From oil prices to travel, our experts answer your questions about what’s happening in Venezuela

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On Jan. 3, U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in an early morning raid that included attacks on the capital. He is awaiting trial in the U.S., accused by President Donald Trump of heading up a drug cartel.

Who’s in charge of Venezuela after Nicolás Maduro’s capture? Latest updates on Donald Trump’s plans

Washington says key figures in the Venezuelan government will “run” the country on America’s behalf, and Mr. Trump plans to take advantage of Venezuela’s oil reserves.

The news is changing fast, but our experts are here to help. We asked readers to send in their questions about the developing situation in Venezuela and beyond. From travel to oil prices to how Canada will be affected, we answer your questions.

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Politics

How are ordinary Venezuelans responding to the current transition of power after years of extreme economic hardship and political repression?

Nathan VanderKlippe, international correspondent: With concern, quiet and apparent normalcy – but also fear. And some hope. It wasn’t long after U.S. forces seized Mr. Maduro that the country’s remaining leadership called for life to go on. It did. After a few days of shocked silence and a rapid increase in some prices, everyday business resumed.

But Mr. Maduro’s removal has brought new oppression. Armed motorcycle militias, the country’s feared colectivos, have enforced dictates from on high, particularly against anything considered a celebration of Mr. Maduro’s departure. While some political prisoners have been released, others have been newly jailed.

Venezuela has issued very few, if any, new foreign journalist visas in the past few weeks. But Venezuelans can still travel into Colombia, and I interviewed people crossing the border to purchase goods. They all refused to discuss anything political. That was not their only fear: Some are also nervous that economic tumult lies ahead.

But that is far from the only view. Others are optimistic, hopeful that the end of Mr. Maduro marks the beginning of something better than the past quarter-century of economic collapse and human flight. Perhaps, they say, things will improve enough that they will witness the return of some of the nearly eight million people who have left since 2014.

Colombia, Panama and Grenada face a new Monroe Doctrine with dread and déjà vu

My big concern is the potential implementation of the Monroe doctrine. My question is would our European and Asian partners help us diversify our export economy in the face of American unreliability? Would we stand together in a hegemonic world?

Adrian Morrow, U.S. correspondent: Mark Carney is certainly hoping so. What he said last week in Davos and ran on in last year’s election is that Canada has to lessen its dependence on the U.S. and work with other countries to stand up to the economic demands of the world’s hegemons.

At least on a theoretical level, Canada’s other trading partners like this idea, too. We saw the warm reception Mr. Carney received at the World Economic Forum. And Mexico, which is in a similar position to Canada vis-à-vis the U.S., seems happy to work together to manage the mutual threat to the USMCA.

The complication here is what it’s always been. Canada sits next to the world’s largest consumer market while being geographically distant from its other trading partners. So as much as Canadians may want to replace Canada-U.S. economic activity with Asian, European or Latin American trade, the relatively higher costs of the latter make it hard. It remains to be seen whether Carney’s efforts on this front appreciably change the numbers. Typically about 75 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S. Will that be significantly replaced by other markets in a year or two? We’ll see.

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There’s also a question of political will. Donald Trump has so far been very successful in dividing and conquering on the trade front. Last year, he got a string of countries to agree to trade deals favouring the U.S. under the pressure of higher tariffs. Going back further, Ontario Premier Doug Ford openly suggested that Canada should throw Mexico under the bus if that’s what it takes to please Mr. Trump in the USMCA review.

Maybe the willingness of other countries to work together has increased since then. But when push comes to shove, we’ve seen relatively little international appetite for standing up to Mr. Trump. The dominant strategy seems to be appeasing him while running the clock down on his time in office.

I don’t understand why the old regime, minus Maduro, is still in power. Or is it that they are simply taking orders from Trump?

Morrow: Mr. Trump has clearly concluded that he can get what he wants out of Venezuela (oil, for one) without dismantling its dictatorship. While the chavista brand of authoritarianism was a useful political foil for him on the campaign trail (see his constant accusations that the “socialist” Democrats wanted to turn the U.S. into Venezuela), he has shown no trepidation working with Mr. Maduro’s underlings, so long as they do what he says. He has even repeatedly praised Delcy Rodríguez, Mr. Maduro’s former deputy and now Venezuela’s de facto leader.

