Good morning. In focus today, we look at what Canada’s major-project push will require on the ground – and why Alberta separatism has become part of the investment conversation.
Up first
In the news
Separation trial: An Alberta judge has struck down a petition for an independence referendum in response to a legal challenge, ruling the government had a duty to consult with First Nations.
Deals: Equinox Gold Corp. is bidding to join the ranks of North America’s largest gold producers with an all-stock, $7-billion offer for Orla Mining Ltd.
Labour: The Bank of Canada says there is no clear evidence to date that artificial intelligence has led to widespread job losses, but further adoption of the technology could lead to permanent changes in the economy.
Joe Dion (left), Susannah Pierce, Chris Avery and The Globe's Emma Graney. Major ideas on major projects.Todd Korol/The Globe and Mail
In focus
How to harness all of Alberta’s energy
Alberta is leading Canada in real GDP growth. It has relatively low exposure to the U.S. trade war, the youngest population in Canada and a reasonable cost of living. It’s also emerging as an AI powerhouse.
But unstable oil prices are converging with higher unemployment and uncertainty over the future of energy infrastructure. In Calgary yesterday, The Globe brought together key decision-makers to coach the province and country through major projects, political divides and economic crises.
“Some of the projects that will define the next decade are taking shape right here,” Sven List, an executive with Export Development Canada, told an audience of business and political leaders to kick off the event.
A call to kill the carbon tax
The fate of some of those projects will depend on whether carbon pricing still exists on an industrial level, said Jon McKenzie, chief executive of Calgary-based energy company Cenovus Energy Inc.
The federal government’s carbon tax does nothing to induce the oil and gas sector to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions, he said in the wake of a report by The Globe on Tuesday that Ottawa and Alberta are close to finalizing an accord on industrial carbon pricing that would see the fee rise to $130 a tonne by 2040.
Even with price levels that critics described as too far on the horizon to render meaningful carbon reduction, the price levels under discussion do not alter the “fundamental premise” of the issue facing industry, McKenzie said.
“Whether it’s $130 a tonne or $170 a tonne, there is no other jurisdiction that does this,” he said. “But the other piece that will be important is what is the stringency and the effectiveness of this over time. Does it continue to grow and become a bigger burden to us? Or is this something that is going to be pushed out into the future?”
Cenovus CEO Jon McKenzie speaks with senior Globe editor Ryan MacDonald.Todd Korol/The Globe and Mail
Major projects
A need for speed
Leaders of national projects said yesterday that political urgency will not be enough to get pipelines, ports, mines, power projects and trade corridors built.
The federal government’s Major Projects Office is meant to streamline reviews and align departments, provinces, territories, Indigenous partners and other stakeholders around national-interest projects.
But Susannah Pierce, former president and country chair of Shell Canada, said capital will flow only to projects that can offer returns, certainty and customers.
Execution depends on local support as much as political support, Pierce said – particularly in British Columbia, where many First Nations are not under treaty and proponents need to address rights and title questions from the start.
“It is the ground game,” she said. “It is getting community engagement right. It is about siting the project in such a way that you have buy-in from the communities, engagement [with] the First Nations right up front.”
Joe Dion, chief executive officer and director of the Western Indigenous Pipeline Group, said Indigenous equity can no longer be treated as a late-stage addition to pipelines, ports and other major projects.
Any new pipeline will require First Nations partnerships from the start, said Dion, whose group has been pursuing Indigenous ownership in the Trans Mountain pipeline system.
“They can’t own it without First Nations partnerships,” he said. “First Nations have to be at the helm.”
Separation anxiety
‘Any risk creates uncertainty’
There were no clear champions of Alberta separatism evident on stage yesterday, but the issue nevertheless entered all the chats.
Separation wasn’t seen as likely by most leaders. But they shared a common concern: The sentiment adds uncertainty for investors at a moment when Canada is trying to attract capital for major projects.
“Any risk creates uncertainty,” Pierce said. “So, adding to the list of risks that need to be managed when you’re taking a substantial investment decision, this could be one.”
Dion said his Treaty Six First Nation does not see separation as realistic – and that a stronger case for poor treatment by Ottawa could be made by Indigenous peoples.
“If anybody should talk about separation, it should be us,” he said.
The AI factor
‘Everything should be just fine’
Former Bank of Canada governor Steve Poloz ended the day with a cautionary note. The rapid advance in artificial intelligence amounts to a fourth industrial revolution – following steam power, electricity and computers – that will fundamentally reshape economies, societies and politics. Canada could end up richer. But there’s turbulence ahead.
Lots of it.
“We’ve already got a big dispersion of income. It’s going to get worse. We think politics is hard to deal with today. It’s going to get worse. You think there’s more geopolitical adventurism going on … that’s what happened each of the other three times. So it’s gonna get worse. And so the volatility that we’re living in today is maybe nothing compared to what we’ll be in five years from now,” he said.
“Apart from that though, everything should be just fine.”
With files from Mark Rendell and Emma Graney
Charted
Condos drag on Calgary
Calgary posted a year-over-year decline in housing prices for the first time since 2020, according to new data from Wahi-RPS. That marks a major reversal from strong gains in 2024 and early 2025, when the city‘s average home prices increased in excess of 10 per cent. Much of the downward pressure is coming from condo values.
Quoted
The lessons we learn here – hard work, resilience and believing in yourself – stay with you your entire career.
— Atiba Hutchinson, Brampton soccer legend
Why do so many of Canada’s great soccer players come from Brampton?
Up next
More files we’re following today
In China: U.S. President Donald Trump visits Beijing.
By the numbers: Home sales in Canada rose 0.7 per cent in April, the first increase in half a year as falling home prices brought potential buyers back into the market, Rachelle Younglai reports.
Before the bell: Earnings we’re tracking today include Canadian Tire Corp.; Brookfield Corp.; Canada Goose Holdings Inc.; Keyera Corp. and Quebecor Inc.
Morning update
Global markets were on the rise, lifted by technology stocks, though concerns over stalled U.S.-Iran peace talks kept investors cautious.
Wall Street futures were in positive territory, while TSX futures followed sentiment higher.
Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 was up 0.44 per cent in morning trading. Britain’s FTSE 100 rose 0.17 per cent, Germany’s DAX gained 1.22 per cent and France’s CAC 40 advanced 0.54 per cent.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei closed 0.98 per cent lower, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was little changed.
The Canadian dollar traded at 72.92 U.S. cents.