Morning. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Canada Day speech on unity precedes a challenging period of separatist movements in this country and economic strain with the United States.
Up first
In the news
Oil: West Coast pipeline has yet to secure private-sector backing, Carney confirms.
Economy: Kevin Warsh underlines the Fed’s political independence and signals a focus on inflation.
Fisheries: Federal officials tout the economic benefits of an increased northern cod catch limit.
Prime Minister Mark Carney at Canada Day celebrations in Ottawa.Justin Tang/The Canadian Press
In focus
Carney’s Canada enters a stormy new era
Catch up: If you were making an effort to put away your screens to celebrate Canada’s birth, here’s what you might have missed.
- The Trump administration has declined to renew the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.
- That sets the stage for drawn-out trade negotiations, social-media threats spawning from the Oval Office and annual reviews until 2036, after which the treaty will expire if no extension agreement is reached.
- The agreement stays in effect until a deal is made or one of the countries decides to give its six months’ exit notice.
- Perhaps most notably north of the border, uncertainty has been cemented as a baseline for doing business.
How did we get here, what’s the state of play and what might happen next? In practice, the new phase of annual reviews will feel like a continuation of the status quo, Globe economics reporter Mark Rendell writes. Trade discussions that have gotten under way in recent months are expected to continue over the summer.
It seems very likely that we’re heading toward separate bilateral deals, Rendell reports. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has said he wants to maintain the “load-bearing pillars” of the trilateral deal while layering separate bilateral “protocols” with Canada and Mexico on top.
Dominic LeBlanc, the minister responsible for Canada-U.S. trade, has met Team USA several times in recent months to discuss non-tariff trade barriers, and said at an event in June that bilateral deals were now his baseline assumption.
You can read more about what comes next in the negotiations here.
» The country at a crossroads: Facing a new era of trade with the U.S. and separatist movements in Alberta and Quebec, the Prime Minister used his traditional Canada Day speech to stress the importance of unity.
“There will always be forces that want to divide us,” Carney said in a video released earlier in the day. “They forget this country’s founding insight: that unity is not uniformity, that our differences are strengths to nurture rather than risks to manage, and that our values serve as an unshakeable foundation.”
“When we seek unity, unity grows.”
Tests of togetherness:
- Oct. 5: In the Quebec election, a victory of the leading Parti Québécois could trigger an independence referendum.
- Oct. 19: Voters in Alberta decide whether to launch the legal process toward separating from Canada.
» The stories we tell: Carney’s speech fits into a gleaming narrative of Canada that he has been telling, Shannon Proudfoot writes, while avoiding the dark clouds ahead.
“Carney tells us that Canada is a nation of builders, and what we build are sturdy, tangible things like mines, ports, roads, railways and pipelines, along with newfangled elements such as AI. Modular housing and nuclear power are where it’s at again, and there is the overarching pledge that we will do this – all of it, somehow – at speeds not seen in generations."
The Prime Minister continues to enjoy very high public approval ratings. But in the second year of his mandate with a majority in his back pocket, Proudfoot writes, Canadians are going to start asking whether his grand economic plan is making a difference in their lives and communities.
» The merits of Fortress North America: The absence of an agreement with the U.S. will make material improvements hard to reach.
A former top Republican said Canada would be wise to pitch building “Fortress North America” as a way to win U.S. support for a new continental trade agreement.
Paul Ryan, who was Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives when the last pact was struck, says that while there will be ups and downs in negotiations, the Trump administration wants to keep North American economies aligned as the U.S. competes with China.
“There’s light at the end of the trade tunnel, there’s enormous benefit to the U.S. in keeping a Fortress North America mindset,” he said in an interview with The Globe’s Andrew Willis.
Charted
When Canadians are really retiring
Canada’s retirement age has not increased in 99 years, but maybe it should, Hanif Bayat writes. Many Canadians are already working longer out of necessity, the prospect of higher payments or by choice.
Quoted
It’s a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity and I’m so excited to go and nervous and sweaty – and I’m gonna be even sweatier in Houston.
— Chris O’Connor, equity trader
A wave of Canadians are heading to Houston for a historic World Cup match.
Up next
More files we’re following
By the numbers: Statistics Canada drops June auto sales, shining a spotlight on an industry caught in Donald Trump’s tariff crosshairs. Wall Street is locked in on a critical U.S. jobs report that could inform the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path.
Morning update
Global markets were muted ahead of key U.S. jobs data and amid heavy selling of computer chip stocks in Asia.
Wall Street futures were mixed ahead of a market holiday tomorrow, while TSX futures edged lower.
Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 was up 0.56 per cent in morning trading. Britain’s FTSE 100 rose 0.42 per cent, Germany’s DAX gained 0.55 per cent and France’s CAC 40 advanced 0.8 per cent.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei closed 2.47 per cent lower, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.76 per cent.
The Canadian dollar traded at 70.43 U.S. cents.