One read is that Mr. Trump has concluded that regime change is overly messy and complicated and that the U.S.’s interests (getting oil, cracking down on drug trafficking) can be achieved without changing much in Venezuela.

Another, and related, way of looking at it is that Mr. Trump will work with anyone, so long as they agree to take orders from him.

It’s possible that the U.S. will still try to restore democracy in Venezuela at some point. But it seems equally possible that María Corina Machado’s gifting of her Nobel medallion to Mr. Trump will ultimately get her, and Venezuelans who want the dictatorship gone, nothing.

The oil market

Is it true that Venezuela’s oil is bitumen, like much of Northern Alberta’s crude? If so, does U.S. control of Venezuelan oil imply that the U.S. demand for Canadian oil will shrink?

Emma Graney, energy reporter: Yes, the Venezuelan oil reserves that would likely be developed under U.S. control are similar to the heavy, thick crude that comes from the oil sands in Northern Alberta – but there are important differences. Alberta’s oil sands region includes various basins, all of which contain varying grades of crude that require different extraction methods. Venezuelan oil is similar to crude in northeastern Alberta’s Clearwater basin, in that it flows more easily than the bitumen found around Fort McMurray.

That makes it easier to get out of the ground, so it’s not quite as costly to produce as, say, a massive oil sands mine. However, it’s still thick enough that it needs to be diluted before it can be transported 200 kilometres or so from the landlocked basin where the bulk of reserves are located to upgrading and export infrastructure.

Demand for Canadian oil in the U.S. could decline in the long term, but it won’t be for years. Firstly, Venezuelan oil infrastructure needs billions of dollars of investment before it can pump increased volumes into the market. Secondly, U.S. refineries – particularly those in the Midwest, the destination for the bulk of Alberta’s oil sands crude – would need to be able to get the stuff, which would require pipelines to be expanded and their flow direction reversed.

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What can Canadian business do in the time it takes Venezuela to recover to add value to our oil resources instead of exporting low value-added diluted bitumen?

Graney: Given the time it takes to build refineries, there isn’t a whole lot of leeway here to add value to our bitumen barrels, though boosting petrochemical production is one option.

Various agencies, including Alberta Innovates and federal government-funded CanmetENERGY, are also researching ways to use bitumen for things other than combustion (think production of carbon fibre or hydrogen), but those technologies are not yet at a commercial scale.

The oil sector views increased access to more overseas markets, particularly Asia, as its greatest opportunity – and that could be achieved before Venezuelan infrastructure recovers. China, for example, is building more facilities that combine refining and petrochemical production, for which Canadian crude is an excellent feedstock.

Travel

I have booked a resort vacation in Grenada next month. Is that now a risk not worth taking?

Mariya Postelnyak, consumer affairs reporter: Few could’ve predicted last month that U.S. troops would swoop in and capture the Venezuelan President, even with what seems like an endless stream of geopolitical shocks we’ve been served lately. That unpredictability is what makes this a tough question to answer.

While the events in Venezuela earlier this month did ground dozens of flights to the Caribbean, including those headed to Grenada, many Canadian carriers adapted quickly. Air Canada, for example, offered a flexible rebooking policy for flights to several destinations, including Grenada, which only ended on Jan. 6, when service resumed as scheduled.

Canadians worried about Caribbean travel plans after U.S. attack on Venezuela

As of that date, the carrier said all flights to the Caribbean and South America have been operating as scheduled since our last report. Aviation data firm Cirium also reported that flights from Canada to the Caribbean generally resumed as normal just a day after the incident.

Those two facts should offer some reassurance.

But if you want some added peace of mind, standard trip cancellation insurance (which applies when a trip is disrupted before it starts) or trip interruption insurance (for when a trip has already begun) can probably give you some added comfort.

Cancellation coverage usually costs around 10 per cent of the sum insured. That means a good policy for a $5,000 trip would cost roughly $450 to $500. Trip interruption insurance is cheaper but often has a lower cap.

Both can typically be added after a trip is booked, provided the emergency situation is not yet publicly known – as far as we know, there currently aren’t any public alerts for Grenada.

Submissions have been edited for length and clarity.