A banner on a bus features images of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and China's Xi Jinping with a message that reads in Spanish: 'An example for the world,' during a government-organized rally opposing U.S. intervention, in Caracas, Dec. 13, 2025.Cristian Hernandez/The Associated Press
While it remains uncertain what kind of situation will shake out in Venezuela after the shocking U.S. attack and abduction of its leader, Nicolás Maduro, one thing is clear: President Donald Trump expects his country to be the prime beneficiary.
Mr. Trump has threatened blockades and further military action if Caracas does not open up the Venezuelan economy – particularly its massive oil reserves – to U.S. companies. But his openly imperialist aims could put Washington in conflict with another global power it has accused of having similar designs on Latin America: China.
China is by far the biggest international player in Venezuela, which is home to the world’s largest proven oil reserves. As of late last year, more than 80 per cent of Venezuelan oil exports were heading to China, according to analysis by Reuters.
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During a meeting with Mr. Maduro last year in Moscow, Chinese President Xi Jinping said the two countries were “good partners of mutual trust and common development” and praised the “ironclad friendship” between Beijing and Caracas.
Since China upgraded relations with Venezuela in 2023 to an “all-weather comprehensive strategic partnership” – the only Latin American country to bear this designation – “exchanges across various fields and at all levels have been vigorous, with continuous growth in bilateral trade and new progress in investment co-operation and people-to-people exchanges,” Mr. Xi said.
China’s links to Venezuela go back decades, with the state-run China National Petroleum Corp., the fifth-largest company in the world by revenue, beginning operations in the South American country in 1997. Today, CNPC has stakes in at least four major oil field projects there, including a roughly 50-50 joint venture with government-owned Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA).
“Chinese entities have, alongside Russian companies, been pretty much the lifeline for the Venezuelan oil sector since sanctions,” said Michal Meidan, head of China energy research at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. “They’re hugely significant.”
(Contrary to Mr. Trump’s claims that Venezuela “stole our oil” – by which he means the assets of U.S. oil companies that were expropriated in 2007 because they refused to give PDVSA majority control – the other major foreign player in the country is Houston-based Chevron, which accounts for about a quarter of Venezuelan oil exports, about half of which end up in the U.S.)
Vehicles drive past the El Palito refinery in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela, Dec. 21, 2025.Matias Delacroix/The Associated Press
Since 2000, Venezuela has received more than US$105-billion in loans and grants from China, according to research by AidData. These include billions of dollars linked to PDVSA exports and funding for oil and gas projects, power plants and railways, including a US$7.5-billion project to connect the cities of Tinaco and Anaco in the country’s north.
While Venezuela renegotiated some US$50-billion in loans via debt-for-oil swaps, it still has some US$12-billion in outstanding debts to Chinese backers, according to research by Beyond the Horizon, a Brussels-based think tank.
Though the bulk of China’s investment in Venezuela is through state-owned banks and entities such as CNPC, private Chinese companies have also expanded their footprint in the country in recent years.
In 2025, China Concord Resources Corp. began developing two oil fields in a deal with PDVSA estimated at about US$1-billion, with the intention of exporting 60,000 barrels a day by the end of this year. Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers BYD and Geely also have a presence in Venezuela. Trade between the two countries reached US$6.4-billion last year, up more than 50 per cent year-over-year, Beyond the Horizon found.
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For all this, China’s engagement is more about politics than economics. Venezuela’s economic collapse under Mr. Maduro has stung Chinese creditors, and even as it has provided diplomatic backing to Caracas over the past five years, Beijing has been wary of extending further financial support.
Despite being Venezuela’s No. 1 customer, China’s purchases of oil from the country only account for 4 per cent of total imports, according to Chinese customs data. Even Chinese companies specializing in refining Venezuelan crude have plenty of other options should there be a major drop in supply, Dr. Meidan said. The wider Chinese economy is unlikely to blink, thanks to a policy of energy diversification and continuing electrification.
“Relatively speaking, Venezuela’s share in Chinese oil imports is quite small,” said Dong Xiucheng, a professor of energy economics at the China University of Petroleum. “This is also due to the fact Venezuela’s oil exports have been under long-term U.S. sanctions, which has led to a decline in production capacity and output.”
Nevertheless, any transformation of the Venezuelan economy under U.S. leadership or force will likely necessitate dealing with the Chinese players who currently prop the country up.
After the U.S. intervened in Panama to force the sale of two key ports on the country’s eponymous canal owned by Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison Holdings Ltd., Beijing announced an antitrust review, putting the transaction on hold.
Similarly, China is unlikely to stand by if state-owned and private Chinese companies face being forced out of the Venezuelan market. Any major disputes could threaten the tenuous trade war truce agreed to by Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi late last year; breaking it would have far greater impacts on both economies than anything taking place in Latin America.
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“This isn’t something the Chinese are going to put their hands up and say: We’re walking away from this,” Dr. Meidan said. “They’ll have the strategic patience to wait and see. They’re not averse to working with anyone.”
A moderate Venezuelan government that opens up its economy to U.S. investment while maintaining existing relations could greatly benefit China, said Prof. Dong, as this would likely result in the dropping of U.S. sanctions, increasing oil supply and driving global prices down.
Yue Su, principal economist for China at the Economist Intelligence Unit, agreed that, despite its backing of Mr. Maduro, Beijing would probably be willing to work with a future government of any stripe.
“China is likely to focus less on ideology and more on practical concerns: protecting its assets, avoiding exposure to U.S. sanctions and potentially reassessing aspects of its foreign policy in the region,” she said in an e-mail. “The overriding objective would be to safeguard economic interests rather than to support any particular political figure or ideological position.”
Dr. Meidan said that, in terms of oil in particular, Chinese companies have “got the financing, got the know-how, got the contacts and connections” to reform the sector.
She compared the situation to the uncertainty China faced after the U.S. invasion of Iraq, when many assumed Chinese players would be ejected or marginalized. Today, they’re among the biggest investors in the Iraqi oil sector.
In Venezuela, too, she said, “it’s not a foregone conclusion that they’ll be kicked out.”
With reports from Alexandra Li in Beijing