025, while prices for single-detached homes were down approximately half that amount in the same period, Mr. Kavcic notes, adding that the segment has now posted two months of modest gains.
Smaller condos in the Greater Toronto Area are a notable weak spot compared with the fairly stable national market, he adds.
“People who want to get into freehold have fear,” says Mr. Bibby. “If we sit and wait for the condo to go up, we might be missing an opportunity,” is the attitude of buyers, he says.
As a result, they are more willing to lower the asking price of the condo if that gets the unit sold on a timely basis.
One couple who bought during the pandemic now need more space, he says, but they want to sell before buying because they need to hit a certain number on the sale of the condo.
Another set of clients is content to live in their condo for an extended time if it allows them to find the house of their dreams.
Mr. Bibby studies the aims, risk tolerance and salability of an existing property for each buyer and seller.
“I’m assessing how calm and resilient the client is and making them comfortable,” he says, contrasting the research needed today with the years when the market was on a tear. “For so long, so much was ‘rinse and repeat’.”
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Decoding the current market every week remains a challenge, says Mr. Bibby, who notes that sales gained some momentum in the second quarter as interest rates steadied.
Sales of large condos in areas attractive to downsizers have picked up, he says.
Mr. Bibby recently sold a 3,000-square-foot condo unit at 55 Stewart St. in the King Street West area for full price after listing it with an asking price of $3.295-million. Another unit at 99 Harbour Square sold after a long stretch on the market.
In the single-family bracket, tightening supply in May sparked some bidding wars, which in turn encouraged more sellers to list their homes with an attention-grabbing asking price and a deadline for reviewing offers.
As a result, some sellers were too ambitious, he says.
In June, Mr. Bibby lined up six houses for one couple to look at. Two sold, and four were relisted at a higher price after a failed offer night.
“Everybody slapped on offer nights, and it has not entirely worked out,” he says.
One set of buyers Mr. Bibby represents are interested in a house in the Beaches which languished on the market for a year after starting with an asking price around the $4-million mark.
Recently, the sellers brought in a new agent, who set an asking price of $2.99-million and an offer date.
Mr. Bibby launched a so-called bully bid above the asking price in advance of the offer night, but the homeowners turned it down.
“Offer night came, and there were no offers,” he says.
Mr. Bibby touched base with the listing agent to remind the sellers that his buyers were still willing to come to the table, but the sellers decided to relist the house $500,000 higher.
In late June, it was still sitting, he says.
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Patrick Rocca, broker with Bosley Real Estate, did not set a date for reviewing offers when he listed a four-bedroom detached house with a swimming pool in Leaside because the asking price of $4.2-million is out of reach for many buyers.
“We got three offers within the first 48 hours,” says Mr. Rocca.
The upscale house at 52 Kildeer Cres. is about 10 years old and backs onto a ravine.
The highest bid came from a buyer who had another house to sell and wanted a long closing as a result.
Mr. Rocca had a look at the top bidder’s house and figured it might take some time to sell. He advised his client that that scenario could result in the buyer asking for an extension or an abatement in price down the road.
“The sellers didn’t want to take the risk,” he says.
They accepted the second-highest offer, and the house sold for $21,000 above asking.
In another recent deal, a three-bedroom semi-detached house listed with an asking price of $1.729-million received five offers and sold for $1.87-million.
But some sales are sputtering.
In the midtown neighbourhood of Davisville, Mr. Rocca’s clients bid on a house listed with an asking price of $1.499-million.
The price was set at an attractive level in order to spur competition on offer night, but the sellers spurned all bids.
The house was relisted with an asking price of $1.75-million, which sends a signal to the market.
“People who do that don’t get it,” says Mr. Rocca. “You’re telling buyers you want $1.7-million. It’s not worth $1.7-million.”
Meanwhile, Mr. Rocca is hearing from potential sellers who are wondering if they should list this summer or wait for the fall.
Their reasons for selling range from divorce to financial pressure to a “power of sale” property, he says.
People who purchased in 2022 and 2023 are selling for about 20 per cent less, he says.
“I think there was a lot of exuberance during COVID,” says Mr. Rocca. “It’s coming back to bite a lot of people.”
National Bank of Canada economists Matthieu Arseneau and Alexandra Ducharme say many households appear to be under stress in light of rising energy prices and persistently high food inflation.
Inflation in Canada accelerated to 3.2 per cent in May, its highest rate since September 2023, the economists note.
In their view, the Bank of Canada should look past the recent oil shock and leave interest rates unchanged for now.
As for homeowners deciding whether to list this summer, Mr. Rocca recommends they wait until after Labour Day in the family neighbourhoods of Leaside and Davisville, where he does most of his business. But the summer of 2026 may be more lively than usual because of the slow start to the year, he says.
“If you don’t have to sell, fall is better,” he says. “But if you have to sell now, it’s not a bad time.”